Prediction of pesticide acute toxicity using two-dimensional chemical descriptors and target species classification.

Previous modelling of the median lethal dose (oral rat LD50) has indicated that local class-based models yield better correlations than global models. We evaluated the hypothesis that dividing the dataset by pesticidal mechanisms would improve prediction accuracy. A linear discriminant analysis (LDA) based-approach was utilized to assign indicators such as the pesticide target species, mode of action, or target species - mode of action combination. LDA models were able to predict these indicators with about 87% accuracy. Toxicity is predicted utilizing the QSAR model fit to chemicals with that indicator. Toxicity was also predicted using a global hierarchical clustering (HC) approach which divides data set into clusters based on molecular similarity. At a comparable prediction coverage (~94%), the global HC method yielded slightly higher prediction accuracy (r2 = 0.50) than the LDA method (r2 ~ 0.47). A single model fit to the entire training set yielded the poorest results (r2 = 0.38), indicating that there is an advantage to clustering the dataset to predict acute toxicity. Finally, this study shows that whilst dividing the training set into subsets (i.e. clusters) improves prediction accuracy, it may not matter which method (expert based or purely machine learning) is used to divide the dataset into subsets.

Comparison of global and mode of action-based models for aquatic toxicity.

The ability to estimate aquatic toxicity is a critical need for ecological risk assessment and chemical regulation. The consensus in the literature is that mode of action (MOA) based toxicity models yield the most toxicologically meaningful and, theoretically, the most accurate results. In this study, a two-step prediction methodology was developed to estimate acute aquatic toxicity from molecular structure. In the first step, one-against-the-rest linear discriminant analysis (LDA) models were used to predict the MOA. The LDA models were able to predict the MOA with 85.8-88.8% accuracy for broad and specific MOAs, respectively. In the second step, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model corresponding to the predicted MOA was used to predict the acute aquatic toxicity value. The MOA-based approach was found to yield similar external prediction accuracy (r(2) = 0.529-0.632) to a single global MLR model (r(2) = 0.551-0.562) fit to the entire training set. Overall, the global hierarchical clustering approach yielded a higher combination of accuracy and prediction coverage (r(2) = 0.572, coverage = 99.3%) than the other approaches. Utilizing multiple two-dimensional chemical descriptors in MLR models yielded comparable results to using only the octanol-water partition coefficient (log K(ow)).

MOAtox: A comprehensive mode of action and acute aquatic toxicity database for predictive model development.

The mode of toxic action (MOA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity and as an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, the development of quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and other models has been limited by the availability of comprehensive high quality MOA and toxicity databases. The current study developed a dataset of MOA assignments for 1213 chemicals that included a diversity of metals, pesticides, and other organic compounds that encompassed six broad and 31 specific MOAs. MOA assignments were made using a combination of high confidence approaches that included international consensus classifications, QSAR predictions, and weight of evidence professional judgment based on an assessment of structure and literature information. A toxicity database of 674 acute values linked to chemical MOA was developed for fish and invertebrates. Additionally, species-specific measured or high confidence estimated acute values were developed for the four aquatic species with the most reported toxicity values: rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), and the cladoceran (Daphnia magna). Measured acute toxicity values met strict standardization and quality assurance requirements. Toxicity values for chemicals with missing species-specific data were estimated using established interspecies correlation models and procedures (Web-ICE; http://epa.gov/ceampubl/fchain/webice/), with the highest confidence values selected. The resulting dataset of MOA assignments and paired toxicity values are provided in spreadsheet format as a comprehensive standardized dataset available for predictive aquatic toxicology model development.