Explaining human interactions on the road by large-scale integration of computational psychological theory.

When humans share space in road traffic, as drivers or as vulnerable road users, they draw on their full range of communicative and interactive capabilities. Much remains unknown about these behaviors, but they need to be captured in models if automated vehicles are to coexist successfully with human road users. Empirical studies of human road user behavior implicate a large number of underlying cognitive mechanisms, which taken together are well beyond the scope of existing computational models. Here, we note that for all of these putative mechanisms, computational theories exist in different subdisciplines of psychology, for more constrained tasks. We demonstrate how these separate theories can be generalized from abstract laboratory paradigms and integrated into a computational framework for modeling human road user interaction, combining Bayesian perception, a theory of mind regarding others' intentions, behavioral game theory, long-term valuation of action alternatives, and evidence accumulation decision-making. We show that a model with these assumptions-but not simpler versions of the same model-can account for a number of previously unexplained phenomena in naturalistic driver-pedestrian road-crossing interactions, and successfully predicts interaction outcomes in an unseen data set. Our modeling results contribute to demonstrating the real-world value of the theories from which we draw, and address calls in psychology for cumulative theory-building, presenting human road use as a suitable setting for work of this nature. Our findings also underscore the formidable complexity of human interaction in road traffic, with strong implications for the requirements to set on development and testing of vehicle automation.

Parallel probability density approximation.

Probability density approximation (PDA) is a nonparametric method of calculating probability densities. When integrated into Bayesian estimation, it allows researchers to fit psychological processes for which analytic probability functions are unavailable, significantly expanding the scope of theories that can be quantitatively tested. PDA is, however, computationally intensive, requiring large numbers of Monte Carlo simulations in order to attain good precision. We introduce Parallel PDA (pPDA), a highly efficient implementation of this method utilizing the Armadillo C++ and CUDA C libraries to conduct millions of model simulations simultaneously in graphics processing units (GPUs). This approach provides a practical solution for rapidly approximating probability densities with high precision. In addition to demonstrating this method, we fit a piecewise linear ballistic accumulator model (Holmes, Trueblood, & Heathcote, 2016) to empirical data. Finally, we conducted simulation studies to investigate various issues associated with PDA and provide guidelines for pPDA applications to other complex cognitive models.

The Quality of Response Time Data Inference: A Blinded, Collaborative Assessment of the Validity of Cognitive Models.

Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed cognitive models, which translate observed variables into psychologically interesting constructs. Response time models, in particular, assume that response time and accuracy are the observed expression of latent variables including 1) ease of processing, 2) response caution, 3) response bias, and 4) non-decision time. Inferences about these psychological factors, hinge upon the validity of the models' parameters. Here, we use a blinded, collaborative approach to assess the validity of such model-based inferences. Seventeen teams of researchers analyzed the same 14 data sets. In each of these two-condition data sets, we manipulated properties of participants' behavior in a two-alternative forced choice task. The contributing teams were blind to the manipulations, and had to infer what aspect of behavior was changed using their method of choice. The contributors chose to employ a variety of models, estimation methods, and inference procedures. Our results show that, although conclusions were similar across different methods, these "modeler's degrees of freedom" did affect their inferences. Interestingly, many of the simpler approaches yielded as robust and accurate inferences as the more complex methods. We recommend that, in general, cognitive models become a typical analysis tool for response time data. In particular, we argue that the simpler models and procedures are sufficient for standard experimental designs. We finish by outlining situations in which more complicated models and methods may be necessary, and discuss potential pitfalls when interpreting the output from response time models.

Dynamic models of choice.

Parameter estimation in evidence-accumulation models of choice response times is demanding of both the data and the user. We outline how to fit evidence-accumulation models using the flexible, open-source, R-based Dynamic Models of Choice (DMC) software. DMC provides a hands-on introduction to the Bayesian implementation of two popular evidence-accumulation models: the diffusion decision model (DDM) and the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA). It enables individual and hierarchical estimation, as well as assessment of the quality of a model's parameter estimates and descriptive accuracy. First, we introduce the basic concepts of Bayesian parameter estimation, guiding the reader through a simple DDM analysis. We then illustrate the challenges of fitting evidence-accumulation models using a set of LBA analyses. We emphasize best practices in modeling and discuss the importance of parameter- and model-recovery simulations, exploring the strengths and weaknesses of models in different experimental designs and parameter regions. We also demonstrate how DMC can be used to model complex cognitive processes, using as an example a race model of the stop-signal paradigm, which is used to measure inhibitory ability. We illustrate the flexibility of DMC by extending this model to account for mixtures of cognitive processes resulting from attention failures. We then guide the reader through the practical details of a Bayesian hierarchical analysis, from specifying priors to obtaining posterior distributions that encapsulate what has been learned from the data. Finally, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach leads to a quantitatively cumulative science, showing how to use posterior distributions to specify priors that can be used to inform the analysis of future experiments.

Modeling visual search using three-parameter probability functions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

In this study, we applied Bayesian-based distributional analyses to examine the shapes of response time (RT) distributions in three visual search paradigms, which varied in task difficulty. In further analyses we investigated two common observations in visual search-the effects of display size and of variations in search efficiency across different task conditions-following a design that had been used in previous studies (Palmer, Horowitz, Torralba, & Wolfe, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 37, 58-71, 2011; Wolfe, Palmer, & Horowitz, Vision Research, 50, 1304-1311, 2010) in which parameters of the response distributions were measured. Our study showed that the distributional parameters in an experimental condition can be reliably estimated by moderate sample sizes when Monte Carlo simulation techniques are applied. More importantly, by analyzing trial RTs, we were able to extract paradigm-dependent shape changes in the RT distributions that could be accounted for by using the EZ2 diffusion model. The study showed that Bayesian-based RT distribution analyses can provide an important means to investigate the underlying cognitive processes in search, including stimulus grouping and the bottom-up guidance of attention.

Use of supplements by Taiwanese adults aged 19-44 during 2005-2008.

The aim of the study was to understand the use of supplements in Taiwan. Data used in this study came from the 2005-2008 Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan. The total sample available for analysis of supplement use included 973 adults (485 men and 488 women), aged 19-44 years. Survey data were weighted to adjust for the survey design effect and to make the sample nationally representative. Our results showed that 33.2% of Taiwanese adults aged 19-44 took supplements (26.6% of men and 40.0% of women). Gender was the only demographic factor found to be associated with the total number of supplement types taken. Men were more likely to take only one supplement. In contrast, women were 2.6 times more likely than men to take two or more supplements. The most commonly taken supplements by adults were multivitamins and minerals (35.8%), followed by vitamin B group (20.6%) and calcium (9.3%). We found that in both men and women, nutrient intakes from supplements exceeded DRIs for vitamins A, D, E, B-1, B-2, B-6, B-12, pantothenic acid and biotin. Men were more likely than women to take excess iron. Women were more likely than men to take excess vitamin C and niacin. Our study results may be used by government agencies to develop policies regarding supplement use in Taiwan.