Developing and validating a nomogram for early predicting the need for intestinal resection in pediatric intussusception.

Purpose: Develop and validate a nomogram for predicting intestinal resection in pediatric intussusception suspecting intestinal necrosis. Patients & methods: Children with intussusception were retrospectively enrolled after a failed air-enema reduction in the outpatient setting and divided into two groups: the intestinal resection group and the non-intestinal resection group. The enrolled cases were randomly selected for training and validation sets with a split ratio of 3:1. A nomogram for predicting the risk of intestinal resection was visualized using logistic regression analysis with calibration curve, C-index, and decision curve analysis to evaluate the model. Results: A total of 547 cases were included in the final analysis, of which 414 had non-intestinal necrosis and 133 had intestinal necrosis and underwent intestinal resection. The training set consisted of 411 patients and the validation cohort included 136 patients. Through forward stepwise regression, four variables (duration of symptoms, C-reaction protein, white blood cells, ascites) were selected for inclusion in the nomogram with a concordance index 0.871 (95% confidence interval: 0.834-0.908). Conclusion: We developed a nomogram for predicting intestinal resection in children with intussusception suspecting intestinal necrosis after a failed air-enema based on multivariate regression. This nomogram could be directly applied to facilitate predicting intestinal resection in pediatric intussusception suspecting necrosis.

Haemostatic indexes for predicting intestinal necrosis in children with intussusception.

BACKGROUND: To determine risk factors for intestinal necrosis in intussusception cases among children with failed non-surgical reduction for intussusception. METHODS: Totally, 540 hospitalized individuals with unsuccessful air-enema reduction in our hospital between November 2010 and November 2020 were assessed in this retrospective study. The 540 intussusception cases were divided into the intestinal necrosis and non-intestinal necrosis groups. Haemostatic parameters, demographic and clinical features were assessed. Predictors of intestinal necrosis were examined by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 540 patients included, 113 showed intestinal necrosis. This intestinal necrosis group had a longer duration of symptom or length of illness, younger ages, higher platelet counts, fibrinogen amounts and d-dimer levels (all P = 0.000) compared with the non-intestinal necrosis group. Multivariable analysis revealed that duration of symptom (odds ratio (OR) 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.23, P = 0.000), fibrinogen (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.10-1.31, P = 0.010) and d-dimer (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.91-2.28, P = 0.000) independently predicted intestinal necrosis in individuals undergoing surgical reduction for intussusception. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that d-dimer amounts had the largest area under the curve for predicting intestinal necrosis. CONCLUSION: On admission, long duration of symptom, high fibrinogen and d-dimer levels are critical risk factors for intestinal necrosis development in children with unsuccessful non-surgical reduction. d-Dimer levels have the best predictive value for intestinal necrosis.