Homophily-Based Social Group Formation in a Spin Glass Self-Assembly Framework.

Homophily, the tendency of humans to attract each other when sharing similar features, traits, or opinions, has been identified as one of the main driving forces behind the formation of structured societies. Here we ask to what extent homophily can explain the formation of social groups, particularly their size distribution. We propose a spin-glass-inspired framework of self-assembly, where opinions are represented as multidimensional spins that dynamically self-assemble into groups; individuals within a group tend to share similar opinions (intragroup homophily), and opinions between individuals belonging to different groups tend to be different (intergroup heterophily). We compute the associated nontrivial phase diagram by solving a self-consistency equation for "magnetization" (combined average opinion). Below a critical temperature, there exist two stable phases: one ordered with nonzero magnetization and large clusters, the other disordered with zero magnetization and no clusters. The system exhibits a first-order transition to the disordered phase. We analytically derive the group-size distribution that successfully matches empirical group-size distributions from online communities.

Sex Differences in Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients with SARS-CoV-2-Infection Admitted to Intensive Care Units in Austria.

IMPORTANCE: A male predominance is reported in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 alongside a higher mortality rate in men compared to women. OBJECTIVE: To assess if the reported sex bias in the COVID-19 pandemic is validated by analysis of a subset of patients with severe disease. DESIGN: A nationwide retrospective cohort study was performed using the Austrian National COVID Database. We performed a sex-specific Lasso regression to select the covariates best explaining the outcomes of mechanical ventilation and death using variables known before ICU admission. We use logistic regression to construct a sex-specific "risk score" for the outcomes using these variables. SETTING: We studied the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in Austria. PARTICIPANTS: 5118 patients admitted to the ICU in Austria with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 03/2020-03/2021. EXPOSURES: Demographic and clinical characteristics, vital signs and laboratory tests, comorbidities, and management of patients admitted to ICUs were analysed for possible sex differences. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The aim was to define risk scores for mechanical ventilation and mortality for each sex to provide better sex-sensitive management and outcomes in the future. RESULTS: We found balanced accuracies between 55% and 65% to predict the outcomes. Regarding outcome death, we found that the risk score for pre-ICU variables increases with age, renal insufficiency (f: OR 1.7(2), m: 1.9(2)) and decreases with observance as admission cause (f: OR 0.33(5), m: 0.36(5)). Additionally, the risk score for females also includes respiratory insufficiency (OR 2.4(4)) while heart failure for males only (OR 1.5(1)). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Better knowledge of how sex influences COVID-19 outcomes at ICUs will have important implications for the ongoing pandemic's clinical care and management strategies. Identifying sex-specific features in individuals with COVID-19 and fatal consequences might inform preventive strategies and public health services.

Meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions explain local differences in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria.

The drivers behind regional differences of SARS-CoV-2 spread on finer spatio-temporal scales are yet to be fully understood. Here we develop a data-driven modelling approach based on an age-structured compartmental model that compares 116 Austrian regions to a suitably chosen control set of regions to explain variations in local transmission rates through a combination of meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions and mobility. We find that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission, leading in combination to a doubling of the transmission rates compared to regions with more favourable weather. We conjecture that regions with little mitigation measures for large events that experience shifts toward unfavourable weather conditions are particularly predisposed as nucleation points for the next seasonal SARS-CoV-2 waves.