Algorithms for early detection of silent liver fibrosis in the primary care setting - a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Fatty liver disease affects almost 30% of the adult population worldwide. Most patients are asymptomatic, and there is not a linear relationship between exposure to risk factors and the risk of developing fibrosis. The combination of a very large, asymptomatic risk population where only a few percent will develop life-threatening liver disease is a growing diagnostic challenge for the health services. Accurate fibrosis assessment in primary care is limited by poor correlation with liver blood tests and low availability of elastography. Non-invasive tests are promising tools, but little is known about their diagnostic accuracy in low-risk populations. AREAS COVERED: A scoping review was conducted to identify articles that focused on the current use of biomarkers and algorithms in primary care for the detection of patients with fatty liver disease in need of referral for further work-up. EXPERT OPINION: Currently available algorithms for targeted screening for liver fibrosis perform better than the individual routine liver blood tests or liver ultrasonography. However, primary care physicians urgently need algorithms with even higher diagnostic accuracies than what is available today. The main limitation of the existing widely accessible algorithms, such as the FIB-4, is the large number of false-positive tests, resulting in overdiagnosis and futile referrals to secondary care.

Validation of scores of PRO-C3 to predict liver-related events in alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk prediction in alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO-C3 models to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO-C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. RESULTS: In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow-up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2-6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7-5.6). On top of PRO-C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO-C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C-statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.78), PRO-C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C-statistics. Compared to low-risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high-risk patients (>11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9-26.8, p < .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p < .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: PRO-C3-based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.

Artificial intelligence outperforms standard blood-based scores in identifying liver fibrosis patients in primary care.

For years, hepatologists have been seeking non-invasive methods able to detect significant liver fibrosis. However, no previous algorithm using routine blood markers has proven to be clinically appropriate in primary care. We present a novel approach based on artificial intelligence, able to predict significant liver fibrosis in low-prevalence populations using routinely available patient data. We built six ensemble learning models (LiverAID) with different complexities using a prospective screening cohort of 3352 asymptomatic subjects. 463 patients were at a significant risk that justified performing a liver biopsy. Using an unseen hold-out dataset, we conducted a head-to-head comparison with conventional methods: standard blood-based indices (FIB-4, Forns and APRI) and transient elastography (TE). LiverAID models appropriately identified patients with significant liver stiffness (> 8 kPa) (AUC of 0.86, 0.89, 0.91, 0.92, 0.92 and 0.94, and NPV ≥ 0.98), and had a significantly superior discriminative ability (p < 0.01) than conventional blood-based indices (AUC = 0.60-0.76). Compared to TE, LiverAID models showed a good ability to rule out significant biopsy-assessed fibrosis stages. Given the ready availability of the required data and the relatively high performance, our artificial intelligence-based models are valuable screening tools that could be used clinically for early identification of patients with asymptomatic chronic liver diseases in primary care.

Diagnostic accuracy of routine liver function tests to identify patients with significant and advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis.

AIMS: Alcohol is the leading cause of cirrhosis, but most patients go undetected until decompensation occurs despite frequent contacts with the healthcare system. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of routine liver function tests compared with indirect and direct fibrosis markers and to assess doctors' abilities to diagnose significant and advanced alcohol-related liver fibrosis. METHODS: This study was a retrospective evaluation of liver function tests for diagnosing alcohol-related liver disease compared to indirect fibrosis tests, the ELF test, and transient elastography. We also surveyed nine doctors who were presented with 225 patient cases from a cross-sectional, biopsy-controlled, single-centre study that evaluated diagnostic tools for alcohol-related liver fibrosis. The doctors assessed each case for significant (≥F2) or advanced (≥F3) fibrosis. We assessed inter-rater variability with Fleiss' kappa. RESULTS: Routine liver function tests had poor diagnostic accuracy (highest area under the ROC curve for platelet count = 0.752) and poor sensitivities (10%-67%) when using the upper or lower normal limits as cut-offs. Indirect fibrosis indices performed significantly better but were still inferior to the ELF test and transient elastography. The nine doctors disagreed substantially in their predictions, with Fleiss' kappa of 0.24 (95% CI0.22-0.26) and 0.51 (0.44-0.55) for significant and advanced fibrosis. All nine doctors exhibited poor case-finding abilities with sensitivities of 22-93%. CONCLUSIONS: When using routine liver function tests, doctors may fail to diagnose more than half of all alcohol-overusing patients with advanced fibrosis, probably because they rely on upper and lower normal limits of routine liver function tests.

Prehospital prognosis is difficult in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease often require prehospital emergency treatment. This enables patients who are less ill to be treated on-site and to avoid hospital admission, while severely ill patients can receive immediate ventilatory support in the form of intubation. The emergency physician faces difficult treatment decisions, however, and prognostic tools that could assist in determining which patients would benefit from intubation and ventilator support would be helpful. The aim of the current study was to identify prehospital clinical variables associated with mortality from acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. As part of the study, we estimated the 30-day mortality for patients with this prehospital diagnosis. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed using data collected by the mobile emergency care unit in Odense, Denmark, combined with data from the patients' medical records. Patients with the tentative diagnosis of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease between 1st July 2011 and 31st December 2013 were included in the study. RESULTS: Based on data from 530 patients, we found no statistically significant associations between prehospital clinical variables and mortality, apart from a minor association between older age and higher mortality. The overall 30-day mortality was 10%, while that for patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 30%. CONCLUSION: No specific prehospital prognostic factors for mortality were identified. Prognostic assessment and the decision to withhold treatment for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease seem inadvisable in the prehospital setting.

Mortality and prognostic factors of patients who have blood cultures performed in the emergency department: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early identification and treatment of patients with severe infection improve their prognosis. The aims of this study were to describe the 30-day mortality and to identify prognostic factors among blood-cultured patients in a medical emergency department (MED). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a hospital-based cohort study including all adult (≥15 years old) blood-cultured patients at the MED at Odense University Hospital between 1 August 2009 and 31 August 2011. RESULTS: During the study period, 5499/11 988 (45.9%) patients had blood cultures performed within 72 h of arrival and were included in the study. Of those included, 2631 (47.8%) were men, median age 69 years (range 15-103), and 418 (7.6%) were diagnosed with bacteraemia. The overall 30-day mortality among blood-cultured patients was 11.0% (10.2-11.9). In a multivariate Cox regression model, age of more than 80 years [hazard ratio (HR) 4.6 (95% CI 3.6-6.0)], at least two organ failure [HR 3.6 (2.9-4.5)], bacteraemia [HR 1.4 (1.1-1.8)], Charlson Comorbidity Index of at least 2 h [HR 1.7 (1.3-2.0)], SIRS [HR 1.5 (1.2-1.7)], a history of alcohol dependency [HR 1.7 (1.3-2.3)] and late drawing of blood cultures 24-48 h after arrival [HR 1.7 (1.3-2.2)] were found to be prognostic factors of mortality among blood-cultured patients in the MED. CONCLUSION: Among blood-cultured patients in the MED, we found an 11.0% overall 30-day mortality. Factors associated with 30-day mortality were age more than 80 years, at least two organ failure, bacteraemia, Charlson Comorbidity Index of at least 2, SIRS, a history of alcohol dependency and late drawing of blood cultures.