Inflammatory macrophage-associated 3-gene signature predicts subclinical allograft injury and graft survival.

Late allograft failure is characterized by cumulative subclinical insults manifesting over many years. Although immunomodulatory therapies targeting host T cells have improved short-term survival rates, rates of chronic allograft loss remain high. We hypothesized that other immune cell types may drive subclinical injury, ultimately leading to graft failure. We collected whole-genome transcriptome profiles from 15 independent cohorts composed of 1,697 biopsy samples to assess the association of an inflammatory macrophage polarization-specific gene signature with subclinical injury. We applied penalized regression to a subset of the data sets and identified a 3-gene inflammatory macrophage-derived signature. We validated discriminatory power of the 3-gene signature in 3 independent renal transplant data sets with mean AUC of 0.91. In a longitudinal cohort, the 3-gene signature strongly correlated with extent of injury and accurately predicted progression of subclinical injury 18 months before clinical manifestation. The 3-gene signature also stratified patients at high risk of graft failure as soon as 15 days after biopsy. We found that the 3-gene signature also distinguished acute rejection (AR) accurately in 3 heart transplant data sets but not in lung transplant. Overall, we identified a parsimonious signature capable of diagnosing AR, recognizing subclinical injury, and risk-stratifying renal transplant patients. Our results strongly suggest that inflammatory macrophages may be a viable therapeutic target to improve long-term outcomes for organ transplantation patients.

Assessment of Validity of a Blood-Based 3-Gene Signature Score for Progression and Diagnosis of Tuberculosis, Disease Severity, and Treatment Response.

Importance: The World Health Organization identified the need for a non-sputum-based triage test to identify those in need of further tuberculosis (TB) testing. Objective: To determine whether the 3-gene TB score can be a diagnostic tool throughout the course of TB disease, from latency to diagnosis to treatment response, and posttreatment residual inflammation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nested case-control study analyzed the 3-gene TB score in 3 cohorts, each focusing on a different stage of TB disease: (1) the Adolescent Cohort Study profiled whole-blood samples from adolescents with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, some of which progressed to active TB (ATB), using RNA sequencing; (2) the Brazil Active Screen Study collected whole blood from an actively screened case-control cohort of adult inmates from 2 prisons in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, for ATB from January 2016 to February 2016; and (3) the Catalysis Treatment Response Cohort (CTRC) identified culture-positive adults in primary health care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa, from 2005 to 2007 and collected whole blood for RNA sequencing from patients with ATB at diagnosis and weeks 1, 4, and 24. The CTRC patients also had positron emission tomography-computed tomography scans at diagnosis, week 4, and week 24. Analyses were performed from September 2017 to June 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: A 3-gene messenger RNA expression score, measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction or RNA sequencing, was evaluated for distinguishing the following: individuals who progressed to ATB from those who did not, individuals with ATB from those without, and individuals with slower treatment response during TB therapy. Results: Patients evaluated in this study included 144 adolescents from the Adolescent Cohort Study (aged 12-18 years; 96 female and 48 male), 81 adult prison inmates from the Brazil Active Screen Study (aged 20-72 years; 81 male), and 138 adult community members from the CTRC (aged 17-64 years; 81 female and 57 male). The 3-gene TB score identified progression from latent M tuberculosis infection to ATB 6 months prior to sputum conversion with 86% sensitivity and 84% specificity (area under the curve [AUC], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96) and patients with ATB in the Brazil Active Screen Study cohort (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78-0.95) and CTRC (AUC, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99). It also identified CTRC patients with failed treatment at the end of treatment (AUC, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.83-1.00). Collectively, across all cohorts, the 3-gene TB score identified patients with ATB with 90% sensitivity, 70% specificity, and 99.3% negative predictive value at 4% prevalence. Conclusions and Relevance: Across 3 independent prospective cohorts, the 3-gene TB score approaches the World Health Organization target product profile benchmarks for non-sputum-based triage test with high negative predictive value. This gene expression diagnostic approach should be considered for further validation and future implementation.