Prevalence, Disease-free, and Overall Survival of Contemporary Patients With Renal Cell Carcinoma Eligible for Adjuvant Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials.

INTRODUCTION: Designing adjuvant trials is challenging because of uncertainties of prevalence and outcome of high-risk renal cell cancer (RCC) despite use of validated risk scores. Our objective is to investigate how differences in eligibility criteria may impact on potential study results in RCC adjuvant trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS: RECUR is a multicenter European database capturing patient and tumor characteristics, recurrence patterns, and survival of those curatively treated for non-metastatic RCC from 2006 to 2011 without any adjuvant therapy. We used RECUR to evaluate prevalence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) according to eligibility criteria of immunotherapy-based adjuvant trials IMMotion 010 (NCT03024996), Checkmate 914 (NCT03138512), Keynote-564 (NCT03142334), RAMPART (NCT03288532), and PROSPER (NCT03055013). RESULTS: Of 3024 relevant patients in RECUR, 408 (13.5%), 725 (24%), 609 (20.1%), 1363 (45.1%), and 1071 (35.4%) met eligibility criteria for IMMotion-010, CheckMate-914, Keynote-564, RAMPART, and PROSPER, respectively. The median and 5-year DFS Kaplan-Meier estimates in RECUR corresponding to each trial eligibility criteria were: not reached and 69.6% for RAMPART; not reached and 64.5% for PROSPER; 109.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 83.9-134.6 months) and 57% for CheckMate-914; 75.8 months (95% CI, 52.7-98.8 months) and 54.3% for Keynote-564; and 43.6 months (95% CI, 30.8-56.4 months) and 45% for IMMotion-010. Our analysis may be limited by the retrospective design. CONCLUSIONS: RECUR provides estimated DFS and OS benchmarks for placebo arms of adjuvant checkpoint inhibitor studies and hence likely time to trial reporting. Well-documented contemporary registries rather than past risk models should be used to design future adjuvant trials.

External validation of a predictive model of survival after cytoreductive nephrectomy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Recent trials have emphasized the importance of a precise patient selection for cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN). In 2013, a nomogram was developed for pre- and postoperative prediction of the probability of death (PoD) after CN in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. To date, the single-institutional nomogram which included mostly patients from the cytokine era has not been externally validated. Our objective is to validate the predictive model in contemporary patients in the targeted therapy era. METHODS: Multi-institutional European and North American data from patients who underwent CN between 2006 and 2013 were used for external validation. Variables evaluated included preoperative serum albumin and lactate dehydrogenase levels, intraoperative blood transfusions (yes/no) and postoperative pathologic stage (primary tumour and nodes). In addition, patient characteristics and MSKCC risk factors were collected. Using the original calibration indices and quantiles of the distribution of predictions, Kaplan-Meier estimates and calibration plots of observed versus predicted PoD were calculated. For the preoperative model a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. RESULTS: Of 1108 patients [median OS of 27 months (95% CI 24.6-29.4)], 536 and 469 patients had full data for the validation of the pre- and postoperative models, respectively. The AUC for the pre- and postoperative model was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78), respectively. In the DCA the preoperative model performs well within threshold survival probabilities of 20-50%. Most important limitation was the retrospective collection of this external validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this external validation, the pre- and postoperative nomograms predicting PoD following CN were well calibrated. Although performance of the preoperative nomogram was lower than in the internal validation, it retains the ability to predict early death after CN.