Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil.

This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.

Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil / Tendências de fecundidade durante sucessivas epidemias de doenças infecciosas novas: Zika e COVID-19 no Brasil / Tendencias de fecundidad durante los sucesivos brotes de nuevas enfermedades infecciosas: Zika y COVID-19 en Brasil

This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.

O objetivo desta contribuição de dados é estimar as tendências de fecundidade no Brasil nos anos 2010 e início dos anos 2020 durante epidemias consecutivas de doenças infecciosas novas, ou seja, Zika vírus e COVID-19. Utilizamos dados do Ministério da Saúde e do Registro Civil Nacional de 2011-2021 para calcular as taxas mensais de fecundidade nos níveis nacional e estadual. Também utilizamos o modelo ARIMA sazonal para prever taxas de fecundidade por mês e por estado em 2021, e comparamos essas previsões com as taxas de fecundidade observadas. Encontramos que as taxas de fecundidade eram estáveis entre 2011 e 2015, sem variação significativa, seguido por um declínio abrupto durante o surto de Zika em 2016, e seguido por sua vez por um retorno aos níveis pré-Zika depois do fim da epidemia. Além disso, para avaliar o efeito da pandemia de COVID-19, comparamos as taxas observadas e previstas de 2020-2021, mostrando que as quedas geralmente eram maiores nas taxas observadas do que nas previstas, porém sem significância estatística. Argumentamos que o recrudescimento da pandemia de COVID-19 em 2021 poderá levar a mais quedas nas taxas, na medida em que as mulheres não tenham tido tempo suficiente para reagir e se ajustarem aos efeitos da epidemia de Zika. Também discutimos a importância da disponibilidade oportuna de dados sobre nascidos vivos durante uma crise de saúde pública com consequências imediatas para as taxas de fecundidade.

El objetivo de esta aportación de datos es estimar las tendencias de fecundidad en Brasil en la década de 2010 y principios de 2020, durante el período de brotes consecutivos de nuevas enfermedades infecciosas -ZIKV y COVID-19. Se usaron datos procedentes del Ministerio de Salud y del Registro Civil Nacional (ARPEN) desde 2011-2021 para calcular mensualmente las tasas de fecundidad en nivel nacional y en el estado. Se utilizó el ARIMA estacional para pronosticar las tasas de fecundidad por mes y estado en 2021, y se compararon estas predicciones con las tasas de fecundidad observadas. Encontramos que las tasas de fecundidad se mantuvieron estables entre 2011 y 2015, sin variaciones significativas, seguido de un fuerte descenso durante el brote de Zika en 2016, para posteriormente volver a los niveles anteriores al Zika tras el fin de la epidemia. Asimismo, con el fin de evaluar el efecto de la pandemia de COVID-19, hicimos comparaciones con lo observado y la previsión de tasas desde 2020-2021, que muestran que los descensos fueron en general mayores para los índices observados que para los previstos, aunque insignificantes desde el punto de vista estadístico. Sostenemos que el resurgimiento de la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2021 podría provocar nuevos descensos, ya que las mujeres podrían no haber tenido suficiente tiempo para adaptarse a los efectos de la epidemia de Zika. También se discute la importancia de disponer a tiempo de los datos de los nacidos vivos durante una crisis de salud pública con consecuencias inmediatas para las tasas de fecundidad.

Lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus DC. Stapf) essential oil microparticles: Development, characterization, and antioxidant potential.

Maltodextrin (DE 20) and gelatin (4:1, w/w, respectively) were investigated as encapsulant materials for lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus DC. Stapf) essential oil microencapsulation by freeze-drying. Three formulations were prepared: M1 (5% essential oil), M2 (10% essential oil), and M3 (15% essential oil), all in w/w. Microparticles were characterized by Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, water activity measurement, thermogravimetric and derivative thermogravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, and antioxidant activity analysis. Yield and microencapsulation efficiency were also determined. The results showed the promising potential of maltodextrin and gelatin as encapsulants and confirmed the feasibility of preparing C. citratus essential oil microparticles by freeze-drying. Microencapsulation improved the oil's thermal and oxidative stability, providing protection from volatilization and environmental conditions. Scanning electron microscopic examination of M1 revealed a closed, pore-free surface. M1 had higher yield and microencapsulation efficiency, showing great commercial potential for its reduced storage, transport, and distribution costs.

Microencapsulation of sweet orange essential oil (Citrus aurantium var. dulcis) by liophylization using maltodextrin and maltodextrin/gelatin mixtures: Preparation, characterization, antimicrobial and antioxidant activities.

This study evaluated maltodextrin (MD) and gelatin (GEL) in different ratios (SO1, MD only; SO2, MD and GEL = 2:1; and SO3, MD and GEL = 1:1, respectively) as wall materials to microencapsulation of sweet orange essential oil (SOEO, 10% w/w). SOEO microspheres were obtained by emulsification/lyophilization and characterized regarding the microencapsulation yield and efficiency, infrared spectroscopy, ultrastructural aspects (scanning electron microscopy, SEM), thermogravimetric (TG), derivative thermogravimetry (DTG) and differential exploratory calorimetry (DSC) and bioactive properties. Yield and SOEO microencapsulation efficiency (MEE) was of up to 90.19 and 75.75%, respectively. SEM analysis showed SO1, SO2 and SO3 microspheres with irregular shapes. Although improvements in thermal stability of all formulated microspheres were observed, TG and DTG curves indicated slower rates of volatilization and degradation of SOEO in SO1. DSC curves indicated that SO1, SO2 and SO3 microsphere formulations were effective in protecting SOEO, especially in relation to improvements in oxidative stability. Antibacterial and antioxidant properties, as well as total phenolic content of SOEO, were maintained in all formulated microspheres. SOEO microspheres can be prepared using MD and GEL and lyophilization, resulting in high yields, MEE, stability and preservation of antioxidant and antimicrobial properties.

Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault.

Earthquakes are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation rates calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an earthquake. The shear strain rate history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~1020 Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.

Zein films with unoxidized or oxidized tannic acid.

BACKGROUND: Corn zein is a predominatly hydrophobic protein, forming films with relatively good water resistance. Tannic acid, especially in its oxidized form, is supposed to cross-link proteins including zein, which may be explored to further enhance the water resistance of zein films. The effects of different contents (0-8 wt%) of unoxidized and oxidized tannic acid (uTA and oTA, respectively) on the properties of zein films at different pH values (4-9) were studied, according to central composite designs. RESULTS: Increasing tannic acid contents and pH values resulted in decreased water solubility and increased tensile strength and modulus of films. The presence of tannic acid provided the films with a yellowish color and increased opacity. Paired t-tests indicated that oTA films presented higher tensile strength, lower water vapor permeability and lower water solubility than uTA films. CONCLUSION: Higher tannic acid contents and pH values resulted in films with better overall physical properties, which might be ascribed to cross-linking, although the films were still not water resistant. The resulting films have potential to be used for food packaging and coating applications. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.