Predicting aggression in adults with intellectual disability: A pilot study of the predictive efficacy of the Current Risk of Violence and the Short Dynamic Risk Scale.

BACKGROUND: Structured assessments have been shown to assist professionals to evaluate the risk of aggression in secure services for general offender populations and more recently among adults with intellectual disabilities. There is a need to develop intellectual disability sensitive measures for predicting risk of aggression in community samples, especially tools with a focus on dynamic variables. METHODS: The study prospectively followed 28 participants for up to 2 months to test whether the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV) and Short Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS) were able to predict verbal and physical aggression in a community sample of adults with intellectual disability. RESULTS: CuRV and SDRS ratings significantly predicted verbal and physical aggression over a 2-month period. CONCLUSIONS: The current study supports the use of the CuRV with adults with intellectual disability living in community settings. The CuRV and SDRS are worthy of future development and evaluation in independent investigations.

Prospective dynamic assessment of risk of sexual reoffending in individuals with an intellectual disability and a history of sexual offending behaviour.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool. METHOD: A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC-99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability. RESULTS: The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.