Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols.

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

Homogeneous freezing of water droplets for different volumes and cooling rates.

To understand the crystallization of aqueous solutions in the atmosphere, biological specimens, or pharmaceutical formulations, the rate at which ice nucleates from pure liquid water must be quantified. There is still an orders-of-magnitude spread in the homogeneous nucleation rate of water measured using different instruments, with the most important source of uncertainty being that of the measured temperature. Microfluidic platforms can generate hundreds to thousands of monodisperse water-in-oil droplets, unachievable by most other techniques. However, most microfluidic devices previously used to quantify homogeneous ice nucleation rates have reported high temperature uncertainties, between ±0.3 and ±0.7 K. We use the recently developed Microfluidic Ice Nuclei Counter Zurich (MINCZ) to observe the freezing of spherical water droplets with two diameters (75 and 100 µm) at two cooling rates (1 and 0.1 K min-1). By varying both droplet volume and cooling rate, we were able to probe a temperature range of 236.5-239.3 K with an accuracy of ±0.2 K, providing reliable data where previously determined nucleation rates suffered from large uncertainties and inconsistencies, especially at temperatures above 238 K. From these data and from Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the importance of obtaining a sufficiently large dataset so that underlying nucleation rates are not overestimated at higher temperatures. Finally, we obtain new parameters for a previous parameterisation by fitting to our newly measured nucleation rates, enabling its use in applications where ice formation needs to be predicted.

Enhanced Light Absorption and Radiative Forcing by Black Carbon Agglomerates.

The climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change list black carbon (BC) as an important contributor to global warming based on its radiative forcing (RF) impact. Examining closely these models, it becomes apparent that they might underpredict significantly the direct RF for BC, largely due to their assumed spherical BC morphology. Specifically, the light absorption and direct RF of BC agglomerates are enhanced by light scattering between their constituent primary particles as determined by the Rayleigh-Debye-Gans theory interfaced with discrete dipole approximation and recent relations for the refractive index and lensing effect. The light absorption of BC is enhanced by about 20% by the multiple light scattering between BC primary particles regardless of the compactness of their agglomerates. The resulting light absorption agrees very well with the observed absorption aerosol optical depth of BC. ECHAM-HAM simulations accounting for the realistic BC morphology and its coatings reveal high direct RF = 3-5 W/m2 in East, South Asia, sub-Sahara, western Africa, and the Arabian peninsula. These results are in agreement with satellite and AERONET observations of RF and indicate a regional climate warming contribution by 0.75-1.25 °C, solely due to BC emissions.

Reducing the aerosol forcing uncertainty using observational constraints on warm rain processes.

Global climate models (GCMs) disagree with other lines of evidence on the rapid adjustments of cloud cover and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols. Attempts to use observations to constrain the parameterizations of cloud processes in GCMs have failed to reduce the disagreement. We propose using observations sensitive to the relevant cloud processes rather than only to the atmospheric state and focusing on process realism in the absence of aerosol perturbations in addition to the process susceptibility to aerosols. We show that process-sensitive observations of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty on GCM estimates of rapid cloud adjustments to aerosols. The feasibility of an observational constraint depends on understanding the precipitation intensity spectrum in both observations and models and also on improving methods to compare the two.

Aging induced changes in ice nucleation activity of combustion aerosol as determined by near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy.

Fresh soot particles are generally hydrophobic, however, particle hydrophilicity can be increased through atmospheric aging processes. At present little is known on how particle chemical composition and hydrophilicity change upon atmospheric aging and associated uncertainties governing the ice cloud formation potential of soot. Here we sampled two propane flame soots referred to as brown and black soot, characterized as organic carbon rich and poor, respectively. We investigated how the ice nucleation activity of these particles changed through aging in water and aqueous acidic solutions, using a continuous flow diffusion chamber operated at cirrus cloud temperatures (T ≤ 233 K). Single aggregates of both unaged and aged soot were chemically characterized by scanning transmission X-ray microscopy and near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (STXM/NEXAFS) measurements. Particle wettability was determined through water sorption measurements. Unaged black and brown soot particles exhibited significantly different ice nucleation activities. Our experiments revealed significantly enhanced ice nucleation activity of the aged soot particles compared to the fresh samples, lowering the required relative humidities at which ice formation can take place at T = 218 K by up to 15% with respect to water (ΔRHi ≈ 25%). We observed an enhanced water uptake capacity for the aged compared to the unaged samples, which was more pronounced for the black soot. From these measurements we concluded that there is a change in ice nucleation mechanism when aging brown soot. Comparison of the NEXAFS spectra of unaged soot samples revealed a unique spectral feature around 287.5 eV in the case of black soot that was absent for the brown soot, indicative of carbon with hydroxyl functionalities. Comparison of the NEXAFS spectra of unaged and aged soot particles indicates changes in organic functional groups, and the aged spectra were found to be largely similar across soot types, with the exception of the water aged brown soot. Overall, we conclude that atmospheric aging is important to representatively assess the ice cloud formation activity of soot particles.

Unanticipated Side Effects of Stratospheric Albedo Modification Proposals Due to Aerosol Composition and Phase.

The Earth has now warmed ~1.0 °C since the period 1850-1900, due in large part to the anthropogenic addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Most strategies to address this warming have called for a reduction of emissions and, often, accompanying removal of greenhouse gases. Other proposals suggest masking the increased radiative forcing by an increase in particles and/or clouds to increase scattering of incoming solar radiation. Two related recent proposals have suggested addition of calcite particles to the stratosphere, which one model suggests may enhance ozone. Here we show that the interaction of calcite with acidic materials in the stratosphere results in a more complex aerosol than has been previously considered, including aqueous and hydrate phases that can lead to ozone loss. Our study suggests particle addition to the stratosphere could also perturb global radiative balance by affecting high altitude cloud formation and properties. Experimental and modeling results suggest particles will act as the nucleation sites for polar stratospheric cloud ice and, after sedimentation into the troposphere, impact cirrus clouds in the absence of other efficient ice nucleating particles. These results show that an overly simplistic set of assumptions regarding intentional particle emissions to the atmosphere can lead to incorrect estimates of the radiative effect and fail to identify unintended consequences.

Pore condensation and freezing is responsible for ice formation below water saturation for porous particles.

Ice nucleation in the atmosphere influences cloud properties, altering precipitation and the radiative balance, ultimately regulating Earth's climate. An accepted ice nucleation pathway, known as deposition nucleation, assumes a direct transition of water from the vapor to the ice phase, without an intermediate liquid phase. However, studies have shown that nucleation occurs through a liquid phase in porous particles with narrow cracks or surface imperfections where the condensation of liquid below water saturation can occur, questioning the validity of deposition nucleation. We show that deposition nucleation cannot explain the strongly enhanced ice nucleation efficiency of porous compared with nonporous particles at temperatures below -40 °C and the absence of ice nucleation below water saturation at -35 °C. Using classical nucleation theory (CNT) and molecular dynamics simulations (MDS), we show that a network of closely spaced pores is necessary to overcome the barrier for macroscopic ice-crystal growth from narrow cylindrical pores. In the absence of pores, CNT predicts that the nucleation barrier is insurmountable, consistent with the absence of ice formation in MDS. Our results confirm that pore condensation and freezing (PCF), i.e., a mechanism of ice formation that proceeds via liquid water condensation in pores, is a dominant pathway for atmospheric ice nucleation below water saturation. We conclude that the ice nucleation activity of particles in the cirrus regime is determined by the porosity and wettability of pores. PCF represents a mechanism by which porous particles like dust could impact cloud radiative forcing and, thus, the climate via ice cloud formation.

Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation.

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (< 0.1 %) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN0.2) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13% and -22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6 ms-1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (∂N d/∂N a) and to updraft velocity (∂N d/∂w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities ∂N d/∂N a and ∂N d/∂w; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain inter-model biases on the aerosol indirect effect.

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo.

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd ), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the Nd to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the Nd to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol-climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between Nd and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol-cloud interactions in satellite data.

Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability.

A large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing.

Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results.

The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Z α0-6 km, the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0-6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Z α0-6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Z α0-6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Z α0-6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Z α0-6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.

Classical nucleation theory of homogeneous freezing of water: thermodynamic and kinetic parameters.

The probability of homogeneous ice nucleation under a set of ambient conditions can be described by nucleation rates using the theoretical framework of Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT). This framework consists of kinetic and thermodynamic parameters, of which three are not well-defined (namely the interfacial tension between ice and water, the activation energy and the prefactor), so that any CNT-based parameterization of homogeneous ice formation is less well-constrained than desired for modeling applications. Different approaches to estimate the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of CNT are reviewed in this paper and the sensitivity of the calculated nucleation rate to the choice of parameters is investigated. We show that nucleation rates are very sensitive to this choice. The sensitivity is governed by one parameter - the interfacial tension between ice and water, which determines the energetic barrier of the nucleation process. The calculated nucleation rate can differ by more than 25 orders of magnitude depending on the choice of parameterization for this parameter. The second most important parameter is the activation energy of the nucleation process. It can lead to a variation of 16 orders of magnitude. By estimating the nucleation rate from a collection of droplet freezing experiments from the literature, the dependence of these two parameters on temperature is narrowed down. It can be seen that the temperature behavior of these two parameters assumed in the literature does not match with the predicted nucleation rates from the fit in most cases. Moreover a comparison of all possible combinations of theoretical parameterizations of the dominant two free parameters shows that one combination fits the fitted nucleation rates best, which is a description of the interfacial tension coming from a molecular model [Reinhardt and Doye, J. Chem. Phys., 2013, 139, 096102] in combination with the activation energy derived from self-diffusion measurements [Zobrist et al., J. Phys. Chem. C, 2007, 111, 2149]. However, some fundamental understanding of the processes is still missing. Further research in future might help to tackle this problem. The most important questions, which need to be answered to constrain CNT, are raised in this study.

Ice crystal habits from cloud chamber studies obtained by in-line holographic microscopy related to depolarization measurements.

We investigate hydrometeor habits at the AIDA chamber with a newly developed in-line holographic microscope HOLographic Imager for Microscopic Objects (HOLIMO). Sizes and habits of ice crystals and droplets in a mixed-phase cloud experiment are related to relative humidity with respect to ice (RH(ice)), temperature (T), and experiment time. This experiment is initiated with supercooled water drops. As a result, ice crystals within a maximum particle diameter size range of 2 to 118 microm (average size of 19 microm) are detected and 63% of them reveal regular habits. The observed particle habits match those predicted for a given RH(ice) and T. Two different growth modes emerge from this cloud. The first one appears during water injection and reveals mainly optical particle sizes in the range of 5 to 250 microm. The second mode grows to sizes of 5 to 63 microm, just after the particles of the first one fall out. It is found that an increasing aspect ratio chi of maximum length over thickness from 2 to 20 as obtained by HOLIMO corresponds to a decreasing linear depolarization ratio from 0.1 to 0.04, as independently obtained by depolarization measurements.

Water uptake of clay and desert dust aerosol particles at sub- and supersaturated water vapor conditions.

Airborne mineral dust particles serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), thereby influencing the formation and properties of warm clouds. It is therefore of atmospheric interest how dust aerosols with different mineralogy behave when exposed to high relative humidity (RH) or supersaturation (SS) with respect to liquid water. In this study the subsaturated hygroscopic growth and the supersaturated cloud condensation nucleus activity of pure clays and real desert dust aerosols were determined using a hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA) and a cloud condensation nuclei counter (CCNC), respectively. Five different illite, montmorillonite and kaolinite clay samples as well as three desert dust samples (Saharan dust (SD), Chinese dust (CD) and Arizona test dust (ATD)) were investigated. Aerosols were generated both with a wet and a dry disperser. The water uptake was parameterized via the hygroscopicity parameter kappa. The hygroscopicity of dry generated dust aerosols was found to be negligible when compared to processed atmospheric aerosols, with CCNC derived kappa values between 0.00 and 0.02 (the latter corresponds to a particle consisting of 96.7% by volume insoluble material and approximately 3.3% ammonium sulfate). Pure clay aerosols were generally found to be less hygroscopic than natural desert dust particles. The illite and montmorillonite samples had kappa approximately 0.003. The kaolinite samples were less hygroscopic and had kappa=0.001. SD (kappa=0.023) was found to be the most hygroscopic dry-generated desert dust followed by CD (kappa=0.007) and ATD (kappa=0.003). Wet-generated dust showed an increased water uptake when compared to dry-generated samples. This is considered to be an artifact introduced by redistribution of soluble material between the particles. Thus, the generation method is critically important when presenting such data. These results indicate any atmospheric processing of a fresh mineral dust particle which leads to the addition of more than approximately 3% soluble material will significantly enhance its hygroscopicity and CCN activity.

Flood or drought: how do aerosols affect precipitation?

Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a substantial effect on cloud properties and the initiation of precipitation. Large concentrations of human-made aerosols have been reported to both decrease and increase rainfall as a result of their radiative and CCN activities. At one extreme, pristine tropical clouds with low CCN concentrations rain out too quickly to mature into long-lived clouds. On the other hand, heavily polluted clouds evaporate much of their water before precipitation can occur, if they can form at all given the reduced surface heating resulting from the aerosol haze layer. We propose a conceptual model that explains this apparent dichotomy.

Depolarization ratios of single ice particles assuming finite circular cylinders.

Results of the depolarization ratio (delta) of single ice particles in fixed orientations are presented to determine whether discrimination between nonspherical ice crystals (causing depolarization) and spherical water droplets (inducing no depolarization) can be made. A T-matrix method is used to compute delta over a range of particle diameters from 0.13 to 4 microm and aspect ratios chi=d/h (d is the diameter and h the height of the particle) from 0.3 to 3, where ice crystals are assumed to have a circular cylindrical shape. The depolarization ratio is primarily dependent on the orientation of the particle. Some orientations return no depolarization, whereas others generate values reaching almost delta=1. Considering the depolarization averaged over all orientations, a dependence of delta with the particle size is observed where values close to 0.25 are reached. No strong influence of the aspect ratio on the depolarization for a given particle size of 2 mum is evident, as values remain in a range between 0.2 and 0.3.

Stronger constraints on the anthropogenic indirect aerosol effect.

The anthropogenic indirect aerosol effects of modifying cloud albedo and cloud lifetime cannot be deduced from observations alone but require a modeling component. Here we validate a climate model, with and without indirect aerosol effects, by using satellite observations. The model agrees better with observations when both indirect aerosol effects are included. However, the simulated clouds are more susceptible to aerosols than the observed clouds from the POLDER satellite, thus overestimating the indirect aerosol effect. By taking the difference in susceptibilities into account, the global mean total anthropogenic aerosol effect is reduced from -1.4 to -0.85 watts per square meter.