Development and external validation of a predictive multivariable model for last-weeks survival of advanced cancer patients in the palliative home care setting (PACS).

PURPOSE: Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians' ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients, admitted to palliative care (PC) with a survival probably to a few weeks of life, but no optimal score has been identified. The study aims therefore to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting. METHODS: We developed a model to predict short-term overall survival in cancer patients on the basis of clinical factors collected at PC admission. The model was developed on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020, and validated in two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients. RESULTS: Among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient's survival probability at 5, 15, 30 and 45 days was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients. CONCLUSIONS: The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients' survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient's admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate short-term clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

Customised pediatric palliative care: Integrating oncological and palliative care priorities.

AIM: To describe the experience involving the early introduction of palliative care (PC) in oncological patients treated within the paediatric oncology unit of the Istituto Nazionale Tumori of Milan and compare this cohort with a cohort of patients resident in the same area treated before the introduction of early palliative care. METHODS: A virtual team was assembled in 2015. The PC providers operate outside the hospital. Conference calls were scheduled to discuss patients' problems. This sample was compared with the clinical records of patients residing in the same area who died between 2009 and 2014. RESULTS: Between January 2015 and April 2019, 41 patients residing in the Milan area mainly with CNS tumours or sarcomas were referred to the team. Comparing the results with the previous cohort, there was a rise in the number of patients dying at home or in a hospice and the duration of PC increased over time. From 2015, none of the patients died in an intensive care unit. CONCLUSION: Patients managed by the virtual team were able to continue their cancer treatments, take part in Phase I trials and receive PC. All patients with a poor prognosis should have PC at an early stage.