World population perspectives 1985.

PIP: Some progress has been made in curbing global population growth, yet much remains to be done, particularly in 3rd world countries. Population growth reached its zenith between 1950-70. The growth rate then remained at 2% per annum. By the early 1970s, the pace began to slow, and by 1985 it was down to 1.7%. UN sources anticipate a further drop to 1.5% by 2000. The decline has been due primarily to falling birthrates in some developing nations. China with its 1-child policy has been responsible for a major effect, but also there have been notable declines in other Asian and in Latin American countries. One important factor is the inherent dynamic of the population process. The momentum of population growth is remarkable; world numbers are destined to increase for decade upon decade. Fertility levels and overall rates of population growth will determine when different regions of the world are likely to realize stability . Regarding the level at which the world population will stabilize eventually, the figures most commonly quoted by international agencies range from 8000-10,000 million. This total would strain the earth's carrying capacity to an unacceptable degree and produce ecological malpraxis. In 1985 the developed nations accounted for about 1/4 of the world's population. The rate of growth had been slow for over 20 years and currently is 0.6% per annum. The 2 major demographic changes in the area are continuing low birthrates and a marked rise in the relative and absolute numbers of elderly people. In 1985 the less developed world of Africa, Asia, and Latin America housed 3700 million people, about 3/4 of the world's total. During the next 15 years, 85% of the births are expected to occur in the less developed world. Developing countries show great variations with respect to such demographic indices as birthrates, death rates, and infant mortality rates, but they share with developed nations the marked increase in their numbers of old people. This trend is becoming particularly evident in Latin America. Asia, with numbers approaching 3000 million in 1985, is the most populous continent of the developing world and illustrates the variability in reproductive activity characteristic of the 3rd world. In 1985 the population of South America reached just over 400 million with a rate of growth of 2.3% per annum. As in Asia population patterns vary with the common tendency for births to fall. As of 1985 the population situation in Africa continues to be very serious. Little change has taken placed in the crude birthrate over the 1950-85 period. The average life expectancy at birth is only 50 years, and the percentage of the population under age 15 is 45%. As the 21st century nears, the salience of the world's population problem must be increasingly appreciated by national governments and by international development agencies.^ieng

Family planning: the global challenge.

PIP: There has been huge growth in the world population during the 20th century, and a factor which must never be forgotten in relation to global population is its inherent dynamic. The momentum of population growth is remarkable and dictates that world numbers are destined to continue growing for decades to come. Stabilization of population at 2 children per family remains a distant goal and depends on fertility on fertility levels and rates of population growth in different parts of the world. Many authorities maintain that family planning will remedy the population explosion. Family planning, most likely, does work, yet its overall success has been modest. Part of the decline in birthrates recorded in some developing countries in Asia and Latin America can be ascribed to spreading birth control practices. Yet, by far the greatest contribution to the overall decline in global population growth has been made through the draconian measures introduced in China. In spite of family planning programs which have been operational for relatively long periods of time, population growth rates in many other developing countries have changed little over the past 2 decades. The limitations of an approach based totally on family planning should be borne constantly in mind, especially in the 3rd world. The main fallacy operating, and many authorities still hold to it, is to equate family planning with a population policy. In 1967, Kingsley Davis, an American demographer, noted the flaw in this argument. He pointed out that the desired family size was often in excess of the 2 children which would be needed to produce eventual stabilization of the population. The litany of family planning assumes that the aggregate of decisions of countless couples on family building will precisely coincide with the needs of the state in terms of population. If this were the case, it would be a coincidence of monumental proportions. Yet, family planning should not be denigrated. It is an integral and essential part of any population policy. To be successful a population policy must be broad in scope and multifactorial in approach. Population education from as early an age as possible is essential as is a commitment to women's rights and female emancipation and a massive program of socioeconomic development together with better health, nutrition, and sanitation. Family planning as an important element of any program designed to curb population growth merits full support.^ieng

Population, environment, medicine and global sustainability.

The final two decades of this century see our planet in a highly perilous condition. This paper, after touching on the problem of nuclear proliferation, goes on to consider three other issues overpopulation, environmental depredation and the future of medical practice all of which are of high salience. The section on population concentrates on the time required for numbers to stabilize at two children per family. Europe is likely to attain stabilization before 2050, North America and the USSR by 2100. In the developing world South and East Asia could also be in balance by the beginning of the twenty-second century; but the situation in Africa vis-à-vis population growth is much more serious and stabilization cannot be anticipated until about 2150. Destruction of life support systems on a massive scale continues, particularly in developing countries. Much of Asia, Africa and Latin America is riddled with soil erosion; expanding populations of humans and livestock are proving a notable catalyst to desertification; the 'firewood crisis' is deepening as slowly but surely the earth is being deforested. There is little convincing evidence that the major aims of the World Conservation Strategy maintenance and responsible utilization of essential ecological systems, preservation of genetic diversity are being obeyed anywhere in the world. In the more sustainable society of the future engineering medicine with its proclivity for resource depletion will be less attractive. Rather will the emphasis be on prevention and on attempting to delineate the environmental factors known to be responsible for an increasing number of diseases. The likely pattern of morbidity and mortality in the twenty-first century is discussed. Geriatric medicine will hold pride of place; the incidence of cancer will rise markedly, and as an increasing number of Third World nations undergo the process of development diseases, which up till now have mainly affected affluent technological societies, it will spread throughout the planet.

The economics of fertility.

PIP: The statement that economics and fertility are closely interrelated is a truism. The classical economists--Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Karl Marx, John Stuart Mill and John Maynard Keynes appreciated this fact, and their reviews are recounted and their prescience is assessed. Adam Smith (1723-1790) was primarily concerned with the desire of humankind to better his/her material conditions. Although he did not put forward a specific population policy, the tenet of his writing is pronatalist. Economic advantages would accrue to parents by the production of many children. Yet, underneath Smith's optimism, there was an apocalyptic vision of the distant future, i.e., the "steady state" when resources would be depleted or near exhaustion, when capital accumulation would have ceased, and living standards would be dropping vertiginously. In his 1st "Essay on Population" Malthus maintained that "the power of population is infinitely greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence of men." Malthus can be complimented on his prescience. There is little question that the planet of today is grossly overpopulated and that a great gulf exists between numbers of people and their aspirations and the resources which the earth can provide for them. Malthus was particularly concerned about the population food dilemma, and that is still much in evidence in 1982. 2 concomitants of overpopulation--excessive urbanization and joblessness--could not be foreseen by Malthus. Marx did not deny the basic tenet promulgated by Malthus but to him this was simply an artifact of capitalist society which required "enormous reserves of proletarians" in order to maintain its odius system. Officially Communist governments remain in a Marxist straitjacket regarding the population issue. Mills approach was strongly antinatalist; he saw little need for an increase in human numbers. Mills was concerned that because of unlimited population growth and wealth the earth would lose much of its pleasantness. Keynes believed and stated in 1922 that the state should control the size of the population just as it did the size of the army and of the budget. His views were heretical then and continue so now for Britain still has no explicit population policy. In the 1930's Keynes wrote that the only way to alter opinion was to set in motion new forces of instruction and imagination, but nowhere in 1982 is there any evidence that such forces exist.^ieng

The politics of fertility.

PIP: Because of the fertility decline in Western Europe during the 1960s and 1970s population forecasters lowered their projections. In Great Britain reacting to pressure from various organizations, a Minister of Population Affairs was appointed in 1974. The most volatile issue in the UK is its ethnic minorities which are expected to continue to grow during the next 20 years. In Luxembourg and the Federal Republic of Germany there are already negative population growth rates and Belgium, Denmark, Norway, or Sweden could reach zero or negative population growth during the early 1980s. France, on the other hand, has a pronatalist policy with the government subsidizing families with children and cash rewards on the birth of the 3rd child. The USSR is the most heavily populated of the Eastern bloc countries with over 70% of the total of 400 million. 2 trends have caused this: decline in national fertility and regional variations in fertility. For example the projected birthrate for the Baltic states for the year 2000 is 13.5/1000, for the Transcaucasian Republics it is 21.1/1000 and for the Central Asian Republic it is 34/1000. In India the 1980 birthrate was still high at 34/1000. Various government programs aimed at lowering the population growth rate and at the negative image given to family planning programs after Indira Gandhi's forced sterilization campaigns in 1977 lasted for several years. China, the world's most populous country, had official policies of advocacy of late marriage, and a 2-child norm. At present IUDs and male and female sterilization account for about 80% of contraceptive usage and oral contraceptives are also popular; abortion rate is estimated to be 1.5 million/year. In 1979 a series of measures aiming at making births late, spaced, and few with an ideal family size of 1 child were introduced. The government is aiming for a 1% growth rate by 1985.^ieng