Using phenotypic distribution models to predict livestock performance.

Livestock production systems of the developing world use indigenous breeds that locally adapted to specific agro-ecologies. Introducing commercial breeds usually results in lower productivity than expected, as a result of unfavourable genotype by environment interaction. It is difficult to predict of how these commercial breeds will perform in different conditions encountered in e.g. sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we present a novel methodology to model performance, by using growth data from different chicken breeds that were tested in Ethiopia. The suitability of these commercial breeds was tested by predicting the response of body weight as a function of the environment across Ethiopia. Phenotype distribution models were built using machine learning algorithms to make predictions of weight in the local environmental conditions based on the productivity for the breed. Based on the predicted body weight, breeds were assigned as being most suitable in a given agro-ecology or region. We identified the most important environmental variables that explained the variation in body weight across agro-ecologies for each of the breeds. Our results highlight the importance of acknowledging the role of environment in predicting productivity in scavenging chicken production systems. The use of phenotype distribution models in livestock breeding is recommended to develop breeds that will better fit in their intended production environment.

Use of geographic information system tools to predict animal breed suitability for different agro-ecological zones.

Predicting breed-specific environmental suitability has been problematic in livestock production. Native breeds have low productivity but are thought to be more robust to perform under local conditions than exotic breeds. Attempts to introduce genetically improved exotic breeds are generally unsuccessful, mainly due to the antagonistic environmental conditions. Knowledge of the environmental conditions that are shaping the breed would be needed to determine its suitability to different locations. Here, we present a methodology to predict the suitability of breeds for different agro-ecological zones using Geographic Information Systems tools and predictive habitat distribution models. This methodology was tested on the current distribution of two introduced chicken breeds in Ethiopia: the Koekoek, originally from South Africa, and the Fayoumi, originally from Egypt. Cross-validation results show this methodology to be effective in predicting breed suitability for specific environmental conditions. Furthermore, the model predicts suitable areas of the country where the breeds could be introduced. The specific climatic parameters that explained the potential distribution of each of the breeds were similar to the environment from which the breeds originated. This novel methodology finds application in livestock programs, allowing for a more informed decision when designing breeding programs and introduction programs, and increases our understanding of the role of the environment in livestock productivity.

Stepwise colonization of the Andes by ruddy ducks and the evolution of novel ß-globin variants.

Andean uplift played a key role in Neotropical bird diversification, yet past dispersal and genetic adaptation to high-altitude environments remain little understood. Here we use multilocus population genetics to study population history and historical demographic processes in the ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis), a stiff-tailed diving duck comprising three subspecies distributed from Canada to Tierra del Fuego and inhabiting wetlands from sea level to 4500 m in the Andes. We sequenced the mitochondrial DNA, four autosomal introns and three haemoglobin genes (α(A), α(D), ß(A)) and used isolation-with-migration (IM) models to study gene flow between North America and South America, and between the tropical and southern Andes. Our analyses indicated that ruddy ducks dispersed first from North America to the tropical Andes, then from the tropical Andes to the southern Andes. While no nonsynonymous substitutions were found in either α globin gene, three amino acid substitutions were observed in the ß(A) globin. Based on phylogenetic reconstruction and power analysis, the first ß(A) substitution, found in all Andean individuals, was acquired when ruddy ducks dispersed from low altitude in North America to high altitude in the tropical Andes, whereas the two additional substitutions occurred more recently, when ruddy ducks dispersed from high altitude in the tropical Andes to low altitude in the southern Andes. This stepwise colonization pattern accompanied by polarized ß(A) globin amino acid replacements suggest that ruddy ducks first acclimatized or adapted to the Andean highlands and then again to the lowlands. In addition, ruddy ducks colonized the Andean highlands via a less common route as compared to other waterbird species that colonized the Andes northwards from the southern cone of South America.