Evaluating sources of bias in pedigree-based estimates of breeding population size.

Applications of genetic-based estimates of population size are expanding, especially for species for which traditional demographic estimation methods are intractable due to the rarity of adult encounters. Estimates of breeding population size (NS ) are particularly amenable to genetic-based approaches as the parameter can be estimated using pedigrees reconstructed from genetic data gathered from discrete juvenile cohorts, therefore eliminating the need to sample adults in the population. However, a critical evaluation of how genotyping and sampling effort influence bias in pedigree reconstruction, and how these biases subsequently influence estimates of NS , is needed to evaluate the efficacy of the approach under a range of scenarios. We simulated a model system to understand the interactive effects of genotyping and sampling effort on error in genetic pedigrees reconstructed from the program COLONY. We then evaluated how errors in pedigree reconstruction influenced bias and precision in estimates of NS using three different rarefaction estimators. Results indicated that pedigree error can be minimal when adequate genetic data are available, such as when juvenile sample sizes are large and/or individuals are genotyped at many informative loci. However, even in cases for which data are limited, using results of the simulation analysis to understand the magnitude and sources of bias in reconstructed pedigrees can still be informative when estimating NS . We applied results of the simulation analysis to evaluate N ̂ $$ \hat{N} $$ S for a population of federally endangered Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) in the Delaware River, USA. Our results indicated that NS is likely to be three orders of magnitude lower compared with historic breeding population sizes, which is a considerable advancement in our understanding of the population status of Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. Our analyses are broadly applicable in the design and interpretation of studies seeking to estimate NS and can help to guide conservation decisions when ecological uncertainty is high. The utility of these results is expected to grow as rapid advances in genetic technologies increase the popularity of genetic population monitoring and estimation.

Demographic and genetic description of Greenland's only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population.

A survey of the Kapisillit River system was conducted in 2005 and 2012 to study the only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population in Greenland. Little is known about its characteristics or its relationship with other S. salar populations across the species range. Juvenile S. salar were captured in all stations surveyed within the lower river with the highest densities lower in the river and decreasing densities with increasing distance from the river mouth. Captured juveniles ranged from 0+ to 7+ years old and the predominant smolt age was between 4 and 6 years. Median length of 0+ and 1+ juveniles in August-September was 38.8 and 70.4 mm, respectively. The proportion of mature male parr increased from 4% for 1+ year old fish to 95% for fish greater than 2 years old. Genetic analysis using 96 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) revealed a high degree of genetic similarity between collections, extremely low genetic diversity and low estimates of effective population size (Ne = 28.7; 95% CI = 19.7-42.4). Genetic comparison to range-wide S. salar populations demonstrated that the Kapisillit River S. salar is an outgroup of the eastern Atlantic stock complex, which is consistent with the hypothesised colonisation from the east. River morphology and the absence of glacier runoff are hypothesised to be the main reasons for the relatively high river temperatures supporting this self-sustaining population of S. salar. Given its uniqueness and persistence, this population represents an important part of range-wide biodiversity of S. salar.

Comprehensive genetic analyses reveal evolutionary distinction of a mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei) proposed for delisting from the US Endangered Species Act.

Zapus hudsonius preblei, listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), is one of 12 recognized subspecies of meadow jumping mice found in North America. Recent morphometric and phylogenetic comparisons among Z. h. preblei and neighbouring conspecifics questioned the taxonomic status of selected subspecies, resulting in a proposal to delist the Z. h. preblei from the ESA. We present additional analyses of the phylogeographic structure within Z. hudsonius that calls into question previously published data (and conclusions) and confirms the original taxonomic designations. A survey of 21 microsatellite DNA loci and 1380 base pairs from two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) regions (control region and cytochrome b) revealed that each Z. hudsonius subspecies is genetically distinct. These data do not support the null hypothesis of a homogeneous gene pool among the five subspecies found within the southwestern portion of the species' range. The magnitude of the observed differentiation was considerable and supported by significant findings for nearly every statistical comparison made, regardless of the genome or the taxa under consideration. Structuring of nuclear multilocus genotypes and subspecies-specific mtDNA haplotypes corresponded directly with the disjunct distributions of the subspecies investigated. Given the level of correspondence between the observed genetic population structure and previously proposed taxonomic classification of subspecies (based on the geographic separation and surveys of morphological variation), we conclude that the nominal subspecies surveyed in this study do not warrant synonymy, as has been proposed for Z. h. preblei, Z. h. campestris, and Z. h. intermedius.