A multi-criteria framework for disease surveillance site selection: case study for Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Indonesia.

Disease surveillance aims to collect data at different times or locations, to assist public health authorities to respond appropriately. Surveillance of the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, is sparse in some endemic areas and the spatial extent of transmission is uncertain. Zoonotic transmission of Plasmodium knowlesi has been demonstrated throughout Southeast Asia and represents a major hurdle to regional malaria elimination efforts. Given an arbitrary spatial prediction of relative disease risk, we develop a flexible framework for surveillance site selection, drawing on principles from multi-criteria decision-making. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we apply it to the case study of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria surveillance site selection in western Indonesia. We demonstrate how statistical predictions of relative disease risk can be quantitatively incorporated into public health decision-making, with specific application to active human surveillance of zoonotic malaria. This approach can be used in other contexts to extend the utility of modelling outputs.

Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite that causes malaria in humans. The pathogen has a natural host reservoir in certain macaque species and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes of the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group. The risk of human P. knowlesi infection varies across Southeast Asia and is dependent upon environmental factors. Understanding this geographic variation in risk is important both for enabling appropriate diagnosis and treatment of the disease and for improving the planning and evaluation of malaria elimination. However, the data available on P. knowlesi occurrence are biased towards regions with greater surveillance and sampling effort. Predicting the spatial variation in risk of P. knowlesi malaria requires methods that can both incorporate environmental risk factors and account for spatial bias in detection. METHODS & RESULTS: We extend and apply an environmental niche modelling framework as implemented by a previous mapping study of P. knowlesi transmission risk which included data up to 2015. We reviewed the literature from October 2015 through to March 2020 and identified 264 new records of P. knowlesi, with a total of 524 occurrences included in the current study following consolidation with the 2015 study. The modelling framework used in the 2015 study was extended, with changes including the addition of new covariates to capture the effect of deforestation and urbanisation on P. knowlesi transmission. DISCUSSION: Our map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability estimates that the risk posed by the pathogen is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localised areas of high risk also predicted in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines and Northeast India. These results highlight areas of priority for P. knowlesi surveillance and prospective sampling to address the challenge the disease poses to malaria elimination planning.

Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia.

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite that causes malaria in humans. The pathogen has a natural host reservoir in certain macaque species and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes of the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group. The risk of human P. knowlesi infection varies across Southeast Asia and is dependent upon environmental factors. Understanding this geographic variation in risk is important both for enabling appropriate diagnosis and treatment of the disease and for improving the planning and evaluation of malaria elimination. However, the data available on P. knowlesi occurrence are biased towards regions with greater surveillance and sampling effort. Predicting the spatial variation in risk of P. knowlesi malaria requires methods that can both incorporate environmental risk factors and account for spatial bias in detection. Methods & Results: We extend and apply an environmental niche modelling framework as implemented by a previous mapping study of P. knowlesi transmission risk which included data up to 2015. We reviewed the literature from October 2015 through to March 2020 and identified 264 new records of P. knowlesi, with a total of 524 occurrences included in the current study following consolidation with the 2015 study. The modelling framework used in the 2015 study was extended, with changes including the addition of new covariates to capture the effect of deforestation and urbanisation on P. knowlesi transmission. Discussion: Our map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability estimates that the risk posed by the pathogen is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localised areas of high risk also predicted in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines and Northeast India. These results highlight areas of priority for P. knowlesi surveillance and prospective sampling to address the challenge the disease poses to malaria elimination planning.

Plasmodium falciparum Isolates Carrying pfk13 Polymorphisms Harbor the SVMNT Allele of pfcrt in Northwestern Indonesia.

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is the first-line antimalarial regimen in Indonesia. Susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinin is falling in the Greater Mekong subregion, but it is not known whether the efficacy of current combinations is also threatened in nearby Sumatera. We evaluated the genetic loci pfcrt, pfmdr1, and pfk13, considered to be under selection by artemisinin combination therapy, among 404 P. falciparum infections identified by PCR detection in a cross-sectional survey of 3,731 residents of three regencies. The pfcrt haplotype SVMNT (codons 72 to 76) was the most prevalent and displayed significant linkage disequilibrium with the pfmdr1 haplotype YY (codons 86 and 184) (odds ratio [OR] 26.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.96 to 239.4; P < 0.001). This contrasts with Mekong countries, where the CVIET haplotype of pfcrt predominates. Among 231 evaluable isolates, only 9 (3.9%) showed any evidence of nonsynonymous gene variants in the propeller domain of pfk13 The Thr474Ala variant was seen in six individuals, and Cys580Tyr was identified with low confidence in only a single isolate from an asymptomatic individual. Among a subset of 117 symptomatic P. falciparum-infected individuals randomized to receive either dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine or artemether-lumefantrine, the treatment outcome was not associated with pretreatment genotype. However, submicroscopic persistent parasites at day 28 or day 42 of follow-up were significantly more likely to harbor the pfmdr1 haplotype NF (codons 86 and 184) than were pretreatment isolates (P < 0.001 for both treatment groups). Current ACT regimens appear to be effective in Sumatera, but evidence of persistent submicroscopic infection in some patients suggests further detailed studies of drug susceptibility should be undertaken.

Contribution of Plasmodium knowlesi to Multispecies Human Malaria Infections in North Sumatera, Indonesia.

Background: As Indonesia works toward the goal of malaria elimination, information is lacking on malaria epidemiology from some western provinces. As a basis for studies of antimalarial efficacy, we set out to survey parasite carriage in 3 communities in North Sumatera Province. Methods: A combination of active and passive detection of infection was carried out among communities in Batubara, Langkat, and South Nias regencies. Finger-prick blood samples from consenting individuals of all ages provided blood films for microscopic examination and blood spots on filter paper. Plasmodium species were identified using nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of ribosomal RNA genes and a novel assay that amplifies a conserved sequence specific for the sicavar gene family of Plasmodium knowlesi. Results: Of 3731 participants, 614 (16.5%) were positive for malaria parasites by microscopy. PCR detected parasite DNA in samples from 1169 individuals (31.3%). In total, 377 participants (11.8%) harbored P. knowlesi. Also present were Plasmodium vivax (14.3%), Plasmodium falciparum (10.5%) and Plasmodium malariae (3.4%). Conclusions: Amplification of sicavar is a specific and sensitive test for the presence of P. knowlesi DNA in humans. Subpatent and asymptomatic multispecies parasitemia is relatively common in North Sumatera, so PCR-based surveillance is required to support control and elimination activities.