Evaluating teen options for preventing pregnancy: Impacts and mechanisms.

This paper presents findings from an experimental evaluation of the Teen Options to Prevent Pregnancy (TOPP) program, an 18-month intervention that consists of a unique combination of personalized contraceptive counseling, facilitated access to contraceptive services, and referrals to social services. We find that TOPP led to large and statistically significant increases in the use of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs), accompanied by substantial reductions in repeat and unintended pregnancy among adolescent mothers. We provide an exploratory analysis of the channels through which TOPP achieved its impacts on contraceptive behavior and pregnancy outcomes. A back-of-the-envelope decomposition implies that the increase in LARC use can explain at most one-third of the reduction in repeat pregnancy. We provide suggestive evidence that direct access to contraceptive services was important for increasing LARC use and reducing repeat pregnancy. We did not find any spillover effects on non-targeted outcomes, such as educational attainment and benefit receipt.

Cost-Effectiveness of HRSA's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program?

BACKGROUND: With an annual budget of more than $2 billion, the Health Resources and Services Administration's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) is the third largest source of public funding for HIV care and treatment in the United States, yet little analysis has been done to quantify the long-term public health and economic impacts of the federal program. METHODS: Using an agent-based, stochastic model, we estimated health care costs and outcomes over a 50-year period in the presence of the RWHAP relative to those expected to prevail if the comprehensive and integrated system of medical and support services funded by the RWHAP were not available. We made a conservative assumption that, in the absence of the RWHAP, only uninsured clients would lose access to these medical and support services. RESULTS: The model predicts that the proportion of people with HIV who are virally suppressed would be 25.2 percentage points higher in the presence of the RWHAP (82.6 percent versus 57.4 percent without the RWHAP). The number of new HIV infections would be 18 percent (190,197) lower, the number of deaths among people with HIV would be 31 percent (267,886) lower, the number of quality-adjusted life years would be 2.7 percent (5.6 million) higher, and the cumulative health care costs would be 25 percent ($165 billion) higher in the presence of the RWHAP relative to the counterfactual. Based on these results, the RWHAP has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $29,573 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with the non-RWHAP scenario. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the probability of transmitting HIV via male-to-male sexual contact and the cost of antiretroviral medications have the largest effect on the cost-effectiveness of the program. CONCLUSIONS: The RWHAP would be considered very cost-effective when using standard guidelines of less than the per capita gross domestic product of the United States. The results suggest that the RWHAP plays a critical and cost-effective role in the United States' public health response to the HIV epidemic.

Development of a Mathematical Model to Estimate the Cost-Effectiveness of HRSA's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

BACKGROUND: The Health Resources and Services Administration's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program provides services to more than half of all people diagnosed with HIV in the United States. We present and validate a mathematical model that can be used to estimate the long-term public health and cost impact of the federal program. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based model that reflects the current HIV epidemic in the United States. The model simulates everyone's progression along the HIV care continuum, using 2 network-based mechanisms for HIV transmission: injection drug use and sexual contact. To test the validity of the model, we calculated HIV incidence, mortality, life expectancy, and lifetime care costs and compared the results with external benchmarks. RESULTS: The estimated HIV incidence rate for men who have sex with men (502 per 100,000 person years), mortality rate of all people diagnosed with HIV (1663 per 100,000 person years), average life expectancy for individuals with low CD4 counts not on antiretroviral therapy (1.52-3.78 years), and lifetime costs ($362,385) all met our validity criterion of within 15% of external benchmarks. CONCLUSIONS: The model represents a complex HIV care delivery system rather than a single intervention, which required developing solutions to several challenges, such as calculating need for and receipt of multiple services and estimating their impact on care retention and viral suppression. Our strategies to address these methodological challenges produced a valid model for assessing the cost-effectiveness of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

Estimating the incidence of unintended births and pregnancies at the sub-state level to inform program design.

OBJECTIVES: Unintended (mistimed or unwanted) pregnancies occur frequently in the United States and have negative effects. When designing prevention programs and intervention strategies for the provision of comprehensive birth control methods, it is necessary to identify (1) populations at high risk of unintended pregnancy, and (2) geographic areas with a concentration of need. METHODS: To estimate the proportion and incidence of unintended births and pregnancies for regions in Missouri, two machine-learning prediction models were developed using data from the National Survey of Family Growth and the Missouri Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. Each model was applied to Missouri birth certificate data from 2014 to 2016 to estimate the number of unintended births and pregnancies across regions in Missouri. Population sizes from the American Community Survey were incorporated to estimate the incidence of unintended births and pregnancies. RESULTS: About 24,500 (34.0%) of the live births in Missouri each year were estimated to have resulted from unintended pregnancies: about 25 per 1,000 women (ages 15 to 45) annually. Further, 40,000 pregnancies (39.7%) were unintended each year: about 41 per 1,000 women annually. Unintended pregnancy was concentrated in Missouri's largest urban areas, and annual incidence varied substantially across regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed methodology was feasible to implement. Random forest modeling identified factors in the data that best predicted unintended birth and pregnancy and outperformed other approaches. Maternal age, marital status, health insurance status, parity, and month that prenatal care began predict unintended pregnancy among women with a recent live birth. Using this approach to estimate the rates of unintended births and pregnancies across regions within Missouri revealed substantial within-state variation in the proportion and incidence of unintended pregnancy. States and other agencies could use this study's results or methods to better target interventions to reduce unintended pregnancy or address other public health needs.

Financial Toll of Untreated Perinatal Mood and Anxiety Disorders Among 2017 Births in the United States.

Objectives. To estimate the economic burden of untreated perinatal mood and anxiety disorders (PMADs) among 2017 births in the United States.Methods. We developed a mathematical model based on a cost-of-illness approach to estimate the impacts of exposure to untreated PMADs on mothers and children. Our model estimated the costs incurred by mothers and their babies born in 2017, projected from conception through the first 5 years of the birth cohort's lives. We determined model inputs from secondary data sources and a literature review.Results. We estimated PMADs to cost $14 billion for the 2017 birth cohort from conception to 5 years postpartum. The average cost per affected mother-child dyad was about $31 800. Mothers incurred 65% of the costs; children incurred 35%. The largest costs were attributable to reduced economic productivity among affected mothers, more preterm births, and increases in other maternal health expenditures.Conclusions. The US economic burden of PMADs is high. Efforts to lower the prevalence of untreated PMADs could lead to substantial economic savings for employers, insurers, the government, and society.

Impact of Pneumococcal Vaccination on Pneumonia Hospitalizations and Related Costs in Ontario: A Population-Based Ecological Study.

Background: In Ontario, Canada, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) was approved for infants in 2001 and became part of the publicly funded routine immunization schedule in 2005. We assessed the population-level impact of PCV on pneumonia hospitalizations and related costs. Methods: We used the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impact of pneumococcal vaccination on pneumonia hospitalizations and related costs, using nonpneumonia hospitalization as the control condition. We extracted monthly hospitalization costs, stratified by age group, from population-based health administrative data between April 1992 and March 2014. The study period was divided into 5 intervals: prevaccine period, availability of 7-valent PCV (PCV7) for private purchase, public funding for PCV7, replacement of PCV7 with 10-valent PCV (PCV10), and replacement of PCV10 with 13-valent PCV (PCV13). Results: A total of 1063700 pneumonia hospitalizations were recorded during the study period. In the vaccine-eligible age group, pneumonia hospitalizations declined by 34% (95% confidence interval, 32%-37%), 38% (32%-43%), and 45% (40%-51%) and hospitalization-related costs declined by 38% (25%-51%), 39% (33%-45%), and 46% (41%-52%) after public funding for PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13, respectively. Pneumonia hospitalizations and related costs also declined substantially for PCV-ineligible older children and elderly persons (aged >65 years). Conclusions: Our results suggest that the publicly funded PCV immunization program is responsible for substantial reductions in pneumonia hospitalizations and related healthcare costs, among both young children eligible for publicly funded vaccination and other age groups not included in the publicly funded program.