Prevalence and correlates of purchasing contraband cigarettes on First Nations reserves in Ontario, Canada.

AIMS: Non-First Nations people purchasing cigarettes on First Nations reserves do not pay applicable taxes. We estimated prevalence and identified correlates of purchasing contraband cigarettes on reserves; we also quantified the share of contraband purchased on reserves relative to reported total cigarette consumption and the associated financial impact on taxation revenue. DESIGN: Data from the Ontario Tobacco Survey, a regionally stratified representative population telephone survey that over-samples smokers. SETTING: Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1382 adult current smokers. MEASUREMENTS: Reported status of purchasing cigarettes on reserves and the quantity of cigarettes bought on reserves. The prevalence of purchasing cigarettes on reserves was assessed with descriptive statistics. A two-part model was used to analyse correlates of having recently purchased contraband. FINDINGS: A total of 25.8% reported recent purchasing and 11.5% reported usual purchasing. Heavy smoking, having no plans to quit and lower education were correlated with recent purchasing. Heavy smoking and not having plans to quit were also correlated with buying more packs of cigarettes on reserves. Contraband purchases on reserves accounted for 14.0% of the reported total cigarette consumption and resulted in an estimated tax loss of $122.2 million. CONCLUSIONS: There was substantial purchasing of contraband cigarettes on reserves in Ontario, resulting in significant losses in tax revenues. The availability of these cheap cigarettes undermines the effectiveness of tobacco taxation to reduce smoking. Wherever indicated, governments should strengthen their contraband prevention and control measures, as recommended by the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, to ensure that tobacco taxation achieves its intended health benefits and that tax revenues are protected.

The economic impact of a smoke-free bylaw on restaurant and bar sales in Ottawa, Canada.

AIMS: On 1 August 2001, the City of Ottawa (Canada's Capital) implemented a smoke-free bylaw that completely prohibited smoking in work-places and public places, including restaurants and bars, with no exemption for separately ventilated smoking rooms. This paper evaluates the effects of this bylaw on restaurant and bar sales. DATA AND MEASURES: We used retail sales tax data from March 1998 to June 2002 to construct two outcome measures: the ratio of licensed restaurant and bar sales to total retail sales and the ratio of unlicensed restaurant sales to total retail sales. Restaurant and bar sales were subtracted from total retail sales in the denominator of these measures. DESIGN AND ANALYSIS: We employed an interrupted time-series design. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention analysis was used to test for three possible impacts that the bylaw might have on the sales of restaurants and bars. We repeated the analysis using regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors method to triangulate our results. FINDINGS: Outcome measures showed declining trends at baseline before the bylaw went into effect. Results from ARIMA intervention and regression analyses did not support the hypotheses that the smoke-free bylaw had an impact that resulted in (1) abrupt permanent, (2) gradual permanent or (3) abrupt temporary changes in restaurant and bar sales. CONCLUSIONS: While a large body of research has found no significant adverse impact of smoke-free legislation on restaurant and bar sales in the United States, Australia and elsewhere, our study confirms these results in a northern region with a bilingual population, which has important implications for impending policy in Europe and other areas.