[Comparative estimation of currently available approaches to early identification of severe acute pancreatitis].

It is difficult to precisely predict the severity of each specific patient with acute pancreatitis (AP), by using conventional statistical methods or single clinical and laboratory criteria. By using the patient database, the authors developed an artificial neuronal network (ANN) to predict the severity of AP and compared it with the Ranson, Imrie/Glasgow, APACHE II, and Physiological Condition Severity scoring systems, ultrasound/radiological criteria, and linear regression analysis. ANN was found to be significantly better than all the scoring systems, but not better than a linear regression model (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were equal to 0.83). With 81% sensitivity, ANN showed a 70% specificity, and positive/negative predictive values of 73 and 79%, respectively. ANN is an effective tool in developing prediction models for poor outcomes in patients with AP that is precisely similar with linear regression models.

[Prognostic value of the pattern of multiple organ dysfunctions in severe acute pancreatitis].

A relationship was studied between the outcomes of severe acute pancreatitis and the pattern and multiple organ dysfunctions in 72 patients. Organ dysfunction was observed in 39 (54.2%) patients: multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in 20 (27.8%) patients and dysfunction of an organ or a system in 19 (26.4%). The deceased patients had a statistically significantly higher incidence of MOS than the survivors (88.2% versus 9.1%; p < 0.01). Logistic regression showed that only respiratory and neurological dysfunctions were the factors that predispose to death.

[The effect of organ dysfunction on the outcomes of acute destructive pancreatitis].

The relationships between outcomes of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and organ dysfunction in 72 patients were studied. A total of 39 (54.2%) patients had organ dysfunction, 20 (27.8%) patients -- multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), 19 (26.4%) patients -- dysfunction of single organ or system. Died patients had higher incidence of MOD compared with those who alive (88.2 vs 9.1%, p<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis the main predicting factors of death were pulmonary failure and neurological dysfunction. Pulmonary failure was the most common organ dysfunction among both single organ dysfunction (57.9%) and MOD (95.0%), with a total morbidity of 41.7%. Mortality rate was lower at isolated pulmonary dysfunction, and was higher at MOD (18.2 vs 78.9%, p<0,01). Irregular specialized intensive treatment protocol led to groundless surgical interventions at 10 from 46 patients with sterile pancreonecrosis. Organ dysfunction makes worse the prognosis in patients with SAP. Choice of the optimal treatment strategy at SAP with MOD is determinative.