Differential Misclassification of Disease under Partial-Mouth Sampling.

AIM:: The effect of misclassification of a cluster-level dichotomous outcome (disease) due to partial-cluster sampling on its association with a dichotomous exposure is investigated. METHODS:: Disease (e.g., chronic periodontitis) is deemed to exist in a cluster (e.g., full mouth) when a condition of interest (e.g., pocket depth or clinical attachment loss exceeding an established threshold) is present in number and pattern across observations (e.g., tooth sites) in the cluster according to a specific criterion. When a subset of observations within each cluster is selected (i.e., partial-mouth sampling), specificity of disease is 100% (in the absence of site-level measurement error), whereas sensitivity is imperfect and generally unknown. Using conditional probability arguments, we investigate disease misclassification under partial-cluster sampling and its impact on the estimated disease-exposure association when the exposure is cluster level and measured without error. RESULTS:: When the probability of disease varies by exposure status, outcome misclassification at the cluster level is differential under partial-cluster sampling and depends on 1) the partial recording protocol, including the number of observations sampled and the particular sites selected in a cluster; 2) the joint probability structure of the condition within clusters; and 3) the criterion for disease. A numeric example demonstrates that disease-exposure odds ratios under partial-cluster random sampling can be biased in either direction (toward or away from the null) relative to gold-standard odds ratios under full-cluster sampling. CONCLUSIONS:: In general, misclassification of disease is differential under partial-cluster sampling. In particular, sensitivity and negative predictive values depend on exposure status, which leads to biased inference. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT:: Partial-mouth sampling causes disease misclassification probabilities, including sensitivity, to vary by exposure groups when disease prevalence differs between groups. As a result, disease-exposure associations may be under- or overestimated by standard analysis procedures for periodontal data relative to full-mouth estimates. Procedures that address bias are needed for partial-recording protocols.

Impact of vitamin D supplementation on markers of inflammation in adults with cystic fibrosis hospitalized for a pulmonary exacerbation.

Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) suffer from chronic lung infection and inflammation leading to respiratory failure. Vitamin D deficiency is common in patients with CF, and correction of vitamin D deficiency may improve innate immunity and reduce inflammation in patients with CF. We conducted a double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of high-dose vitamin D to assess the impact of vitamin D therapy on antimicrobial peptide concentrations and markers of inflammation. We randomized 30 adults with CF hospitalized with a pulmonary exacerbation to 250,000 IU of cholecalciferol or placebo, and evaluated changes in plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers and the antimicrobial peptide LL-37 at baseline and 12 weeks post intervention. In the vitamin D group, there was a 50.4% reduction in tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) at 12 weeks (P<0.01), and there was a trend for a 64.5% reduction in interleukin-6 (IL-6) (P=0.09). There were no significant changes in IL-1ß, IL-8, IL-10, IL-18BP and NGAL (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin). We conclude that a large bolus dose of vitamin D is associated with reductions in two inflammatory cytokines, IL-6 and TNF-α. This study supports the concept that vitamin D may help regulate inflammation in CF, and that further research is needed to elucidate the potential mechanisms involved and the impact on clinical outcomes.

Logistic regression analysis of biomarker data subject to pooling and dichotomization.

There is growing interest in pooling specimens across subjects in epidemiologic studies, especially those involving biomarkers. This paper is concerned with regression analysis of epidemiologic data where a binary exposure is subject to pooling and the pooled measurement is dichotomized to indicate either that no subjects in the pool are exposed or that some are exposed, without revealing further information about the exposed subjects in the latter case. The pooling process may be stratified on the disease status (a binary outcome) and possibly other variables but is otherwise assumed random. We propose methods for estimating parameters in a prospective logistic regression model and illustrate these with data from a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer. Simulation results show that the proposed methods perform reasonably well in realistic settings and that pooling can lead to sizable gains in cost efficiency. We make recommendations with regard to the choice of design for pooled epidemiologic studies.

Correlation coefficient estimation involving a left censored laboratory assay variable.

When assessing a correlation between two exposure or biological marker variables, one sometimes encounters the problem of indeterminate values for one of the variables due to an assay detection limit. In this event, investigators often report correlation coefficients computed after removing the pairs involving non-detectable values, or after substituting some small constant for those values. These ad hoc practices can lead to bias in both point and confidence interval estimates of the true correlation coefficient. To address this issue, we consider two parametric techniques for estimating the correlation in the presence of left censoring for one of the variables. The first is a maximum likelihood approach, and the second is an adaptation of multiple imputation motivated primarily by potential benefits in confidence interval coverage. Both of the estimators studied reduce to the standard Pearson's correlation coefficient in the event of no censoring, and hence are valid in cases where this measure would be appropriate for the complete data. We assess these approaches empirically and contrast them with ad hoc methods for estimating the correlation between cervicovaginal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load measurements and CD4+ lymphocyte counts from HIV positive women enrolled in a clinical trial conducted in Bangkok, Thailand.

A mixture model for occupational exposure mean testing with a limit of detection.

Information from detectable exposure measurements randomly sampled from a left-truncated log-normal distribution may be used to evaluate the distribution of nondetectable values that fall below an analytic limit of detection. If the proportion of nondetects is larger than expected under log normality, alternative models to account for these unobserved data should be considered. We discuss one such model that incorporates a mixture of true zero exposures and a log-normal distribution with possible left censoring, previously considered in a different context by Moulton and Halsey (1995, Biometrics 51, 1570-1578). A particular relationship is demonstrated between maximum likelihood parameter estimates based on this mixture model and those assuming either left-truncated or left-censored data. These results emphasize the need for caution when choosing a model to fit data involving nondetectable values. A one-sided likelihood ratio test for comparing mean exposure under the mixture model to an occupational exposure limit is then developed and evaluated via simulations. An example demonstrates the potential impact of specifying an incorrect model for the nondetectable values.

HIV-associated neurologic disease incidence changes:: Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 1990-1998.

This study examined the temporal trends in the incidence rates of HIV dementia, cryptococcal meningitis, toxoplasmosis, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, and CNS lymphoma from January 1990 to December 1998 in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. The incidence rates for HIV dementia, cryptococcal meningitis, and lymphoma decreased following the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The proportion of new cases of HIV dementia with a CD4 count in a higher range (i.e., 201 to 350) since 1996 may be increasing.

The potentially poor response to outpatient diabetes care in urban African-Americans.

OBJECTIVE: HbA1c levels can be reduced in populations of diabetic patients, but some individuals may exhibit little improvement. To search for reasons underlying differences in HbA1c outcome, we analyzed patients managed in an outpatient diabetes clinic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: African-Americans with type 2 diabetes were categorized as responders, intermediate responders or poor responders according to their HbA1c level after 1 year of care. Logistical regression was used to determine baseline characteristics that distinguished poor responders from responders. Therapeutic strategies were examined for each of the response categories. RESULTS: The 447 patients had a mean age and disease duration of 58 and 5 years, respectively, and BMI of 32 kg/m2. Overall, the mean HbA1c level fell from 9.6 to 8.1% after 12 months. Mean HbA1c levels improved from 8.8 to 6.2% in responders, and from 9.5 to 7.9% in intermediate responders. In poor responders, the average HbA1c level was 10.8% on presentation and 10.9% at 1 year. The odds of being a poor responder were significantly increased with longer disease duration, higher initial HbA1c level, and greater BMI. Although doses of oral agents and insulin were significantly higher among poor responders at most visits, the acceleration of insulin therapy did not occur until late in the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical diabetes programs need to devise methods to identify patients who are at risk for persistent hyperglycemia. Whereas patient characteristics explain some heterogeneity of HbA1c outcome (and may aid in earlier identification of patients who potentially may not respond to conventional treatment), insufficient intensification of therapy may also be a component underlying the failure to achieve glycemic goals.

Correlating two viral load assays with known detection limits.

A timely objective common to many HIV studies involves assessing the correlation between two different measures of viral load obtained from each of a sample of patients. This correlation has scientific utility in a number of contexts, including those aimed at a comparison of competing assays for quantifying virus and those aimed at determining the level of association between viral loads in two different reservoirs using the same assay. A complication for the analyst seeking valid point and interval estimates of such a correlation is the fact that both variables may be subject to left censoring due to values below assay detection limits. We address this problem using a bivariate normal likelihood that accounts for left censoring of two variables that may have different detection limits. We provide simulation results to evaluate sampling properties of the resulting correlation estimator and compare it with ad hoc estimators in the presence of nondetects. In an effort to obtain improved confidence interval properties relative to the Wald approach, we evaluate and compare profile likelihood-based intervals. We apply the methods to HIV viral load data on women and infants from a trial in Bangkok, Thailand, and we discuss an extension of the original model to accommodate interval censoring arising due to the study design.

Indications for therapeutic plasma exchange at a university hospital and a regional blood center.

The AABB guidelines for therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) are divided into four categories: I. TPE is "standard and acceptable therapy," II. "generally accepted," III. "insufficient evidence to evaluate efficacy," and IV. "data suggest no therapeutic efficacy." Since little is known about the implementation of these guidelines, and since the indications for TPE may vary, depending upon an institution's patient mix, this study reviewed the indications and their categories for two co-located institutions. A retrospective review of the indications for all patients undergoing TPE from January 1, 1994 to December 31,1997 at Emory University Hospital (EUH), a tertiary-care teaching hospital, and the American Red Cross (ARC), a regional blood center, using AABB criteria (ASFA criteria used when not rated [NR] by AABB) was conducted. Categories I/II represented 75% and 88% of cases (EUH and ARC, respectively), while Categories III/IV/NR (NR as used below is "not rated" by both AABB and ASFA criteria; n is number of patients) were 25% and 12% of indications, respectively (P =0.002). Cases at EUH (n=101) were I, 62%; II, 13%; III, 3%; IV, 13%; and NR, 9%. Cases at ARC (n=359) were I, 77%; II, 11%; III, 9%; IV, 0%; and NR, 3% (P<0.001). No Category IV patients underwent TPE at ARC (13% at EUH). Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) was the most common indication for TPE at both centers. The majority of the procedures were "appropriate" (Categories III/); several disorders ( approximately 10%) for which TPE was utilized at both centers were NR by both AABB and ASFA guidelines. Indications for TPE may differ, depending on the type of requesting institution. Physicians requesting TPE for patients with disorders in Categories III/IV/NR should be more strongly encouraged to enter their patients into controlled trials to best evaluate the efficacy of TPE in inadequately-studied clinical situations. This might best be accomplished at university hospitals, where requests for Category III/IV/NR may be higher. A need exists for periodic updating of the AABB guidelines to include those diseases for which new information is available with regard to the potential therapeutic role of TPE.

Effects of covariate measurement error in the initial level and rate of change of an exposure variable.

When repeated measures of an exposure variable are obtained on individuals, it can be of epidemiologic interest to relate the slope of this variable over time to a subsequent response. Subject-specific estimates of this slope are measured with error, as are corresponding estimates of the level of exposure, i.e., the intercept of a linear regression over time. Because the intercept is often correlated with the slope and may also be associated with the outcome, each error-prone covariate (intercept and slope) is a potential confounder, thereby tending to accentuate potential biases due to measurement error. Under a familiar mixed linear model for the exposure measurements, we present closed-form estimators for the true parameters of interest in the case of a continuous outcome with complete and equally timed follow-up for all subjects. Generalizations to handle incomplete follow-up, other types of outcome variables, and additional fixed covariates are illustrated via maximum likelihood. We provide examples using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. In these examples, substantial adjustments are made to uncorrected parameter estimates corresponding to the health-related effects of exposure variable slopes over time. We illustrate the potential impact of such adjustments on the interpretation of an epidemiologic analysis.

Extragastrointestinal (soft tissue) stromal tumors: an analysis of 48 cases with emphasis on histologic predictors of outcome.

The clinicopathologic features of 48 tumors that were histologically similar to gastrointestinal stromal tumors but occurred in the soft tissues of the abdomen were analyzed to determine their overall similarity to their gastrointestinal counterpart, their biologic behavior, and the parameters that predict risk for adverse outcome. Classic leiomyomas and leiomyosarcomas were specifically excluded. The tumors occurred in 32 women and 16 men, who ranged in age from 31 to 82 years (mean, 58 years). Forty tumors arose from the soft tissue of the abdominal cavity, and the remainder arose from the retroperitoneum. They ranged in size from 2.1 to 32.0 cm and varied from tumors composed purely of rounded epithelioid cells to those composed of short fusiform cells set in a fine fibrillary collagenous background with some cases showing a mixed pattern. Tumors displayed variable amounts of stromal hyalinization, myxoid change, and cyst formation. The tumors expressed CD117 (c-kit receptor) (100%), CD34 (50%), neuron-specific enolase (44%), smooth muscle actin (26%), desmin (4%), and S-100 protein (4%). Tumors were evaluated with respect to several parameters: size (<10 cm or >10 cm), cellularity (low or high), mitoses (0 to 2 per 50 high-power fields, >2 per 50 high-power fields), nuclear atypia (1 to 3+), cell type (epithelioid, spindled, or mixed), and necrosis (absent or present). These parameters were then evaluated in univariate and multivariate analysis with respect to adverse or nonadverse outcome, the former defined as metastasis or death from tumor. Follow-up information was obtained for 31 patients (range, 4 to 84 months; median, 24 months). One patient presented with an adverse event and, therefore, was excluded from subsequent analysis. Twelve patients (39%) developed metastases or died of tumor. In univariate analyses, cellularity, mitotic activity (>2 per 50 high-power fields), and necrosis were associated with statistically significant increases in the risk for adverse outcome. Despite the relatively small sample size, in a multivariable analysis mitotic activity (relative risk, 7.46; P = .09) and necrosis (relative risk, 3.75; P = .07) displayed trends toward independent predictive value. No association was noted between histologic pattern and outcome. Although only 39% of tumors behaved in a malignant fashion, this figure probably represents a conservative estimate because long-term follow-up (>5 years) was available for only a limited number of patients. Stratification of patients who have extragastrointestinal stromal tumor into those with 0 to 1 adverse histologic factors versus those with 2 to 3 offers the advantage of separating patients into two groups that have a markedly different risk for adverse outcome in the short term (0.02 events versus 0.54 events per person-year; P < .001, respectively). Extragastrointestinal (soft tissue) stromal tumors are histologically and immunophenotypically similar to their gastrointestinal counterpart but have an aggressive course more akin to small intestinal than gastric stromal tumors.

(F-18) fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography as a predictor of pathologic grade and other prognostic variables in bone and soft tissue sarcoma.

Positron emission tomography (PET) can be used to measure tumor metabolism in sarcomas by measuring the standard uptake value (SUV) of (F-18) fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG). FDG-PET SUV has been shown to correlate with histological grade. We compared FDG-PET SUV in 89 bone and soft tissue sarcomas with histopathological features, including tumor grade, as well as with markers of cell proliferation and cell cycle regulatory gene expression that may be prognostically or therapeutically important. All patients had undergone PET before biopsy. Features evaluated included grade (National Cancer Institute for soft tissue or Mayo Clinic for bone), cellularity, and the number of mitoses per 10 400x fields. Deparaffinized, formalin-fixed sections were immunostained with antibodies to Ki-67 (MIB-1), p53 (DO7), p21WAF1 (EA10), and mdm-2 (1B10). For Ki-67, results were estimated as a percentage of positive cells. For p53 and mdm-2, only cases with >20% positive cells were considered to be overexpressing these proteins. For p21WAF1, only cases with <10% positive cells were considered to have lost normal p21WAF1 expression. Tumor S-phase percentage and ploidy were determined by flow cytometry. FDG-PET SUV was associated with histopathological grade, cellularity, mitotic activity, MIB labeling index, and p53 overexpression. No association was seen with p21WAF1, mdm-2, S-phase fraction, or ploidy. Tumor metabolism data acquired by FDG-PET may help ensure accurate grading and prognostication in sarcoma by guiding biopsy toward the most biologically significant regions of large masses. Further follow-up will be necessary to determine whether FDG-PET provides independent prognostic information.

Improvement in HIV-associated motor slowing after antiretroviral therapy including protease inhibitors.

A study of neuropsychological performance was conducted in 33 HIV+ patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Grooved Pegboard (GP) non-dominant hand performance improved in 23/33 (70%) subjects (P=0.002). Among 23 patients with motor slowing (GP non-dominant hand z score < -1.0) at baseline, 18 (78%) improved on the GP non-dominant hand test after initiating HAART (P=0.001). GP non-dominant hand performance improved longitudinally in HIV+ patients initiating HAART, while matched HIV+ controls not on HAART did not change (P=0.045). Significant improvement in motor performance can occur after HAART in HIV+ patients with impairment.

Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 viremia after seroconversion and proximal to AIDS in a large cohort of homosexual men. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

The natural history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viremia and its association with clinical outcomes after seroconversion was characterized in a cohort of homosexual men. HIV-1 RNA was measured by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in stored longitudinal plasma samples from 269 seroconverters. Subjects were generally antiretroviral drug naive for the first 3 years after seroconversion. The decline in CD4 lymphocyte counts was strongly associated with initial HIV RNA measurements. Both initial HIV RNA levels and slopes were associated with AIDS-free times. Median slopes were +0.18, +0.09, and -0.01 log10 copies/mL, respectively, for subjects developing AIDS <3, 3-7, and>7 years after seroconversion. In contrast, HIV RNA slopes in the 3 years preceding AIDS and HIV RNA levels at AIDS diagnosis showed little variation according to total AIDS-free time. HIV RNA load at the first HIV-seropositive visit ( approximately 3 months after seroconversion) was highly predictive of AIDS, and subsequent HIV RNA measurements showed even better prognostic discrimination.

Quantitative and qualitative differences in the serum antibody profiles of human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons with and without Cryptococcus neoformans meningitis.

The importance of humoral immunity for resistance to Cryptococcus neoformans is uncertain. A case-controlled study of the human antibody response to C. neoformans comparing the serum antibody profiles of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons who did (HIV+/CM+) or did not (HIV-infected controls) develop cryptococcal meningitis (CM) and HIV-uninfected persons with samples obtained from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study was performed. Total immunoglobulin concentrations were determined, and the specificity, isotype, and idiotype expression of antibodies to C. neoformans capsular glucuronoxylomannan were analyzed by ELISA. Compared with the HIV+/CM+ group, the HIV-infected control group had significantly lower levels of total IgM, IgA, and antibodies expressing a certain VH3 determinant. The HIV-infected control group manifested an increase in immunoglobulin levels with a decrease in CD4 lymphocytes. The findings suggest a possible association between reduced expression of certain immunoglobulin subsets and HIV-associated CM.

Adjusting for measurement error to assess health effects of variability in biomarkers. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

Longitudinal studies of health effects often relate individuals' biomarker levels to disease progression. Repeated measurements also provide an opportunity to assess within-individual biomarker variability, and it is reasonable to postulate that this measure might provide additional information about a particular outcome variable. Given the existing precedent for application of adjustment methods to account for measurement error in subject-specific average levels of a covariate, this concept motivates the application of such methods to incorporate variability as well. In this paper, we investigate the nature of the relationship between the decline of CD4 cell count induced by infection with human immunodeficiency virus, and CD4 level and variability prior to infection. We first describe the distribution of repeated CD4 measurements prior to infection using a model that accounts both for random average levels and random subject-specific variance components. Based on this model, we define true unobservable random variables that correspond to prior level and stability. We perform a linear regression analysis, using these latent variables as covariates, by means of a full maximum likelihood approach. We compare the resulting parameter estimates with those based on regressions employing sample-based estimates of pre-infection levels and variances, and empirical Bayes estimates of these quantities. Although the final inferences are similar to those based on the unadjusted analysis, we find that the magnitude of association with prior level decreases, while that with prior stability increases. Stratified analyses indicate that smoking status affects the relationship between prior CD4 level and initial CD4 decline. We point out advantages associated with the maximum likelihood approach in this particular application.

Combination antiretroviral therapy improves psychomotor speed performance in HIV-seropositive homosexual men. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS).

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy including protease inhibitors (combo+PI) is effective in suppressing systemic viral load in HIV infection, but its impact on HIV-associated cognitive impairment is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether psychomotor speed, a sensitive measure of impairment in HIV dementia, improves with combo+PI compared with other antiretroviral treatments. METHODS: A total of 411 HIV-seropositive (HIV+) homosexual men (with longitudinal neuropsychological testing) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and, in a separate analysis, 282 HIV+ homosexual men with psychomotor slowing at baseline were classified by treatment into four groups: antiretroviral naive (no antiretroviral medication treatment), monotherapy, combination antiretroviral therapy without protease inhibitors (combo-noPI), and combo+PI. We compared longitudinal performance on three tests of psychomotor speed: the Grooved Pegboard (GP) (nondominant and dominant hands), Trail Making Test B, and the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). RESULTS: Relative to antiretroviral-naïve and monotherapy participants, on the GP nondominant hand test, combo+PI participants with abnormal baseline neuropsychological testing showed improved performance (difference = +0.63 standard deviation [SD], p = 0.02). For the SDMT, both combo+PI participants (difference = +0.26 SD, p = 0.03) and combo-noPI participants (difference = +0.29 SD, p = 0.01) with abnormal baseline neuropsychological testing improved compared with antiretroviral-naïve and monotherapy groups. CONCLUSION: Combo+PI and combo-noPI are associated with improved psychomotor speed performance in HIV+ homosexual men with abnormal neuropsychological testing.

Prognostic value of plasma HIV RNA in the natural history of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cytomegalovirus and Mycobacterium avium complex. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To use follow-up on untreated HIV-positive men to assess the prognostic information provided by baseline data on plasma HIV RNA, CD4 cell count, age, and HIV-related symptom status, separately for three specific AIDS-defining illnesses: Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). METHODS: The study population were 734 HIV-positive homosexual men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, with follow-up (1984-1985 through mid-1988) restricted to the antiretroviral treatment-free and prophylaxis-free era. Baseline marker values were categorized and assessed as predictor variables in separate time-to-event analyses for each of the three specific outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 138 cases of PCP, 25 cases of CMV, and 25 cases of MAC were observed. For PCP and CMV, higher categories of HIV RNA and lower categories of CD4 cell count were associated with increased risk relative to the respective reference groups. For MAC, oral candidiasis or fever and elevated HIV RNA at baseline were the primary risk factors. Further analysis highlighted the importance of monitoring HIV RNA levels in addition to CD4 cell counts when evaluating patients' risk of developing PCP. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of treatment, plasma HIV RNA levels provide prognostic information about the risk of these three specific AIDS-defining illnesses, independently of the CD4 cell count. These data provide a useful reference as researchers investigate changing patterns in the incidence and predictors of opportunistic infections in the era of increasingly active antiretroviral therapies.

Classifying individuals based on predictors of random effects. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

Often one wishes to describe individuals according to whether their average exposure over a period of time is above or below some meaningful threshold. In this article, we treat predictors of random effects as diagnostic tools to aid in such classification, given that the true unobservable mean exposure for each of a set of individuals is defined according to a mixed linear model. Viewing candidate predictors in this light engenders the consideration of a unique set of performance criteria, and invites the use of nomenclature commonly used by epidemiologists and decision analysts to evaluate diagnostic techniques. We describe these criteria analytically and graphically under a random effects analysis of variance model, with the expressed goal of classifying subjects with regard to their true mean. Given knowledge of the model parameters, we compare typical predictors and illustrate the fact that completely new alternatives can arise depending on the particular set of criteria emphasized. We include a brief simulation study in which we also compare prediction methods according to various classification criteria, after incorporating estimates of the unknown model parameters. We provide two examples using data from participants in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. In the first example, we seek to classify HIV seronegative individuals based on their mean diastolic blood pressure. In the second, via a natural extension to a randomized regression model, we classify HIV seropositive individuals according to their CD4+ slope over time.

Plasma viral load and CD4 lymphocytes predict HIV-associated dementia and sensory neuropathy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictive value of plasma HIV RNA and CD4 lymphocytes for HIV-associated dementia and sensory neuropathy. METHODS: A total of 1,604 AIDS-free HIV seropositive men from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study were followed over a 10-year period (1985 to 1995). HIV-associated dementia and sensory neuropathy were diagnosed according to standard definitions. Baseline samples were used to measure plasma HIV RNA levels with a branched DNA assay and levels of beta2-microglobulin, CD4 lymphocyte counts, and hemoglobin levels. RESULTS: Seventy-seven patients with HIV-associated dementia and 213 patients with sensory neuropathy were identified. Baseline HIV RNA levels above 3,000 copies/mL and CD4 counts below 500 cells/mm3 were predictive of both neurologic outcomes, but neither hemoglobin, body mass index, nor beta2-microglobulin were independently predictive. After adjusting for age and level of education, individuals with baseline plasma HIV RNA >30,000 copies/mL had a relative hazard for dementia 8.5 times (p < 0.001) that of those with <3,000 copies/mL, and those with CD4 counts <200 cells/mm3 had a 3.5-fold (p = 0.003) greater hazard relative to those with CD4 counts >500 cells/mm3. Individuals with HIV RNA >10,000 copies/mL had a 2.3-fold (p = 0.008) greater hazard of sensory neuropathy than those with <500 copies/mL, and men with <750 CD4 cells/mm3 had a 1.4-fold (p = 0.03) greater hazard than those with >750 CD4 cells/mm3. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of systemic HIV replication may "drive" the initiation of neurologic disease; effective suppression of HIV may reduce the incidence of dementia and neuropathy. Levels of plasma HIV RNA and CD4 counts, determined before the initiation of antiretroviral therapy, were predictive of HIV-associated dementia and sensory neuropathy.