Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar.

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions.

Conservation focus: the challenge of conservation in changing tropical southeast asia.

Southeast Asia is a biodiversity hotspot where the risk of extinction for many vertebrates is high (Duckworth et al. 2012) due to the loss and degradation of habitats resulting from burgeoning human populations and economies, expansion of agricultural development, and unsustainable harvest of wildlife and other natural resources (Sodhi et al. 2010). Important conservation challenges in the region, especially in the terrestrial and coastal realms, include reducing the loss and degradation of native vegetation and reducing the risk of species' extinction and extirpation. This will involve mitigating impacts of land-use change, reducing human-wildlife conflicts, improving management of protected areas, resolving land-tenure conflicts, increasing community engagement in in resource conservation, and ultimately developing proconservation behaviors in Asian societies as a whole. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Where and how are roads endangering mammals in Southeast Asia's forests?

Habitat destruction and overhunting are two major drivers of mammal population declines and extinctions in tropical forests. The construction of roads can be a catalyst for these two threats. In Southeast Asia, the impacts of roads on mammals have not been well-documented at a regional scale. Before evidence-based conservation strategies can be developed to minimize the threat of roads to endangered mammals within this region, we first need to locate where and how roads are contributing to the conversion of their habitats and illegal hunting in each country. We interviewed 36 experts involved in mammal research from seven Southeast Asian countries to identify roads that are contributing the most, in their opinion, to habitat conversion and illegal hunting. Our experts highlighted 16 existing and eight planned roads - these potentially threaten 21% of the 117 endangered terrestrial mammals in those countries. Apart from gathering qualitative evidence from the literature to assess their claims, we demonstrate how species-distribution models, satellite imagery and animal-sign surveys can be used to provide quantitative evidence of roads causing impacts by (1) cutting through habitats where endangered mammals are likely to occur, (2) intensifying forest conversion, and (3) contributing to illegal hunting and wildlife trade. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to identify specific roads threatening endangered mammals in Southeast Asia. Further through highlighting the impacts of roads, we propose 10 measures to limit road impacts in the region.

Near-complete extinction of native small mammal fauna 25 years after forest fragmentation.

Tropical forests continue to be felled and fragmented around the world. A key question is how rapidly species disappear from forest fragments and how quickly humans must restore forest connectivity to minimize extinctions. We surveyed small mammals on forest islands in Chiew Larn Reservoir in Thailand 5 to 7 and 25 to 26 years after isolation and observed the near-total loss of native small mammals within 5 years from <10-hectare (ha) fragments and within 25 years from 10- to 56-ha fragments. Based on our results, we developed an island biogeographic model and estimated mean extinction half-life (50% of resident species disappearing) to be 13.9 years. These catastrophic extinctions were probably partly driven by an invasive rat species; such biotic invasions are becoming increasingly common in human-modified landscapes. Our results are thus particularly relevant to other fragmented forest landscapes and suggest that small fragments are potentially even more vulnerable to biodiversity loss than previously thought.

Comparative sensitivity to environmental variation and human disturbance of Asian tapirs (Tapirus indicus) and other wild ungulates in Thailand.

Southeast Asia's tropical forests suffer the highest rates of deforestation and disturbance of any on Earth, with poorly understood impacts on native fauna. Asian tapirs (Tapirus indicus) are among the least studied of the large mammals in these forests. Using records from 9 camera trap surveys in 7 of the largest (>1000 km(2) ) protected area complexes, we assessed the influence of environmental variation and human-induced disturbance on tapir occurrence. Tapirs were detected at 13% of locations sampled, significantly associated with evergreen forest (P < 0.001). A multiple logistic regression model predicted tapir presence 87% of the time. According to this model, tapir occurrence was positively influenced by annual rainfall and proximity to the forest edge. However, tapirs may not avoid edges but instead prefer wetter evergreen forest, a habitat type that tended to occur further from the forest edge at higher elevations in our particular study sites (P < 0.001). By comparison, 4 other wild ungulate species that share habitats with tapirs showed a range of differing responses. Tapirs are expected to be less sensitive to disturbance because they are not targets for hunting and trade, and are almost entirely active at night, so avoid peak traffic periods in parks. Tapir populations in Thailand may be more stable than in other parts of their global range because rates of forest loss have decreased >40% over the past 20 years. We recommend surveys to fill gaps in the understanding of the status in lesser-known protected areas, research to better understand the fine-scale environmental influences on behavior and habitats of tapirs, and other forest ungulates, and continued legal status for tapirs in the highest category of protection.

Securing a future for wild Indochinese tigers: Transforming tiger vacuums into tiger source sites.

A century ago, tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) were so common in parts of Southeast Asia as to be considered pests, and governments sponsored their killing. Habitat loss and fragmentation, market-driven poaching and loss of prey have since led to the disappearance of Indochinese tigers from most their former range. Despite 15 years of dedicated tiger conservation funding, national estimates of Indochinese tiger subpopulations can at best only be roughly approximated. The future for the subspecies appears grim unless very focused efforts can be applied to stabilize and recover subpopulations. On a regional scale, the 2 proposed subspecies Panthera tigris corbetti and P. tigris jacksoni are effectively managed as separate conservation units. Evaluating where to place conservation efforts should consider the vulnerability (likelihood of extinction) and irreplaceability (likelihood that an area contributes uniquely to regional conservation) of tiger subpopulations. Only 1 site in Thailand supporting <200 individuals (Huai Kha Khaeng-Thung Yai) is considered low vulnerability, and is irreplaceable. Five sites in Lao, Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia are medium vulnerability and irreplaceable. Priorities at these 6 sites are to double tiger numbers within 10 years through protection and monitoring. Seven sites in Lao, Thailand and Myanmar are high vulnerability and irreplaceable, and might be recovered if government commitment to tigers, staff capacity and legal frameworks for tiger protection are established. Tigers are extremely vulnerable or even extinct in Cambodia's Eastern Plains and the site is irreplaceable for tigers because it represents the only large (>10,000 km(2) ) block of dry forest habitat available in the region. A reintroduction program is the only option to recover tigers there.

Developing a national tiger action plan for The Union of Myanmar.

A century ago, tigers were considered pests in Myanmar. Hunters claimed thousands, yet populations persisted. In the past century, because of habitat loss and prey depletion, coupled with the recent demand for traditional medicines, tiger populations have been reduced to a few hundred individuals. As a first step toward long-term planning for tigers, and to guide efforts to increase protected area coverage, the Myanmar government in 1998 initiated a project to develop a revised National Tiger Action Plan. Extensive surveys confirmed tigers in only 4 of 17 survey locations. Significant populations are thought to persist in the far North and far South of the country, where large, intact forests offer the potential for tiger recovery. With partnerships and collaborations, tiger populations can be protected in the short term (<5 years) by expanding protected areas and corridors, mobilizing enforcement staff to reduce poaching of tigers and prey, and amending existing wildlife legislation in accordance with international laws. Over the long term (5-20 years), recovery of Myanmar's tiger populations will depend on increasing support from local people, zoning tiger areas to reduce habitat loss and disturbance, and maintaining connectivity of existing national and transboundary forests. This article reviews the development of a new National Tiger Action Plan for the Union of Myanmar and discusses a blueprint for conservation measures aimed at saving tigers from extinction.