Projected effectiveness and added value of HIV vaccination campaigns in South Africa: A modeling study.

Promising multi-dose HIV vaccine regimens are being tested in trials in South Africa. We estimated the potential epidemiological and economic impact of HIV vaccine campaigns compared to continuous vaccination, assuming that vaccine efficacy is transient and dependent on immune response. We used a dynamic economic mathematical model of HIV transmission calibrated to 2012 epidemiological data to simulate vaccination with anticipated antiretroviral treatment scale-up in South Africa. We estimate that biennial vaccination with a 70% efficacious vaccine reaching 20% of the sexually active population could prevent 480,000-650,000 HIV infections (13.8-15.3% of all infections) over 10 years. Assuming a launch price of $15 per dose, vaccination was found to be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $13,746 per quality-adjusted life-year as compared to no vaccination. Increasing vaccination coverage to 50% will prevent more infections but is less likely to achieve cost-effectiveness. Campaign vaccination is consistently more effective and costs less than continuous vaccination across scenarios. Results suggest that a partially effective HIV vaccine will have substantial impact on the HIV epidemic in South Africa and offer good value if priced less than $105 for a five-dose series. Vaccination campaigns every two years may offer greater value for money than continuous vaccination reaching the same coverage level.

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient to control the epidemic. TPR has been defined as the ratio of yearly number of new HIV infections to the yearly number of new ART initiations or to the yearly net increase in the number of people on ART. It has been used to rank the progress of treatment programmes across countries, with the objective of reaching a TPR value under 1. Our study aims to assess if TPR alone can be used as an indicator of ART success across settings by comparing the expected changes in HIV incidence and ART coverage when TPR is maintained constant over time. In particular, we focus on the effect of ART initiation timing (emphasis on ART being initiated early or late during HIV progression) on the interpretation of the TPR. METHODS: We used a dynamic model of HIV transmission in South Africa representing ART rollout leading to universal treatment in 2017. The model is calibrated to HIV incidence, HIV prevalence and ART coverage in 2012 in South Africa, and 1000 simulations are selected for the base-case scenario. To measure the effect of TPR, we simulate TPR-preserving interventions, maintaining TPR (yearly number of new ART initiations denominator) at the value observed in 2019 (between 0.65 and 1.25) for 15 years. We compare ART coverage and HIV incidence across TPR values and across strategies in which ART access is prioritized differently. In a secondary analysis, we illustrate the sensitivity of new ART initiations to ART retention, and we compare both definitions of the TPR. RESULTS: Our analysis shows that HIV incidence reduction is weakly correlated to TPR: the same reduction in HIV incidence (15%) can be achieved by implementing the same strategy with a wide range of TPR maintained (0.65-1.12). Assuming high retention in ART, TPR-preserving strategies prioritizing early ART initiation yield greater reduction in HIV incidence than strategies where most individuals initiate ART late. High ART coverage is associated with low HIV incidence and it can be reached with a TPR below or equal to one with strategies favoring early ART initiation. Low ART retention over time results in higher HIV incidence even if TPR is maintained low. If ART retention is low, strategies prioritizing late ART initiation are associated with lower HIV incidence than strategies where ART is initiated early. Maintaining a fixed TPR value based on the net increase in people on ART gives higher HIV incidence reduction and requires fast ART scale-up. CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that the TPR is not an adequate indicator of ART programme impact, without information on ART coverage and retention. Achieving early initiation and adherence to treatment to improve ART coverage might be as important as attaining a specific TPR target. Comparisons of TPR in different settings should account for differences in epidemic conditions.

On the Analytical Solution of Firing Time for SpikeProp.

Error backpropagation in networks of spiking neurons (SpikeProp) shows promise for the supervised learning of temporal patterns. However, its widespread use is hindered by its computational load and occasional convergence failures. In this letter, we show that the neuronal firing time equation at the core of SpikeProp can be solved analytically using the Lambert W function, offering a marked reduction in execution time over the step-based method used in the literature. Applying this analytical method to SpikeProp, we find that training time per epoch can be reduced by 12% to 56% under different experimental conditions. Finally, this work opens the way for further investigations of SpikeProp's convergence behavior.

PrEP Adherence Patterns Strongly Affect Individual HIV Risk and Observed Efficacy in Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suggest that the efficacy of tenofovir-based preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strongly depends on the consistency of PrEP use. We explore how the patterns of pill taking and waning of PrEP protection may affect PrEP efficacy for HIV prevention. METHODS: A 2-arm RCT was simulated by mathematical models assuming that the prescribed daily doses were skipped periodically, randomly, or in large blocks. Risk-driven adherence, in which PrEP was taken when sex was expected, was also investigated. Three temporal PrEP protection profiles were explored: long (5 days), intermediate (3 days), and short (24 hours). Modeling results were compared to the efficacy observed in completed RCTs. RESULTS: The expected PrEP efficacy was 60% with periodic, 50% with random, and 34% with block adherence when PrEP had a long protection profile and pills were taken only 50% of the days. Risk-driven pill taking resulted in 29% and 37% daily pills taken and efficacy of 43% and 51%, respectively, for long protection. High PrEP efficacy comparable with that observed in Partners PrEP and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Botswana trials was simulated under long protection, high overall adherence, and limited block pill taking; the moderate efficacy observed in iPrEx and Bangkok trials was comparable with the 50% adherence scenarios under random pill taking and long protection. CONCLUSIONS: Pill-taking patterns may have a substantial impact on the protection provided by PrEP even when the same numbers of pills are taken. When PrEP retains protection for longer than a day, pill-taking patterns can explain a broad range of efficacies observed in PrEP RCTs.

Beating the placebo in HIV prevention efficacy trials: the role of the minimal efficacy bound.

OBJECTIVES: To produce an effect on the HIV epidemic, preventive interventions need to achieve a minimum level of efficacy to offset potential indirect effects such as an increase in risky behavior. The current generation of HIV prevention trials on oral preexposure prophylaxis and on vaginal microbicides were designed using different set points for minimum individual-level efficacy (MIE). Some trials were designed not only to show superiority over placebo but also to rule out lower efficacies. The MIE has a substantial impact on the size and cost of a trial. Ideally, the MIE should be chosen to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of population-level effects. In this article, we investigate the effect of MIE on estimates of population-level impact to better inform trial design. METHODS: We used mathematical model simulations assuming various rates of efficacy obtained from trials and different MIEs to study the impact of wide-scale interventions on 2 public health indicators. RESULTS: Implementation factors were the main drivers of uncertainty in public health indicators for an intervention, although MIE also contributed. The level of uncertainty introduced by the MIE was substantially lower than that of the other factors. CONCLUSIONS: Investigators in clinical trials have set the MIE solely on the basis of potential public health impact. However, the substantial increase in trial costs associated with a large MIE is unlikely to be justified. These additional funds would be better spent in evaluating more critical implementation factors that cannot be assessed in clinical trials.

Utility of colposcopy in a phase 2 portion of a microbicide clinical trial of BufferGel and 0.5% PRO 2000 Gel.

BACKGROUND: The majority of new HIV infections are acquired through heterosexual transmission. There is urgent need for prevention methods to compliment behavior change and condom use. Topical microbicide represent a potential strategy for reduction of HIV transmission in women. METHODS: Monthly Colposcopy evaluations were performed during pelvic examinations among 299 women enrolled in the Phase 2 portion of HPTN 035 study at four sites (1 in USA, 3 in Southern Africa). This was a phase 2/2b, multisite, randomized, and controlled clinical trial with four arms: BufferGel, 0.5% PRO2000 Gel, placebo gel and no gel. At two of the sites, pelvic examinations were conducted by the use of naked eye without colposcopy. RESULTS: A colposcopy finding of any kind was detected in 48% of participants at baseline compared to 40% at 3 months (p =0.04). The lower rates were also observed in vaginal discharge (22% at baseline, 16% at 3 months, p=0.06), erythema (15% at baseline, 8% at 3 months, p=0.004). The trend towards significance at p=0.05 disappear when utilizing stringent statistical significance levels. A pelvic finding of any kind was detected in 71% of colposcopy participants compared to 41% of participants who had naked eye examination only conducted at two sites that performed both colposcopy and naked eye without colposcopy. Use of colposcopy yielded significantly higher rates of participants with deep epithelial disruption, erythema and ecchymosis. We observed no cases of incident Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, or Syphilis during the three month follow up. There were 2 cases of incident HIV during 3-month study period neither of which was associated with any abnormal colposcopy evaluation findings. CONCLUSION: No safety signals were observed in the 4 study arms, allowing seamless transition from phase 2 to 2b. Colposcopy utility in microbicide clinical trials has minimal value given high rates of background noise findings of no relevant clinical significance.

Impact of Pill Sharing on Drug Resistance Due to a Wide-Scale Oral Prep Intervention in Generalized Epidemics.

BACKGROUND: The first antiretroviral drug (Truvada) to be used as a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV transmission is about to be approved. Behavioral studies suggest that a portion of users may share anti-retroviral drugs with sex partners, family, or friends. Pill sharing will decrease PrEP efficacy and adherence level, and potentially create an environment favorable for the development of drug resistance. We aim to evaluate the potential impact of pill sharing on the PrEP effectiveness and on the rates of drug-resistance development in heterosexual populations. METHODS: A transmission dynamic model was used to assess the population-level impact of oral PrEP. The fractions of new HIV infections prevented (CPF), drug resistance prevalence and the proportion of new infections in which drug-resistant HIV is transmitted (TDR) are evaluated over fixed time periods. The influence of different factors on CPF and TDR is studied through simulations, using epidemic parameters representative of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Without pill sharing, a 70% efficacious PrEP used consistently by 60% of uninfected individuals prevents 52.8% (95% CI 49.4%-56.4%) of all new HIV infections over ten years with drug-resistant HIV transmitted in 2.2% of the new infections. Absolute CPF may vary by 9% if up to 20% of the users share PrEP while the level of TDR and total resistance prevalence may increase by up to 6-fold due to pill sharing in some intervention scenarios. CONCLUSION: Pill sharing may increase the PrEP coverage level achieved in the population but it also affects the PrEP efficacy for the users who do not follow the prescribed schedule. More importantly, it creates a pool of untracked users who remain unreached by the effort to avoid sub-optimal PrEP usage by infected people. This increases substantially the potential risk of drug resistance in the population.

Partially hidden Markov model for time-varying principal stratification in HIV prevention trials.

It is frequently of interest to estimate the intervention effect that adjusts for post-randomization variables in clinical trials. In the recently completed HPTN 035 trial, there is differential condom use between the three microbicide gel arms and the No Gel control arm, so that intention to treat (ITT) analyses only assess the net treatment effect that includes the indirect treatment effect mediated through differential condom use. Various statistical methods in causal inference have been developed to adjust for post-randomization variables. We extend the principal stratification framework to time-varying behavioral variables in HIV prevention trials with a time-to-event endpoint, using a partially hidden Markov model (pHMM). We formulate the causal estimand of interest, establish assumptions that enable identifiability of the causal parameters, and develop maximum likelihood methods for estimation. Application of our model on the HPTN 035 trial reveals an interesting pattern of prevention effectiveness among different condom-use principal strata.

Efficacy dilution in randomized placebo-controlled vaginal microbicide trials.

BACKGROUND: To date different vaginal gel microbicides have been evaluated in phase 2b/3 trials, but none have demonstrated effectiveness for preventing HIV infection. Failure to demonstrate effectiveness however does not necessarily indicate that a product is truly inefficacious, as several sources of efficacy dilution may compromise our ability to identify products that may have been truly efficacious. METHODS: For four individual sources of dilution, we describe the dilution mechanisms and quantify the expected effectiveness. An overall expected effectiveness that combines all sources of dilution in a trial is derived as well. RESULTS: Under conditions that have been observed in recent microbicide trials, the overall expected effectiveness assuming an active gel with true efficacy of 50% and 75% are in the range of [16%; 33%] and [28%; 50%], respectively, when considering the four major sources of dilution. In contrast the diluting effect due to adherence alone (assuming an adherence of 80%) leads to higher expected effectiveness, 40% and 60% assuming an active gel with true efficacy of 50% and 75%, respectively. Individual sources of dilution may demonstrate a small effect when evaluated independently, but the overall dilution effect in a trial with several sources of dilution can be quite substantial. CONCLUSION: Currently planned phase 2b/3 microbicide trials of new candidate vaginal microbicides are not immune from these shortcomings. A good understanding of dilution effects is necessary to properly interpret microbicide trial results and to identify products worthy of further development and evaluation. Greater attention should be devoted to reducing and assessing the impact of efficacy dilution and to carefully selecting the effect size in the design of future trials.

Determinants of HIV seroconversion among men who have sex with men living in a low HIV incidence population in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and associated risk factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in the Omega Cohort Study in Montreal, 1996-2003. METHODS: Longitudinal study of 1587 MSM seronegative at baseline with > or =1 six-month follow-up visit. Multivariate Cox regression with time-dependent variables was used for data analysis. RESULTS: HIV incidence was 0.62 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.84). In multivariate analyses compared with subjects not reporting any anal sex with serodiscordant or casual partners, those reporting anal sex with such partners (all P values <0.05), whether consistently protected [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.4], or unprotected exclusively receptive (HR = 12.0), exclusively insertive (HR = 4.7), or both receptive and insertive (HR = 8.3), were at increased risk of seroconversion. Sexual behaviors with seroconcordant regular partners were not associated with seroconversion. CONCLUSION: These results observed in a cohort of MSM with low HIV incidence provide new insights regarding the debate about harm-reduction strategies to prevent sexual HIV transmission.

The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV--insights from clinical trial simulation.

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%-77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women.

Risk reduction counseling is associated with decreased HIV transmission-associated behaviors in high-risk Indian heterosexuals.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of HIV and study the impact of risk-reduction counseling (RRC) in a cohort of people with high-risk behavior for HIV transmission in Chennai, India. DESIGN: Prospective cohort follow-up of 500 HIV-negative people (250 men and 250 women) at increased risk for HIV acquisition in Chennai, India for a maximum of 1 year was conducted. They received RRC at 0, 6, and 12 months. Generalized estimating equation methodology was used to determine the statistical significance of differences reported in behavior between baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. RESULTS: The overall HIV incidence in this cohort was 0.44 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 0.05-1.60). In the course of the study, both male and female participants reported statistically significant decreases in the number of different sexual partners, the number of new partners, and the proportion of sexual encounters with nonprimary partners. Participants who had more than 3 different partners at baseline and/or exchanged money for sex in the 6 months before enrollment demonstrated the greatest reductions in the number of different sexual partners. CONCLUSIONS: Individualized sexual RRC seems to be a useful intervention to reduce risk-taking behavior among at-risk heterosexuals in India.

HIV prevalence, sociodemographic, and behavioral correlates and recruitment methods among injection drug users in St. Petersburg, Russia.

OBJECTIVE: In St. Petersburg, Russia, we sought to describe the characteristics of active high-risk injection drug users (IDUs) to evaluate the associations between behavioral and demographic characteristics and HIV-1 infection and to describe 3 discrete recruitment methods. METHODS: Active high-risk IDUs were recruited in 3 ways: through street outreach, at facilities serving IDUs, and by network-based chain referral. Recruits were screened, counseled, and tested for HIV-1. Sociodemographic and behavioral data were collected. HIV-1 prevalence was analyzed as a function of sociodemographic and behavioral variables. RESULTS: During the 10-month recruitment period, data from 900 participants were collected: median age was 24 years, and in the previous month, 96% used heroin and 75% shared needles with others. The baseline HIV prevalence was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27 to 33). Recruitment through social networks was the most productive strategy. HIV-positive individuals were younger, but none of the other sociodemographic or behavioral characteristics differed significantly by HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated HIV prevalence of 30% places St. Petersburg among the worst IDU-concentrated epidemics in Europe. Recruitment through network-based chain referral is a useful method for recruiting active IDUs. Sociodemographic and behavioral links to prevalent HIV infection remain to be elucidated.

HIV incidence and factors associated with HIV acquisition among injection drug users in St Petersburg, Russia.

BACKGROUND: The Russian HIV-1 epidemic has been driven by injection drug use. OBJECTIVE: To determine HIV incidence and identify demographic and behavioral correlates of infection to facilitate the development of longitudinal HIV prevention programs. METHODS: In 2002, a cohort of 520 injection drug users (IDU) in St Petersburg, Russia were recruited and tested and counseled for HIV-1. HIV-seronegative IDU were enrolled and reevaluated at 6 and 12 months. HIV testing was performed and sociodemographic and behavioral data were collected during each study visit. The relationship of sociodemographic and behavioral factors to HIV-1 incidence was assessed. RESULTS: Most enrolled subjects were young, male, living at home, educated, heroin users, and frequently shared needles and other injection paraphernalia. The retention rate at the 12 month follow-up was 80%. The HIV-1 incidence rate was 4.5/100 person-years. In univariate analysis, psychostimulant use, especially frequent use, three or more sex partners in the past 6 months, and females selling sex were associated with HIV seroconversion. In the multivariate analysis, psychostimulant use three or more times per week was the only factor still associated with HIV seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: The high incidence of HIV infection places St Petersburg among the worst IDU-concentrated epidemics in Europe. Interventions targeting psychostimulant and heroin users and their accompanying behaviors such as frequent injections and increased sexual activity are needed immediately.