[Can neurological soft signs (NSS) contribute to the prediction of dangerousness in mentally disordered offenders?]. / Leisten neurological soft signs (NSS) einen Beitrag zur Gefährlichkeitseinschätzung psychisch kranker Straftäter gemäss 63 StGB?

The prediction of dangerousness in mentally disordered offenders is still as well complex as insufficiently empirically proven. So far more or less valid criteria for predicting recidivism have been determined concerning historical and clinical aspects. Whereas biological, neurological and neuropsychological variables that could be of importance for the development of chronic delinquent behavior have mostly been neglected. This article deals with the relevance of neurological soft signs (NSS) for the prediction of dangerousness in mentally ill offenders as one possible factor in a multidimensional model. 155 patients were examined after a minimum time at risk of 2 years (mean 4 years). The results showed that on the one hand there is no relevant and valid connection between neurological soft signs and recidivism for the general heterogeneous group of forensic patients. On the other hand similar results arose for the subgroup of patients with a personality disorder without intellectual deficits as for the homogeneous group of offenders in prisons. Therefore a significant meaning of NSS for certain subgroups can be presumed.

Risk assessment of sexual offenders in German forensic institutions.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of recidivism in sexual offenders is an urgent topic for forensic psychiatry in Germany. The call for useful predictive measures is therefore getting louder. AIMS: The present study analyses which criteria are employed by therapists in forensic hospitals to assess the dangerousness of sexual offenders. Of particular interest is whether the criteria listed in presently known prediction scores as decisive are actually used in decision-making in current forensic psychiatric practice. METHOD: Data are collected in a prospective prediction study funded by the German Research Association. RESULTS: The results reveal that therapists employ mainly clinical and less historical criteria, thus indicating substantial differences from currently known prediction scores and results of other studies. CONCLUSIONS: That therapists base their prediction of dangerousness primarily on clinical variables reveals a substantial error that has to be remedied. Further research on the extent of relevance of clinical variables is needed.

[Preliminary recidivism rates of the Essener prognosis study]. / Aktuelle Rückfalldaten der Essener prospektiven Prognosestudie. Werden Deliktrückfälle forensischer Patienten ((section sign) 63 StGB) seltener?

The prediction of dangerousness in mentally disordered offenders -- and here mainly the issue of safety -- is still of primary interest for forensic experts and the public. The effectiveness of treatment and therefore of the whole German forensic system is generally measured by recidivism rates of this clientele. This article presents topical recidivism rates of 255 mentally ill offenders after a minimum time at risk of 2 years (mean 4 years). Data are collected in the Essener prospective multicenter study funded by the German research association which began in 1997 and in which 23 forensic hospitals in Germany took part. Main objective of the study is the determination of valid criteria for predicting recidivism of mentally disordered offenders. Currently the rates for general recidivism are 21.6 % and for severe reoffences 7.5 % which are in comparison to other recent studies relatively low.