Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model of Swallowing Recovery and Enteral Tube Feeding After Ischemic Stroke.

Importance: Predicting the duration of poststroke dysphagia is important to guide therapeutic decisions. Guidelines recommend nasogastric tube (NGT) feeding if swallowing impairment persists for 7 days or longer and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) placement if dysphagia does not recover within 30 days, but, to our knowledge, a systematic prediction method does not exist. Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic model predicting swallowing recovery and the need for enteral tube feeding. Design, Setting, and Participants: We enrolled participants with consecutive admissions for acute ischemic stroke and initially severe dysphagia in a prospective single-center derivation (2011-2014) and a multicenter validation (July 2015-March 2018) cohort study in 5 tertiary stroke referral centers in Switzerland. Exposures: Severely impaired oral intake at admission (Functional Oral Intake Scale score <5). Main Outcomes and Measures: Recovery of oral intake (primary end point, Functional Oral Intake Scale ≥5) or return to prestroke diet (secondary end point) measured 7 (indication for NGT feeding) and 30 (indication for PEG feeding) days after stroke. Results: In total, 279 participants (131 women [47.0%]; median age, 77 years [interquartile range, 67-84 years]) were enrolled (153 [54.8%] in the derivation study; 126 [45.2%] in the validation cohort). Overall, 64% (95% CI, 59-71) participants failed to recover functional oral intake within 7 days and 30% (95% CI, 24-37) within 30 days. Prolonged swallowing recovery was independently associated with poor outcomes after stroke. The final prognostic model, the Predictive Swallowing Score, included 5 variables: age, stroke severity on admission, lesion location, initial risk of aspiration, and initial impairment of oral intake. Predictive Swallowing Score prediction estimates ranged from 5% (score, 0) to 96% (score, 10) for a persistent impairment of oral intake on day 7 and from 2% to 62% on day 30. Model performance in the validation cohort showed a discrimination (C statistic) of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.76-0.91; P < .001) for predicting the recovery of oral intake on day 7 and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.87; P < .001) on day 30, and a discrimination for a return to prestroke diet of 0.94 (day 7; 95% CI, 0.87-1.00; P < .001) and 0.71 (day 30; 95% CI, 0.61-0.82; P < .001). Calibration plots showed high agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: The Predictive Swallowing Score, available as a smartphone application, is an easily applied prognostic instrument that reliably predicts swallowing recovery. It will support decision making for NGT or PEG insertion after ischemic stroke and is a step toward personalized medicine.

Lesion location predicts transient and extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess the association of lesion location and risk of aspiration and to establish predictors of transient versus extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke. METHODS: Atlas-based localization analysis was performed in consecutive patients with MRI-proven first-time acute supratentorial ischemic stroke. Standardized swallowing assessment was carried out within 8±18 hours and 7.8±1.2 days after admission. RESULTS: In a prospective, longitudinal analysis, 34 of 94 patients (36%) were classified as having acute risk of aspiration, which was extended (≥7 days) or transient (<7 days) in 17 cases. There were no between-group differences in age, sex, cause of stroke, risk factors, prestroke disability, lesion side, or the degree of age-related white-matter changes. Correcting for stroke volume and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale with a multiple logistic regression model, significant adjusted odds ratios in favor of acute risk of aspiration were demonstrated for the internal capsule (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; P<0.002) and the insular cortex (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; P<0.003). In a multivariate model of extended versus transient risk of aspiration, combined lesions of the frontal operculum and insular cortex was the only significant independent predictor of poor recovery (adjusted odds ratio, 33.8; P<0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Lesions of the insular cortex and the internal capsule are significantly associated with acute risk of aspiration after stroke. Combined ischemic infarctions of the frontal operculum and the insular cortex are likely to cause extended risk of aspiration in stroke patients, whereas risk of aspiration tends to be transient in subcortical stroke.