RESUMO
The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted unprecedented impacts on travel behaviors because of people's increased health precautions and the presence of various COVID-19 containment measures. However, little research has explored whether and how people changed their travel with respect to their perceived local infection risks across space and time. In this article, we relate elasticity and resilience thinking to the changes in metro travel and perceived infection risks at the station or community level over time. Using empirical data from Hong Kong, we measure a metro station's elasticity as the ratio of changes in its average trip length to the COVID-19 cases' footprints around that station. We regard those footprints as a proxy for people's perceived infection risks when making trips to that station. To explore influencing factors on travel in the ups and downs of perceived infection risks, we classify stations based on their elasticity values and examine the association between stations' elasticities and characteristics of stations and their served communities. The findings show that stations varied in elasticity values across space and different surges of the local pandemic. The elasticity of stations can be predicted by socio-demographics and physical attributes of station areas. Stations serving a larger percentage of population with higher education degrees and certain occupations observed more pronounced trip length decrease for the same level of perceived infection risks. The number of parking spaces and retail facilities significantly explained variations in stations' elasticity. The results provide references on crisis management and resilience improvement amid and post COVID-19.
RESUMO
Abrupt socioeconomic changes have become increasingly commonplace. In face of these, both institutions and individuals must adapt. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, suddenness, scale, and impacts of which are unprecedented as compared to its counterparts in history, we first propose transferable measures and methods that can be used to quantify and geovisualize COVID-19 and subsequent events' impacts on metro riders' travel behaviors. Then we operationalize and implement those measures and methods with empirical data from Hong Kong, a metropolis heavily reliant on transit/metro services. We map out where those impacts were the largest and explores its correlates. We exploit the best publicly available data to assemble probable explanatory variables and to examine quantitatively whether those variables are correlated to the impacts and if so, to what degree. We find that both macro- and meso-level external/internal events following the COVID-19 outbreak significantly influenced of metro riders' behaviors. The numbers of public rental housing residents, public and medical facilities, students' school locations, residents' occupation, and household income significantly predict the impacts. Also, the impacts differ across social groups and locales with different built-environment attributes. This means that to effectively manage those impacts, locale- and group-sensitive interventions are warranted.
