El Niño's role in changing fauna.

Past faunas show how El Niño frequency affects eastern Pacific community structure.

Support for deer herd reduction on offshore Islands of Maine, U.S.A.

Over the past three decades, citizens of Maine in the northeastern United States have experienced increasing blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) abundance and rising incidence of Lyme and other tick-borne diseases. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) overabundance has been considered one cause of the high incidence of tick-borne diseases on offshore islands of New England. Most of Maine's 15 offshore, unbridged island communities have a history of concern about ticks, Lyme disease, and white-tailed deer overabundance, but have been challenged to keep deer numbers down through hunting or culls. This history has led to perennial, often divisive community debates about whether and how to reduce the size of their deer herds. In 2016 we conducted a convenience sample survey of year-round and summer residents of Maine's offshore islands to quantify the level of concern about Lyme disease, and assess the motivations and level of support for deer herd reduction. Among respondents, 84 % agreed Lyme disease was a problem on their island and 61 % supported deer herd reduction. Agreement that Lyme disease was a problem was associated with having acquired tick-borne disease as well as with tick bites without disease. Respondents ranked deer overabundance as a top cause of tick abundance and tick-borne disease and supported deer herd reduction as an approach to reduce the risk of Lyme disease. Other problems associated with deer overabundance (vehicle collisions, damage to landscaping, and damage to forests) also motivated support for deer reduction. Approval of doe permits, an expanded archery season, and sharpshooting as reduction methods was greater than an expanded firearms season. Respondents felt responsibility for tick control fell to the town for the most part, and recognized that multiple factors have contributed to the tick problem in Maine, not just deer.

A Generalized Additive Model Correlating Blacklegged Ticks With White-Tailed Deer Density, Temperature, and Humidity in Maine, USA, 1990-2013.

Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis' range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990-2013. With Maine's wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ~5 deer/km2 (13 deer/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ~2 deer/km2 (~6/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.

Archaeological climate proxies and the complexities of reconstructing Holocene El Niño in coastal Peru.

Archaeological evidence plays a key role in longitudinal studies of humans and climate. Climate proxy data from Peruvian archaeological sites provide a case study through insight into the history of the "flavors" or varieties of El Niño (EN) events after ∼11 ka: eastern Pacific EN, La Niña, coastal EN (COA), and central Pacific or Modoki EN (CP). Archaeological proxies are important to the coastal Peruvian case because more commonly used paleoclimate proxies are unavailable or equivocal. Previously, multiproxy evidence from the Peruvian coast and elsewhere suggested that EN frequency varied over the Holocene: 1) present in the Early Holocene; 2) absent or very low frequency during the Middle Holocene (∼9 to 6 ka); 3) low after ∼6 ka; and 4) rapidly increasing frequency after 3 ka. Despite skepticism about the reliability of archaeological proxies, nonarchaeological proxies seemed to confirm this archaeological EN reconstruction. Although there is consensus that EN frequency varied over this period, some nonarchaeological and archaeological proxies call parts of this reconstruction into question. Here we review Holocene EN frequency reconstructions for the Peruvian coast, point to complexities introduced by apparent contradictions in a range of proxy records, consider the impact of CP and COA phenomena, and assess the merits of archaeological proxies in EN reconstructions. Reconciling Peruvian coastal paleoclimate data is critical for testing models of future EN behavior under climate variability.

Decoupling of Blacklegged Tick Abundance and Lyme Disease Incidence in Southern Maine, USA.

Lyme disease is caused by the bacterial spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt, and Brenner (Spirocheatales: Spirochaetaceae) which is transmitted through the bite of an infected blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae). Maine, USA, is a high Lyme disease incidence state, with rising incidence of Lyme disease and other tick-borne illnesses associated with increasing I. scapularis abundance and northward range expansion. Members of the public submitted ticks to a tick identification program (1990-2013). From these passive surveillance data, we characterized temporal trends in I. scapularis submission rate (an index of abundance), comparing Maine's northern tier (seven counties) versus southern tier (nine counties). In the northern tier, the I. scapularis submission rate increased throughout the duration of the time series, suggesting I. scapularis was emergent but not established. By contrast, in the southern tier, submission rate increased initially but leveled off after 10-14 yr, suggesting I. scapularis was established by the mid-2000s. Active (field) surveillance data from a site in the southern tier-bird tick burdens and questing adult tick collections-corroborated this leveling pattern. Lyme disease incidence and I. scapularis submission rate were temporally correlated in the northern but not southern tier. This suggested a decoupling of reported disease incidence and entomological risk.