The cost-effectiveness of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men and transgender women at high risk of HIV infection in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) in Brazil experience high rates of HIV infection. We examined the clinical and economic outcomes of implementing a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in these populations. METHODS: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International model of HIV prevention and treatment to evaluate two strategies: the current standard of care (SOC) in Brazil, including universal ART access (No PrEP strategy); and the current SOC plus daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP (PrEP strategy) until age 50. Mean age (31 years, SD 8.4 years), age-stratified annual HIV incidence (age ≤ 40 years: 4.3/100 PY; age > 40 years: 1.0/100 PY), PrEP effectiveness (43% HIV incidence reduction) and PrEP drug costs ($23/month) were from Brazil-based sources. The analysis focused on direct medical costs of HIV care. We measured the comparative value of PrEP in 2015 United States dollars (USD) per year of life saved (YLS). Willingness-to-pay threshold was based on Brazil's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; 2015: $8540 USD). RESULTS: Lifetime HIV infection risk among high-risk MSM and TGW was 50.5% with No PrEP and decreased to 40.1% with PrEP. PrEP increased per-person undiscounted (discounted) life expectancy from 36.8 (20.7) years to 41.0 (22.4) years and lifetime discounted HIV-related medical costs from $4100 to $8420, which led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2530/YLS. PrEP remained cost-effective (<1x GDP) under plausible variation in key parameters, including PrEP effectiveness and cost, initial cohort age and HIV testing frequency on/off PrEP. CONCLUSION: Daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP among MSM and TGW at high risk of HIV infection in Brazil would increase life expectancy and be highly cost-effective.

Survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model-based analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV-positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme. METHODS: We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era-specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014-censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era. RESULTS: In total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life-years, 16% (or 1.5 million life-years) has been realized as of December 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits.