A heteroskedastic model of Park Grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades.

UK grasslands perform important environmental and economic functions, but their future productivity under climate change is uncertain. Spring hay yields from 1902 to 2016 at one site (the Park Grass Long Term Experiment) in southern England under four different fertilizer regimes were modelled in response to weather (seasonal temperature and rainfall). The modelling approach applied comprised: (1) a Bayesian model comparison to model parametrically the heteroskedasticity in a gamma likelihood function; (2) a Bayesian varying intercept multiple regression model with an autoregressive lag one process (to incorporate the effect of productivity in the previous year) of the response of hay yield to weather from 1902 to 2016. The model confirmed that warmer and drier years, specifically, autumn, winter and spring, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries reduced yield. The model was applied to forecast future spring hay yields at Park Grass under different climate change scenarios (HadGEM2 and GISS RCP 4.5 and 8.5). This application indicated that yields are forecast to decline further between 2020 and 2080, by as much as 48-50%. These projections are specific to Park Grass, but implied a severe reduction in grassland productivity in southern England with climate change during the twenty-first century.

The impact of weather and increased atmospheric CO2 from 1892 to 2016 on simulated yields of UK wheat.

Climate change effects on UK winter wheat grain yield are complex: warmer temperature, negative; greater carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, positive; but other environmental variables and their timing also affect yield. In the absence of long-term experiments where temperature and CO2 concentration were manipulated separately, we applied the crop simulation model Sirius with long-term daily meteorological data (1892-2016) for Rothamsted, Hertfordshire, UK (2007-2016 mean growing season temperature 1.03°C warmer than 1892-1991), and CO2 concentration over this period, to investigate the separate effects of historic CO2 and weather on simulated grain yield in three wheat cultivars of the modern era. We show a slight decline in simulated yield over the period 1892-2016 from the effect of weather (daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours) at fixed CO2 (294.50 ppm, 1892 reference value), but a maximum 9.4% increase when accounting for increasing atmospheric CO2 (from 294.50 to 404.21 ppm), differing slightly among cultivars. Notwithstanding considerable inter-annual variation, the slight yield decline at 294.50 ppm CO2 over this 125-year period from the historic weather simulations for Rothamsted agrees with the expected decline from temperature increase alone, but the positive yield trend with actual CO2 values does not match the recent stagnation in UK wheat yield.

Assessing the evolution of wheat grain traits during the last 166 years using archived samples.

The current study focuses on yield and nutritional quality changes of wheat grain over the last 166 years. It is based on wheat grain quality analyses carried out on samples collected between 1850 and 2016. Samples were obtained from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment (UK) and from herbaria from 16 different countries around the world. Our study showed that, together with an increase in carbohydrate content, an impoverishment of mineral composition and protein content occurred. The imbalance in carbohydrate/protein content was specially marked after the 1960's, coinciding with strong increases in ambient [CO2] and temperature and the introduction of progressively shorter straw varieties. The implications of altered crop physiology are discussed.

Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968-2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term Experiments.

The effect of weather on inter-annual variation in the crop yield response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer for winter wheat (Triticum aestivvum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was investigated using yield data from the Broadbalk Wheat and Hoosfield Spring Barley long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research. Grain yields of crops from 1968 to 2016 were modelled as a function of N rates using a linear-plus-exponential (LEXP) function. The extent to which inter-annual variation in the parameters of these responses was explained by variations in weather (monthly summarized temperatures and rainfall), and by changes in the cultivar grown, was assessed. The inter-annual variability in rainfall and underlying temperature influenced the crop N response and hence grain yields in both crops. Asymptotic yields in wheat were particularly sensitive to mean temperature in November, April and May, and to total rainfall in October, February and June. In spring barley asymptotic yields were sensitive to mean temperature in February and June, and to total rainfall in April to July inclusive and September. The method presented here explores the separation of agronomic and environmental (weather) influences on crop yield over time. Fitting N response curves across multiple treatments can support an informative analysis of the influence of weather variation on the yield variability. Whilst there are issues of the confounding and collinearity of explanatory variables within such models, and that other factors also influence yields over time, our study confirms the considerable impact of weather variables at certain times of the year. This emphasizes the importance of including weather temporal variation when evaluating the impacts of climate change on crops.

The electronic Rothamsted Archive (e-RA), an online resource for data from the Rothamsted long-term experiments.

The electronic Rothamsted Archive, e-RA (www.era.rothamsted.ac.uk) provides a permanent managed database to both securely store and disseminate data from Rothamsted Research's long-term field experiments (since 1843) and meteorological stations (since 1853). Both historical and contemporary data are made available via this online database which provides the scientific community with access to a unique continuous record of agricultural experiments and weather measured since the mid-19th century. Qualitative information, such as treatment and management practices, plans and soil information, accompanies the data and are made available on the e-RA website. e-RA was released externally to the wider scientific community in 2013 and this paper describes its development, content, curation and the access process for data users. Case studies illustrate the diverse applications of the data, including its original intended purposes and recent unforeseen applications. Usage monitoring demonstrates the data are of increasing interest. Future developments, including adopting FAIR data principles, are proposed as the resource is increasingly recognised as a unique archive of data relevant to sustainable agriculture, agroecology and the environment.

Last-Century Increases in Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency of Grassland Communities Have Occurred over a Wide Range of Vegetation Composition, Nutrient Inputs, and Soil pH.

Last-century climate change has led to variable increases of the intrinsic water-use efficiency (Wi; the ratio of net CO2 assimilation to stomatal conductance for water vapor) of trees and C3 grassland ecosystems, but the causes of the variability are not well understood. Here, we address putative drivers underlying variable Wi responses in a wide range of grassland communities. Wi was estimated from carbon isotope discrimination in archived herbage samples from 16 contrasting fertilizer treatments in the Park Grass Experiment, Rothamsted, England, for the 1915 to 1929 and 1995 to 2009 periods. Changes in Wi were analyzed in relation to nitrogen input, soil pH, species richness, and functional group composition. Treatments included liming as well as phosphorus and potassium additions with or without ammonium or nitrate fertilizer applications at three levels. Wi increased between 11% and 25% (P < 0.001) in the different treatments between the two periods. None of the fertilizers had a direct effect on the change of Wi (ΔWi). However, soil pH (P < 0.05), species richness (P < 0.01), and percentage grass content (P < 0.01) were significantly related to ΔWi. Grass-dominated, species-poor plots on acidic soils showed the largest ΔWi (+14.7 µmol mol(-1)). The ΔWi response of these acidic plots was probably related to drought effects resulting from aluminum toxicity on root growth. Our results from the Park Grass Experiment show that Wi in grassland communities consistently increased over a wide range of nutrient inputs, soil pH, and plant community compositions during the last century.

Historical arsenic contamination of soil due to long-term phosphate fertiliser applications.

Archived samples from the Park Grass Experiment, established in 1856, were analysed to determine the impacts of long-term phosphate fertiliser applications on arsenic concentrations in soil and herbage. In plots receiving 35 kg P ha(-1) annually (+P), topsoil As concentrations almost doubled from an initial value of ∼10 mg kg(-1) during 1888-1947 and remained stable thereafter. The phosphate fertilisers used before 1948 contained 401-1575 mg As kg(-1), compared to 1.6-20.3 mg As kg(-1) in the later samples. Herbage samples from the +P plots collected during 1888-1947 contained significantly more As than those from the -P plots, but later samples did not differ significantly. Mass-balance calculations show that the increase in soil As can be explained by the As input from P fertiliser applications before 1948. The results demonstrate that the P fertilisers used on the Park Grass Experiment before 1948 caused substantial As contamination of the soil.