RESUMO
OBJETIVO: Comparar os índices de gravidade gerais e os específicos de pancreatite aguda grave na avaliação do prognóstico numa unidade de terapia intensiva polivalente. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 108 pacientes com diagnóstico de saída de pancreatite aguda grave, no período de 1º de julho de 1991 a 31 de março de 2010. Foram colhidos dados demográficos, clínicos e calculados os seguintes índices de gravidade: Ranson, Osborn, Blamey e Imrie, Balthasar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II e SOFA. O poder discriminativo dos diferentes índices foi avaliado com base na área sob a curva ROC (aROC), em relação à mortalidade, na unidade de terapia intensiva e no hospital. RESULTADOS: Não existiram diferenças significativas entre os dados demográficos basais dos doentes sobreviventes e dos falecidos. A mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva foi de 27%, com uma mortalidade hospitalar de 39%. Os índices de gravidade com maior capacidade discriminativa para a mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva e hospitalar foram o POP 0, POP 24, o SOFA (na admissão, 24, 48 horas e máximo), o SAPS II e o APACHE II. CONCLUSÃO: O índice POP mostrou ser superior a todos os outros índices (aROC>0,8), quer às 24 horas (como foi originalmente descrito), quer à admissão. Os índices de disfunção fisiológica gerais apresentaram também uma capacidade discriminativa razoável (aROC na ordem dos 0,75-0,8) por oposição aos outros índices específicos de pancreatite, cujo valor discriminativo foi francamente mais baixo.
OBJECTIVE: This study compared the general and specific severity indices to assess the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis at a polyvalent intensive care unit. METHODS: This retrospective study included 108 patients who were diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis from July 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Their demographic and clinical data were collected, and the following severity indices were calculated: Ranson, Osborne, Blamey and Imrie, Balthazar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA. The discriminative power of these indices with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The demographic data of the surviving and deceased patients did not significantly differ at baseline. The mortality rates were 27% and 39% at the intensive care unit and hospital, respectively. The severity indices that exhibited the greatest discriminative power with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital were the POP 0, POP 24, SOFA (at admission, 24 hours, 48 hours, and discharge), SAPS II, and APACHE II. CONCLUSION: The POP performed better than the other indices (aROC>0.8) at admission and 24 hours later (as originally described). The general physiological dysfunction indices also exhibited reasonable discriminative power (aROC=0.75-0.8), which was unlike the remaining pancreatitis specific indices, whose discriminative power was lower.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study compared the general and specific severity indices to assess the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis at a polyvalent intensive care unit. METHODS: This retrospective study included 108 patients who were diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis from July 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Their demographic and clinical data were collected, and the following severity indices were calculated: Ranson, Osborne, Blamey and Imrie, Balthazar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA. The discriminative power of these indices with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The demographic data of the surviving and deceased patients did not significantly differ at baseline. The mortality rates were 27% and 39% at the intensive care unit and hospital, respectively. The severity indices that exhibited the greatest discriminative power with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital were the POP 0, POP 24, SOFA (at admission, 24 hours, 48 hours, and discharge), SAPS II, and APACHE II. CONCLUSION: The POP performed better than the other indices (aROC>0.8) at admission and 24 hours later (as originally described). The general physiological dysfunction indices also exhibited reasonable discriminative power (aROC=0.75-0.8), which was unlike the remaining pancreatitis specific indices, whose discriminative power was lower.