Identifying weak signals to prepare for uncertainty in the energy sector.

This study aims to prepare the energy sector for uncertainty using a foresight tool known as weak signals. Weak signals (subtle signs of emerging issues with significant impact potential) are often overlooked during strategic planning due to their inherent predictive uncertainty. However, the value does not lie in precise forecasting but in broadening the consideration of future possibilities. By proactively monitoring and addressing these otherwise neglected developments, stakeholders can gain early awareness of threats and opportunities and enhance their resilience, adaptability, and innovation. A panel of technology experts identified eight weak signals in this study: 1) growing mistrust and local grid security measures, 2) consumer reactions to overly prescriptive policies, 3) long-term forecasting errors for thin-margin projects, 4) emergence of variable power industries, and 5) establishment of intercontinental transmission precedence; including three potential 'wild cards' requiring proactive mitigation: 6) escalating electrical generation dependence on continued imports, 7) a new threat surpassing climate change, and 8) mass deployment of low-emissions technology triggering a runaway loss of social license. Political factors were the predominant source of uncertainty, as decisions can suddenly transform the energy landscape. Economic, technological, and social factors followed closely behind, generally through the emergence of new industries and behavioural responses. While environmental and legal factors were less frequent, stakeholders should still adopt a holistic approach, as the signals were found to be highly interconnected. Organisations should also assess their local context when applying these findings and continuously update and respond to their own list of weak signals.

Designing optimal integrated electricity supply configurations for renewable hydrogen generation in Australia.

The high variability and intermittency of wind and solar farms raise questions of how to operate electrolyzers reliably, economically, and sustainably using predominantly or exclusively variable renewables. To address these questions, we develop a comprehensive cost framework that extends to include factors such as performance degradation, efficiency, financing rates, and indirect costs to assess the economics of 10 MW scale alkaline and proton-exchange membrane electrolyzers to generate hydrogen. Our scenario analysis explores a range of operational configurations, considering (i) current and projected wholesale electricity market data from the Australian National Electricity Market, (ii) existing solar/wind farm generation curves, and (iii) electrolyzer capital costs/performance to determine costs of H2 production in the near (2020-2040) and long term (2030-2050). Furthermore, we analyze dedicated off-grid integrated electrolyzer plants as an alternate operating scenario, suggesting oversizing renewable nameplate capacity with respect to the electrolyzer to enhance operational capacity factors and achieving more economical electrolyzer operation.