Comparing predictors of conversion and decline in mild cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVE: A variety of measurements have been individually linked to decline in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but the identification of optimal markers for predicting disease progression remains unresolved. The goal of this study was to evaluate the prognostic ability of genetic, CSF, neuroimaging, and cognitive measurements obtained in the same participants. METHODS: APOE epsilon4 allele frequency, CSF proteins (Abeta(1-42), total tau, hyperphosphorylated tau [p-tau(181p)]), glucose metabolism (FDG-PET), hippocampal volume, and episodic memory performance were evaluated at baseline in patients with amnestic MCI (n = 85), using data from a large multisite study (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative). Patients were classified as normal or abnormal on each predictor variable based on externally derived cutoffs, and then variables were evaluated as predictors of subsequent conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) and cognitive decline (Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale) during a variable follow-up period (1.9 +/- 0.4 years). RESULTS: Patients with MCI converted to AD at an annual rate of 17.2%. Subjects with MCI who had abnormal results on both FDG-PET and episodic memory were 11.7 times more likely to convert to AD than subjects who had normal results on both measures (p

Episodic memory loss is related to hippocampal-mediated beta-amyloid deposition in elderly subjects.

Although beta-amyloid (Abeta) plaques are a primary diagnostic criterion for Alzheimer's disease, this pathology is commonly observed in the brains of non-demented older individuals. To explore the importance of this pathology in the absence of dementia, we compared levels of amyloid deposition (via 'Pittsburgh Compound-B' (PIB) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging) to hippocampus volume (HV) and episodic memory (EM) in three groups: (i) normal controls (NC) from the Berkeley Aging Cohort (BAC NC, n = 20); (ii) normal controls (NC) from the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI NC, n = 17); and (iii) PIB+ mild cognitive impairment subjects from the ADNI (ADNI PIB+ MCI, n = 39). Age, gender and education were controlled for in each statistical model, and HV was adjusted for intracranial volume (aHV). In BAC NC, elevated PIB uptake was significantly associated with smaller aHV (P = 0.0016) and worse EM (P = 0.0086). Within ADNI NC, elevated PIB uptake was significantly associated with smaller aHV (P = 0.047) but not EM (P = 0.60); within ADNI PIB+ MCI, elevated PIB uptake was significantly associated with both smaller aHV (P = 0.00070) and worse EM (P = 0.046). To further understand these relationships, a recursive regression procedure was conducted within all ADNI NC and PIB+ MCI subjects (n = 56) to test the hypothesis that HV mediates the relationship between Abeta and EM. Significant correlations were found between PIB index and EM (P = 0.0044), PIB index and aHV (P < 0.0001), as well as between aHV and EM (P < 0.0001). When both aHV and PIB were included in the same model to predict EM, aHV remained significant (P = 0.0015) whereas PIB index was no longer significantly associated with EM (P = 0.50). These results are consistent with a model in which Abeta deposition, hippocampal atrophy, and EM occur sequentially in elderly subjects, with Abeta deposition as the primary event in this cascade. This pattern suggests that declining EM in older individuals may be caused by Abeta-induced hippocampus atrophy.