Prognostic value of the Surprise Question for one-year mortality in older patients: a prospective multicenter study in acute geriatric and cardiology units.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prognostic value of the Surprise Question (SQ) in older persons. METHODS: A multicenter prospective study, including patients aged 75 years or older admitted to acute geriatric (AGU) or cardiology unit (CU). The SQ was answered by the treating physician. Patients or relatives were contacted after 1 year to determine 1-year survival. Logistic regression was used to explore parameters associated with SQ. Summary ROC curves were constructed to obtain the pooled values of sensitivity and specificity based on a bivariate model. RESULTS: The SQ was positive (death within 1 year is no surprise) in 34.7% AGU and 33.3% CU patients (p = 0.773). Parameters associated with a positive SQ were more severe comorbidity, worse functionality, significant weight loss, refractory symptoms and the request for palliative care by patient or family. One-year mortality was, respectively, 24.9% and 20.2% for patients hospitalized on AGU and CU (p = 0.319). There was no difference in sensitivity or specificity, respectively, 64% and 77% (AUC 0.635) for AGU versus 63% and 76% (AUC 0.758) for CU (p = 0.870). A positive SQ is associated with a significant shorter time until death (HR 5.425 (95% CI 3.332-8.834), p < 0.001) independently from the ward. CONCLUSION: The Surprise Question is moderately accurate to predict 1-year mortality in older persons hospitalized on acute geriatric and cardiologic units.

Prognostic value of bioelectrical impedance analysis for assessment of fluid overload in ICU patients: a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: The non-invasive analysis of body fluid composition with bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) provides additional information allowing for more persona-lised therapy to improve outcomes. The aim of this study is to assess the prognostic value of fluid overload (FO) in the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective, observational analysis of 101 ICU patients. Whole-body BIA measurements were performed, and FO was defined as a 5% increase in volume excess from baseline body weight. RESULTS: Baseline demographic data, including severity scores, were similar in both the fluid overload-positive (FO+, n = 49) patients and in patients without fluid overload (FO-, n = 52). Patients with FO+ had significantly higher cumulative fluid balance during their ICU stay compared to those without FO (8.8 ± 7.0 vs. 5.5 ± 5.4 litres; P = 0.009), VE (9.9 ± 6.5 vs. 1.5 ± 1.5 litres; P < 0.001), total body water (63.0 ± 9.5 vs. 52.8 ± 8.1%; P < 0.001), and extracellular water (27.0 ± 7.3 vs. 19.6 ± 3.7 litres; P < 0.001). The presence of 5%, 7.5%, and 10% fluid overload was directly associated with increased ICU mortality rates. The percentage fluid overload (P = 0.039) was an independent predictor for hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A higher mortality rate in ICU-patients with FO was observed. FO is an independent prognostic factor because neither APACHE-II, SOFA, nor SAPS-II significantly differed on admission between survivors and non-survivors. Further research is needed to confirm these data prospectively and to evaluate whether BIA-guided deresuscitation in the subacute phase will improve mortality rates.