The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil.

The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.

Genetic structure of wild rice Oryza glumaepatula populations in three Brazilian biomes using microsatellite markers.

The existence of Oryza glumaepatula is threatened by devastation and, thus, the implementation of conservation strategies is extremely relevant. This study aimed to characterize the genetic variability and estimate population parameters of 30 O. glumaepatula populations from three Brazilian biomes using 10 microsatellite markers. The levels of allelic variability for the SSR loci presented a mean of 10.3 alleles per locus and a value of 0.10 for the average allelic frequency value. The expected total heterozygosity (H(e)) ranged from 0.63 to 0.86. For the 30 populations tested, the mean observed (H(o)) and expected heterozygosities (H(e)) were 0.03 and 0.11 within population, respectively, indicating an excess of homozygotes resulting from the preferentially self-pollinating reproduction habit. The estimated fixation index ( (IS) ) was 0.79 that differed significantly from zero, indicating high inbreeding within each O. glumaepatula population. The total inbreeding of the species ((IT) ) was 0.98 and the genetic diversity indexes among populations, (ST) and (ST), were 0.85 and 0.90, respectively, indicating high genetic variability among them. Thus, especially for populations located in regions threatened with devastation, it is urgent that in situ preservation conditions should be created or that collections be made for ex situ preservation to prevent loss of the species genetic variability.