High five-year mortality rates of ischemic stroke subtypes: A prospective cohort study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Studies regarding long-term outcomes of ischemic stroke subtypes are scarce in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to measure the five-year prognosis of ischemic stroke subtypes in Joinville, Brazil. METHODS: All first-ever ischemic strokes that occurred in Joinville in 2010 were followed-up for five years. RESULTS: We included 334 ischemic stroke patients. Over five years, 156 died, 51 had a recurrent stroke, and 128 were free of recurrent stroke. The overall cumulative risk of death was 17% (95% CI, 13% to 22%) at 30 days and 47% (95% CI, 41% to 52%) after five years. Undetermined with incomplete investigation ischemic stroke had a significantly worse survival probability (ß -4.91; 95% CI, -6.31 to -3.50; p < 0.001), followed by cardioembolic ischemic stroke (ß -3.07; 95% CI, -4.32 to -1.83; p < 0.001) and large artery disease ischemic stroke (ß -1.95; 95% CI, -3.30 to -0.60; p = 0.005). The survival probability of undetermined with negative investigation or cryptogenic ischemic stroke did not differ significantly from small artery disease ischemic stroke (ß -1.022; 95% CI, -3.37 to -1.43; p = 0.414). The five-year mortality for small artery disease ischemic stroke was 30% (95% CI, 22% to 39%) and 47% (95% CI, 35% to 60%) for large artery ischemic stroke. The risk of stroke recurrence was 2% in the first year and 5% in the second year. The proportion of disability among survivors in the first month ranged from 8% (95% CI, 3-15) for small artery disease ischemic stroke to 40% (95% CI, 30-52) for cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cardioembolic and undetermined with incomplete investigation ischemic stroke sub-types have a poor long-term prognosis. An alarming finding was that our patients with both small and large artery ischemic stroke had higher five-year mortality rates compared with subjects from high-income countries.

Incidence and functional outcome of atrial fibrillation and non-atrial fibrillation- related cardioembolic stroke in Joinville, Brazil: a population-based study.

Among ischemic strokes, cardioembolic (CE) stroke has the worst outcome. We measured the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and non-AF related CE strokes, previous anticoagulant use, and the 90-day functional outcome. Using multiple overlapping sources, we included all CE strokes that occurred in 2015 in Joinville, Brazil. Of the 374 ischemic strokes, 23% (84) were CE. The CE age-adjusted incidence, per 1,000 person-years, was 0.14 (0.11-0.17). Of the 26 patients with known prior AF, 73% (19) were not anticoagulated, 77% (20) had a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥ 3 and 81% (21) had a HAS-BLED score < 3. After three months, approximately one third of those 26 patients died or became disabled. The incidence of CE stroke in our sample was lower than in other population-based studies. The opportunity for anticoagulation was missed in one third of cases.

Incidence and functional outcome of atrial fibrillation and non-atrial fibrillation- related cardioembolic stroke in Joinville, Brazil: a population-based study / Incidência e desfecho funcional de AVC cardioembólico com e sem fibrilação atrial em Joinville, Brazil: estudo de base populacional

ABSTRACT Among ischemic strokes, cardioembolic (CE) stroke has the worst outcome. We measured the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and non-AF related CE strokes, previous anticoagulant use, and the 90-day functional outcome. Using multiple overlapping sources, we included all CE strokes that occurred in 2015 in Joinville, Brazil. Of the 374 ischemic strokes, 23% (84) were CE. The CE age-adjusted incidence, per 1,000 person-years, was 0.14 (0.11–0.17). Of the 26 patients with known prior AF, 73% (19) were not anticoagulated, 77% (20) had a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥ 3 and 81% (21) had a HAS-BLED score < 3. After three months, approximately one third of those 26 patients died or became disabled. The incidence of CE stroke in our sample was lower than in other population-based studies. The opportunity for anticoagulation was missed in one third of cases.

RESUMO Entre todos os subtipos de AVC isquêmico, os eventos cardioembólicos (CE) apresentam os piores prognósticos. Determinamos a incidência de AVC isquêmico CE, associada ou não à fibrilação atrial (FA), o uso prévio de anticoagulantes e os desfechos funcionais em Joinville, Brasil. Utilizando múltiplas e sobrepostas fontes de informação, registramos todos os primeiros eventos CE ocorridos em 2015. Entre 374 eventos isquêmicos, 23% (84) foram CE. A incidência ajustada, para qualquer fonte cardioembólica, foi 0.14 (0.11–0.17) por 1000 pessoas-ano. Entre 26 pacientes com FA previamente conhecida, 73% (19) não estavam anticoagulados, 77% (20) tinham ≥ 3 pontos na escala CHA2DS2VASc e 81 % (21) < 3 pontos na escala HAS-BLED. Após 3 meses, um terço destes 26 pacientes morreram ou ficaram dependentes. A incidência de AVC I CE em Joinville é menor do que em outros estudos de base populacional. Um terço dos casos de AVC I CE com FA previamente conhecida perderam a oportunidade de anticoagulação.