Can pain flares in knee osteoarthritis be predicted?

Objectives: This study examined whether risk factors for knee osteoarthritis (KOA) pain such as age, gender, body mass index (BMI), baseline pain, and other putative risk factors for knee osteoarthritis pain flares (KOAF) (e.g. knee buckling, injury, mood/stress/social support scores, and footwear) could predict KOAF.Method: People with KOA and previous history of KOAF were selected from a 3 month web-based longitudinal study. KOAF was defined as an increase of ≥ 2 points on a numeric rating scale (compared with background pain) which resolved within 20 days. Predictors assessed at baseline were gender, age, duration of KOA, BMI, pain, knee injury (7 days before), knee buckling (2 days before), Lubben Social Support, Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain score (ICOAP), Positive/Negative Affect Score, and footwear stability/heel height. Outcome was occurrence of any KOAF during the ensuing 30 days. The combined ability of the above variables to predict occurrence of any KOAF was evaluated by multiple logistic regression with a 10-fold cross-validation method to build and internally validate the model. Variables that assessed similar domains were eliminated using receiver operating characteristics curve assessment for best fit.Results: Complete data were available for 313 people (66.6% female, mean ± sd age 62.3 ± 8.2 years, BMI 29.7 ± 6.5 kg/m2). Increasing age, years of osteoarthritis, BMI, background/worst levels of pain, knee injury, knee buckling, ICOAP, and footwear category/heel height significantly predicted the occurrence of KOAF during the following 30 days, with an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.67-0.80).Conclusion: A combination of risk factors assessed at baseline, including exposures with potential to vary, successfully predicts the KOAF in the ensuing 30 days.

The influence of weather on the risk of pain exacerbation in patients with knee osteoarthritis - a case-crossover study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the risk of knee pain exacerbation associated with temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and precipitation in persons with knee osteoarthritis. METHOD: A web-based case-crossover study was conducted. Participants with a diagnosis of symptomatic, radiographic knee osteoarthritis were measured at baseline and followed for 3 months. Participants were instructed to log on to the study website if they perceived experiencing knee pain exacerbation (hazard period). Pain exacerbation was defined as an increase of ≥2 on a 0-10 numeric rating scale (NRS) from the participant's mildest pain reported at baseline. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted to anchor the corresponding hazard date to four control periods within a particular 35-day interval. Data on maximum and minimum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), barometric pressure (hPa) and precipitation (mm) were obtained for the hazard and control periods from the publicly available meteorological database of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The associations were assessed using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 345 participants recruited, 171 participants (women: 64%, mean age: 62 years, mean BMI: 30.2 kg/m2) experienced at least one episode of pain exacerbation, yielding 1,425 observations included in the analyses. There was no apparent association between temperature, relative humidity, air pressure or precipitation and risk of knee pain exacerbation. CONCLUSION: Despite anecdotal reports from patients, change in weather factors does not appear to influence the risk of pain exacerbation in persons with knee osteoarthritis. Additional studies should quantify the association of weather and risk of pain exacerbation in regions with more extreme weather conditions.

The effect of anterior cruciate ligament injury on bone curvature: exploratory analysis in the KANON trial.

OBJECTIVE: Investigate the 5-year longitudinal changes in bone curvature after acute anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, and identify predictors of such changes. METHODS: In the KANON-trial (ISRCTN 84752559), 111/121 young active adults with an acute ACL tear to a previously un-injured knee had serial 1.5 T MR images from baseline (within 5 weeks from injury) to 5 years after injury. Of these, 86 had ACL reconstruction (ACLR) performed early or delayed, 25 were treated with rehabilitation alone. Measures of articulating bone curvature were obtained from computer-assisted segmentation of MR images. Curvature (mm(-1)) was determined for femur, tibia, medial/lateral femur, trochlea, medial/lateral tibia. Age, sex, treatment, BMI, meniscal injury, osteochondral fracture on baseline MR images were tested for association. RESULTS: Over 5 years, curvature decreased in each region (P < 0.001) suggesting flattening of convex shapes and increased concavity of concave shapes. A higher BMI was associated with flattening of the femur (P = 0.03), trochlea (P = 0.007) and increasing concavity of the lateral tibia (LT) (P = 0.011). ACLR, compared to rehabilitation alone, was associated with flatter curvature in the femur (P < 0.001), medial femoral condyle (P = 0.006) and trochlea (P = 0.003). Any meniscal injury at baseline was associated with a more flattened curvature in the femur (P = 0.038), trochlea (P = 0.039), lateral femoral condyle (P = 0.034) and increasing concavity of the LT (P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: ACL injury is associated with significant changes in articulating bone curvature over a 5 year period. Higher BMI, baseline meniscal injury and undergoing ACL reconstruction (as distinct from undergoing rehabilitation alone) are all associated with flattening of the articulating bone.

Effect of antiepileptic medication on bone mineral measures.

OBJECTIVE: Long-term antiepileptic drug (AED) use has been associated with bone disease, but many previous studies have been limited by inadequate control subjects. We used a cotwin affected sib-pair model to investigate this issue. METHODS: The authors studied 31 female twin (15 monozygous and 16 dizygous) and four sibling pairs (< 3 years age difference) aged 21 to 75 years, in which one member had > 12 months of AED treatment. Areal bone mineral density (ABMD, g/cm2) was measured at the lumbar spine (LS), total hip (TH), femoral neck (FN), and total forearm (FA). Three primary a priori defined subgroups were analyzed: a) use for > 2 years, b) use of enzyme-inducing AEDs, or c) age older than 40 years. RESULTS: For all pairs (n = 35), there were no significant within-pair differences in any ABMD measure. However, in Subgroup a (n = 27), there was a within-pair difference at the FA (0.513 vs 0.534, -3.9%, p = 0.016). In Subgroup b (n = 29), there was also a within-pair difference at the FA for AED user vs nonuser (0.508 vs 0.529, -3.8%, p = 0.010). In Subgroup c (n = 15), there were within-pair differences at the FA (0.492 vs 0.524, -6.1%, p = 0.017) and the LS (0.884 vs 0.980, -9.8%, p = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: Patients using AEDs for > 2 years, in particular those taking enzyme-inducing AEDs and those older than 40 years, have significantly lower bone mineral density at clinically relevant fracture risk sites.