RESUMO
The evaluation of natural ventilation potential for effective sustainable options and innovative green building design strategies is of great interest to architects, researchers and governments. From a retrospective review, we found that the potential evaluation of natural ventilation (NV) cooling effectiveness in the same category based on similar meteorological uncertainty, research objectives and objects showed significant differences. Uncertainties added and uncertainty propagation (both model form uncertainties and parameter uncertainties) could result in large discrepancies between simulation outcomes and real scenarios, especially in the design performance modeling (DPM) phase. In this conceptual design stage, a few parameters are available and therefore decisive. It is necessary to review and identify the key performance indicators and explore the extent to which deviations are caused by inconsistencies or biases in model information. As a basis for more concrete research, we propose statistical tests based on quantitative evaluations to explore the rule of natural ventilation potential volatility and identify whether there is a significant potential improvement resulting from the critical parameter enhancement with the optimal relationship. The showcase is applied in China, where there has been a significant amount of criticism regarding the current building climate zoning due to the perceived coarseness of the system and where there has been an active exploration into the possibility of redefining building climate zoning with a view toward improving its accuracy and effectiveness.