Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty for species invasion.

Management of invasive species depends on developing prevention and control strategies through comprehensive risk assessment frameworks that need a thorough analysis of exposure to invasive species. However, accurate exposure analysis of invasive species can be a daunting task because of the inherent uncertainty in invasion processes. Risk assessment of invasive species under uncertainty requires potential integration of expert judgment with empirical information, which often can be incomplete, imprecise, and fragmentary. The representation of knowledge in classical risk models depends on the formulation of a precise probabilistic value or well-defined joint distribution of unknown parameters. However, expert knowledge and judgments are often represented in value-laden terms or preference-ordered criteria. We offer a novel approach to risk assessment by using a dominance-based rough set approach to account for preference order in the domains of attributes in the set of risk classes. The model is illustrated with an example showing how a knowledge-centric risk model can be integrated with the dominance-based principle of rough set to derive minimal covering "if ... , then...," decision rules to reason over a set of possible invasion scenarios. The inconsistency and ambiguity in the data set is modeled using the rough set concept of boundary region adjoining lower and upper approximation of risk classes. Finally, we present an extension of rough set to evidence a theoretic interpretation of risk measures of invasive species in a spatial context. In this approach, the multispecies interactions in an invasion risk are approximated with imprecise probability measures through a combination of spatial neighborhood information of risk estimation in terms of belief and plausibility.

Phenotypic plasticity in vegetative and reproductive traits in an invasive weed, Lythrum salicaria (Lythraceae), in response to soil moisture.

In colonizing species, high phenotypic plasticity can contribute to survival and propagation in heterogenous adventive environments, and it has been suggested as a predictor of invasiveness. Observation of natural populations of an invasive species, Lythrum salicaria salicaria, indicated extensive variation in its growth and reproductive traits. Phenotypic plasticity of different life history traits of L. salicaria was investigated using vegetative clones of each of 12 genotypes from one population in Ontario, Canada. We chose soil moisture as the treatment factor because of its importance in wetland species and raised all 12 genotypes in each of four soil moisture treatments. We examined an array of vegetative and reproductive traits, including root and shoot mass, shoot and inflorescence length, total seed set, floral mass, and morphometric variables. All observed vegetative as well as reproductive traits demonstrated significant phenotypic plasticity in response to soil moisture treatment. Even the stigma-anther separation involved significant genotype by environment interactions, suggesting that soil moisture may modify the relative positions of anthers and stigma. Compared to vegetative traits, most reproductive traits demonstrated crossing reaction norms, implying that the average differences in those traits among genotypes vary with the environment maintaining the genetic variation in a population.

Effects of heavy metals on population growth and metallothionein gene expression in the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, from Calcutta, India.

Major water bodies in and around the city of Calcutta (India) receive heavy metal contaminated effluents from industries, households, and vehicular traffic through sewage or drainage. We quantified concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Cd from three water bodies at Kalighat, Tangra, and VIP Road, respectively. The concentrations of these heavy metals were significantly greater in the summer than in monsoon when heavy downpours resulted in reduced metal concentrations. Concentrations of metals in the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus also reflected such seasonal fluctuations. Hatchability and survivorship of C. quinquefasciatus significantly differed among the sites and were reduced significantly from the control. Exposure to heavy metals also induced MT-gene expression in C. quinquefasciatus, likely helping them to survive in the water bodies stressed with heavy metals. MT-gene activity demonstrated significant variation among sites and seasons with the highest activity in the summer in the VIP Road population. This study suggests that C. quinquefasciatus could be used as an ecological indicator of heavy metal pollution by monitoring its MT-gene expression.

Effect of copper on growth of an aquatic macrophyte, Elodea canadensis.

Elodea canadensis has been proposed as a potential biomonitor due to its wide distribution and apparent ability to accumulate pollutants in aquatic ecosystems. We investigated the effects of copper sulfate on growth in E. canadensis to determine its effectiveness as a biomonitor of copper pollution in aquatic systems and whether growth is a suitable index of sub-lethal stress. Copper sulfate significantly slowed or stopped growth at all concentrations (low: 1 ppm, medium: 5 ppm, high: 10 ppm of copper sulfate) used. Final plant drymass was significantly lower in medium and high copper treatments compared with controls. E. canadensis appears to be very sensitive to copper levels, and may be useful as a biomonitor of copper levels in aquatic systems. However, its utility as a bioaccumulator may be limited, because we observed senescence of most leaves in all copper-treated plants following 4 weeks of treatment.

Effects of lead contamination on the growth of lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife).

The ability of individual species to tolerate or accumulate heavy metal pollutants has been investigated widely. Although invasive species may become established more easily in disturbed environments, relatively little is known about how an ability to tolerate pollutants might give invasive species a competitive advantage. This study is part of a series of experiments investigating native and invasive species interactions with chemical pollution and other forms of disturbance. The purpose of this experiment was to investigate the effects of lead on the growth of Lythrum salicaria. We exposed plants to different concentrations of lead and measured different growth parameters, such as biomass, length, leaf number, and biomass allocation to roots. For most measures, plants grown in lead-free conditions were larger than plants exposed to lead. Plants in the low (500 mg/l) and medium (1,000 mg/l) lead treatments did not differ from each other, while plants in the high (2,000 mg/l) lead treatment were significantly smaller. However, the biomass allocation to roots was not significantly different among treatments. Although their growth is affected, individuals of Lythrum salicaria demonstrated tolerance to lead contamination, which may aid in their colonization in lead-polluted wetlands.