A circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreak in a chronic conflict setting: a descriptive epidemiological study in South Sudan - 2020 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we describe the epidemiological profile of an outbreak of the circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Virus type 2 in South Sudan from 2020 to 2021. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective descriptive epidemiological study using data from the national polio/AFP surveillance database, the outbreak investigation reports, and the vaccination coverage survey databases stored at the national level. RESULTS: Between September 2020 and April 2021, 59 cases of the circulating virus were confirmed in the country, with 50 cases in 2020 and 9 cases in 2021. More cases were males (56%) under five (93%). The median age of the cases was 23.4 ± 11.9 months, ranging from 1 to 84 months. All states, with 28 out of the 80 counties, reported at least one case. Most of the cases (44, 75%) were reported from five states, namely Warrap (31%), Western Bahr el Ghazal (12%), Unity (12%), Central Equatoria (10%), and Jonglei (10%). Four counties accounted for 45.8% of the cases; these are Gogrial West with 12 (20%), Jur River with 5 (8.5%), Tonj North with 5 (8.5%), and Juba with 5 (8.5%) cases. The immunization history of the confirmed cases indicated that 14 (24%) of the affected children had never received any doses of oral polio or injectable vaccines either from routine or during supplemental immunization before the onset of paralysis, 17 (28.8%) had received 1 to 2 doses, while 28 (47.5%) had received 3 or more doses (Fig. 4). Two immunization campaigns and a mop-up were conducted with monovalent Oral Polio Vaccine type 2 in response to the outbreak, with administrative coverage of 91.1%, 99.1%, and 97% for the first, second, and mop-up rounds, respectively. CONCLUSION: The emergence of the circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreak in South Sudan was due to low population immunity, highlighting the need to improve the country's routine and polio immunization campaign coverage.

Bridging the humanitarian-development divide in a protracted crisis: a case study of the use of a central plant to supply oxygen for COVID-19 case management in South Sudan.

The rising demand for medicinal oxygen due to the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated an underlying chronic shortage of the commodity in Africa. This situation is particularly dire in protracted crises where insecurity, dysfunctional health facilities, poor infrastructure and prohibitive costs hinder equitable access to the commodity. Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Health of South Sudan, with the guidance of its partners, procured and installed a pressure swing adsorption central oxygen supply plant to address the shortfall. The plant aimed to ensure a more sustainable and technologically appropriate medicinal oxygen supply system for the country and to bridge the humanitarian and development divide, which had always been challenging. This article discusses the key issues, challenges and lessons associated with the procurement and installation of this plant. The major challenges encountered during the procurement and installation of the plant were the time it took to procure and install in the face of urgent needs for medicinal oxygen and its short and long-term sustainability. Lessons learnt include the need for exhaustive and evidence-based considerations in deciding on which source of medicinal oxygen to deploy in protracted crisis settings. The successful installation and operationalization of the plant demonstrated that it is possible to bridge the humanitarian-development divide amidst the complexities of a protracted crisis and an ongoing pandemic. The Ministries of Health, with the support of its partners, should assess and document the impact of this and other similar central oxygen production plants in protracted crisis settings regarding their sustainability, cost, and effectiveness on medicinal oxygen supply. The Ministry of Health of South Sudan should expedite the finalization and operationalization of the longer-term public-private partnership and continue to monitor the quality of oxygen produced by this plant.

Nationwide Measles and Rubella Outbreaks in South Sudan, 2019.

Background: South Sudan confirmed a measles outbreak in December 2018. An investigation was conducted to assess underlying causes of the outbreak. Methods: Vaccination coverage and measles surveillance data were analyzed. A suspected measles case had fever, maculopapular rash, and cough or conjunctivitis. A confirmed measles case had generalized maculopapular rash lasting >3 days, a temperature >38°C, and cough or conjunctivitis; or serologic confirmation (anti-measles immunoglobin M [IgM] antibody detection) in serum samples collected ≤30 days from rash onset. A confirmed rubella case tested measles IgM-negative and rubella IgM-positive. Results: Nationwide, 3727 suspected measles cases were reported in 2019. Seventy-five percent of all suspected measles cases were in children aged <5 years. Thirty-six percent of patients with suspected measles were admitted to the hospital, and 36 measles-related deaths were reported. Among cases, 922 (25%) were tested for measles; of these, 317 (34%) were measles IgM-positive. Among cases that tested measles IgM-negative, 149 (33%) were rubella IgM-positive. Immunization coverage for 1 dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) varied by state, ranging from 6% to 67%. Conclusions: Measles and rubella remain public health problems in South Sudan. To reduce measles incidence, South Sudan needs to achieve >95% coverage with 2 doses of MCV.

Integrated approaches to COVID-19 emergency response in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable settings: a public health policy brief.

In the absence of fully effective measures to prevent and treat COVID-19, the limited access to and hesitancy about vaccines, the prolongation of the on-going pandemic is likely. This underscores the need to continue to respond and maintain preparedness, preferably using a more sustainable approach. A sustainable management is particularly important in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable countries of sub-Saharan Africa given several peculiar challenges. This Viewpoint proposes policy options to guide transitioning from current COVID-19 emergency response interventions to longer-term and more sustainable responses in such settings. In the long term, a shift in policy from a vertical to a more effective approach should integrate response coordination, surveillance, case management, risk communication and operational support, among other elements, for better results. We call on public health policymakers, partners and donors to support full implementation of these policy options in a holistic manner to encompass all emerging public health threats.

Acute flaccid paralysis surveillance performance from 2011 to 2020 in Jonglei State, South Sudan: progress and challenges encountered.

Introduction: South Sudan reported the last indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) in 2001 in Unity State, while the country was part of Sudan. In addition, the country reported an imported case of WPV in 2004-2005 and 2008-2009. The WPV circulation in the state was interrupted in 2009 and the last case was reported in Ayod county. The country continues to be at risk of importation of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). In 2014 and 2020 the country experienced an outbreak of cVDPV2, in which Jonglei state was one of the affected states. Four out of 50 (8%) cVDPV2 cases in 2020 were reported from Jonglei State. The purpose of this study is to review surveillance performance indicators of Jonglei and compare them with the WHO surveillance performance standard and other country´s surveillance performances. Methods: retrospective secondary data analysis was conducted using the Jonglei state Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance case-based database from 2011 to 2020. The reason for selecting Jonglei is because it is one of the poor performing states and is chronically hit by flood and internal conflicts. Data analyses were carried out using the Microsoft Excel (2016) program, where descriptive analysis frequencies, tables, and graphs were generated. Results: the study revealed that 346 AFP cases were reported in the counties of Jonglei state from 2011 through 2020. Out of 11 counties, 11 (100%) of them have reported suspected AFP cases. Children under five years accounted for 275 (79%) of all cases. The male gender accounted for 175 (51%) of all cases. A total of 249 (72%) had received three or more doses of Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV). Non-Polio Acute Flaccid Paralysis (NPAFP) rate varies from 1.2 in 2014 to 4.4 cases per 100,000 children under 15 years in 2018. The stool adequacy ranges from 58% in 2020 to 100% in 2011. Conclusion: the performance of Jonglei´s AFP surveillance system did not meet the WHO recommended target for both major AFP surveillance indicators (non-polio AFP rate and stool adequacy) during the study period.

The sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance - the case of South Sudan: retrospective secondary analysis of AFP surveillance data 2014-2019.

Introduction: South Sudan has made quite impressive progress in interrupting wild poliovirus and maintaining a polio-free status since the last case was reported in 2009. South Sudan introduced different complementary strategies to enhance acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate the sensitivity of the surveillance system using the WHO recommended surveillance standard and highlight the progress and challenges over the years. Methods: we conducted a retrospective, descriptive, quantitative study design and used the available secondary AFP surveillance database. Results: the overall non-polio AFP rate was 6.2/100,000 children under 15 years old in the study period. The stool adequacy was maintained well above the certification level of surveillance. The two main surveillance performance indicators were met at the national level throughout the study period. In contrast, only five out of ten states persistently attained and maintained the two main surveillance performance indicators throughout the study period, while in 2019 all states achieved except for Jonglei state. During the analysis period, no wild poliovirus was isolated except two circulating Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 2 (cVDPV2) cases in 2014 and one Immunodeficiency Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 2 (iVDPV2) case in 2015. However, on average, three cases were classified as polio compatible with each year of the study. Conclusion: South Sudan met the two key surveillance performance indicators and had a sensitive AFP surveillance system during the period studied. We recommend intensifying surveillance activities in the former conflict-affected states and counties to maintain polio-free status.

Use of mobile medical teams to fill critical gaps in health service delivery in complex humanitarian settings, 2017-2020: a case study of South Sudan.

The vulnerable populations in the protracted humanitarian crisis in South Sudan are faced with constrained access to health services and frequent disease outbreaks. Here, we describe the experiences of emergency mobile medical teams (eMMT) assembled by the World Health Organization (WHO) South Sudan to respond to public health emergencies. Interventions: the eMMTs, multidisciplinary teams based at national, state and county levels, are rapidly deployed to conduct rapid assessments, outbreak investigations, and initiate public health response during acute emergencies. The eMMTs were deployed to locations affected by flooding, conflicts, famine, and disease outbreaks. We reviewed records of deployment reports, outreach and campaign registers, and analyzed the key achievements of the eMMTs for 2017 through 2020. Achievements: the eMMTs investigated disease outbreaks including cholera, measles, Rift Valley fever and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 13 counties, conducted mobile outreaches in emergency locations in 38 counties (320,988 consultations conducted), trained 550 healthcare workers including rapid response teams, and supported reactive measles vaccination campaigns in seven counties [148,726, (72-125%) under-5-year-old children vaccinated] and reactive oral cholera vaccination campaigns in four counties (355,790 vaccinated). The eMMT is relevant in humanitarian settings and can reduce excess morbidity and mortality and fill gaps that routine health facilities and health partners could not bridge. However, the scope of the services offered needs to be broadened to include mental and psychosocial care and a strategy for ensuring continuity of vaccination services and management of chronic conditions after the mobile outreach is instituted.

Joint external evaluation of the international health regulations (2005) capacity in South Sudan: assessing the country´s capacity for health security.

Introduction: joint external evaluation is a voluntary and collaborative process to assess a country´s capacity under International Health Regulations (2005) to prevent, detect, and respond to public health threats. The main objective is to measure a country´s status in building the necessary capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats and establish a baseline measurement of capacities and capabilities. The Republic of South Sudan conducted the Joint External Evaluation from 16-20 October 2017, where its capacities were assessed to public health threats per the International Health Regulation (2005). Methods: cross-sectional descriptive study of the Joint External Evaluation process and the findings are described along with major findings and recommendations for the country. Results: South Sudan's overall mean score across 48 indicators was 1.5 (min= 1, max= 4) and 42/48 indicators (87.5%) scored < 2 on a 1 to 5 scale. Technical areas in the prevent category with the lowest score were antimicrobial resistance, biosafety and biosecurity, and National legislation, policy, and financing. In the detect category, the mean score was 2. Technical areas with the lowest mean scores were workforce development and the National Laboratory System. Preparedness, medical countermeasures, personnel deployment, linking public health, and security authorities had the lowest scores in the respond category. Chemical events, radiation emergencies, and points of entry had a score of 1 in the other IHR-related hazards and points of entry category. Conclusion: South Sudan's mean score of 1.5 can be attributed to several civil conflicts experienced, which have impacted negatively on the health system. Recommendations from the Joint External Evaluation need to be implemented and these must be aligned with the costed National Action Plan for Health Security.

Analysis of the 2017-2018 Rift valley fever outbreak in Yirol East County, South Sudan: a one health perspective.

Introduction: the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic diseases have threatened both human and animal health globally since their identification in the 20th century. Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus is a recurrent zoonotic disease in South Sudan, with the earliest RVF cases confirmed in 2007 in Kapoeta North County, Eastern Equatoria state. Methods: we analyzed national RVF outbreak data to describe the epidemiological pattern of the RVF outbreak in Yirol East county in Lakes State. The line list of cases (confirmed, probable, suspected, and non-cases) was used to describe the pattern and risk factors associated with the outbreak. The animal and human blood samples were tested using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) (Immunoglobulin IgG and IgM) and Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). Qualitative data were collected from weekly RVF situation reports, and national guidelines and policies. Results: between December 2017 and December 2018, 58 suspected human RVF cases were reported. The cases were reclassified based on laboratory and investigations results, such that as of 16th December 2018, there were a total of six (10.3%) laboratory-confirmed, three (5.2%) probable, one (1.7%) suspected, and 48 (82.8%) non-cases were reported. A total of four deaths were reported during the outbreak (case fatality rate (CFR) 6.8% (4/58). A total of 28 samples were collected from animals; of these, six tested positives for RVF (positivity rate of 32.1% (9/28). The outbreak was announced in March 2018, after four months of the first reported suspected RVF case. Several factors were attributed to the delayed notification and outbreak announcement such as lack of multi-sectorial coordination at the state and county level, multi-sectoral coordination at national level mostly attended by public health experts from human health, inadequate animal health surveillance, poor coordination between livestock disease surveillance and public health surveillance, limited in-country laboratory diagnostic capacity, the laboratory results for the animal health took longer than expected, and lack of a national One Health approach strategy. Conclusion: the outbreak demonstrated gaps to investigate and respond to zoonotic disease outbreaks in South Sudan.

Assessment of infection prevention and control readiness for Ebola virus and other diseases outbreaks in a humanitarian crisis setting: a cross-sectional study of health facilities in six high-risk States of South Sudan.

Introduction: the study was conducted to assess the readiness and capacity of the core components of infection prevention and control and water, sanitation and hygiene in health facilities to effectively contain potential outbreaks of Ebola virus and other diseases in South Sudan. Methods: it is a descriptive cross-sectional study which was conducted in health facilities in six high-risk States of the country from September 2020 to December 2021. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed with Microsoft Excel software. Results: one hundred and fifty-one (151) health facilities with a total bed capacity of 3089 were enrolled into the study. Overall, the least prepared infection prevention and control, water and sanitation core components in ascending order were the coordination committee structure (13.19%), guidelines and SOPs (21.85%), vector control (22.02%), staff management (30.63%), and training received (33.64%). The best prepared components in descending order were integrated disease surveillance and response capacity (69.83%), medical waste management system (57.12%) and infrastructure compliance (54.69%). Conclusion: the findings of this study which is comparable to those of other studies in similar settings validates the perception that Infection Prevention and Control/Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (IPC/WASH) capacity and readiness is inadequate in South Sudan. To scale up these core components, we recommend development and implementation of a comprehensive and long-term infection prevention and control strategic plan as part of the country's broader health sector recovery planning.

Contribution of Auto-Visual AFP Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) on polio surveillance in South Sudan.

Introduction: the last wild polio virus in South Sudan was documented in 2009. Nonetheless, it was one of the last four countries in the WHO African region to be accepted as a polio-free country in June 2020. In line with this, to accelerate the polio-free documentation process, the country has piloted Auto Visual AFP Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) in three counties. This study examined the contribution of the AVADAR surveillance system to the traditional Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance system to document lessons learnt and best practices. Methods: we performed a retrospective descriptive quantitative study design to analyze secondary AVADAR surveillance data collected from June 2018 to December 2019 and stored at the WHO AVADAR server. Results: the AVADAR community surveillance system has improved the two main AFP surveillance indicators in the piloted counties and made up 86% of the total number of true AFP cases detected in these counties. The completeness and timeliness of weekly zero reporting were 97% and 94%, respectively and maintained above the standard throughout the study, while the two main surveillance indicators in the project area were improved progressively except for the Gogrial West County. In contrast, main surveillance indicators declined in some of the none-AVADAR implementing counties. Conclusion: the AVADAR surveillance system can overcome the logistical and remoteness barriers that can hinder the early detection and reporting of cases due to insecurity, topographical, and communication barrier in rural and hard-to-reach areas to accomplish and sustain the two main surveillance indicators, along with the completeness and timeliness of weekly zero reporting. We recommend extending this application-based surveillance system to other areas with limited resources and similar challenges by incorporating other diseases of public health concern.

Polio eradication in a chronic conflict setting lessons from the Republic of South Sudan, 2010-2020.

Introduction: in 1988 the World Health Assembly set an ambitious target to eradicate Wild Polio Virus (WPV) by 2000, following the successful eradication of the smallpox virus in 1980. South Sudan and the entire African region were certified WPV free on August 25, 2020. South Sudan has maintained its WPV free status since 2010, and this paper reviewed the country's progress, outlined lessons learned, and describes the remaining challenges in polio eradication. Methods: secondary data analysis was conducted using the Ministry of Health and WHO polio surveillance datasets, routine immunisation coverage, polio campaign data, and surveys from 2010 to 2020. Relevant technical documents and reports on polio immunisation and surveillance were also reviewed. Data analysis was conducted using EPI Info 7 software. Results: administrative routine immunisation coverage for bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) 3rd dose declined from 77% in 2010 to 56% in 2020. In contrast, the administrative and post-campaign evaluation coverage recorded for the nationwide supplemental polio campaigns since 2011 was consistently above 85%; however, campaigns declined in number from four in 2011 to zero in 2020. Overall, 76% of notified cases of Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) received three or more doses of the oral polio vaccine. The Annualized Non-AFP rate ranged between 4.0 to 5.4 per 100,000 under 15 years populations, and stool adequacy ranged from 83% to 94%. Conclusion: South Sudan's polio-free status documentation was accepted by the ARCC in 2020, thereby enabling the African Region to be certified WPV free on August 25, 2020. However, there are concerns as the country continues to report low routine immunisation coverage and a reduction in the number of polio campaigns conducted each year. It is recommended that the country conduct high-quality nationwide supplemental polio campaigns yearly to achieve and maintain the required herd immunity. It invests in its routine immunisation program while ensuring optimal AFP surveillance performance indicators.

Prevalence and factors associated with transmission of lymphatic filariasis in South Sudan: a cross-sectional quantitative study.

Introduction: South Sudan is affected by a high burden of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). The country is very vulnerable to NTDs due to its favourable tropical climate and multiple risk factors. However, the distribution of the diseases and the populations at risk for the various NTDs is unknown. This paper describes the distribution of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 58 counties of South Sudan. Methods: a descriptive quantitative cross-sectional study of LF in 58 counties in 8 states of South Sudan recruited adult volunteers aged ≥ 15 years tested for circulating filarial antigens (CFA). A quantitative descriptive statistical was performed to determine the prevalence rates and the endemicity (CFA positivity rate ≥1%) of lymphatic filariasis in 9213 adult individuals from 101 villages. Results: the overall prevalence of positive CFA was 1.6%, and the highest state prevalence was reported in the Upper Nile state at 3.4%. Based on the prevalence of positive CFA 64% of the surveyed counties are endemic to lymphatic filariasis. The endemicity ranged from 1-11.1% positive CFA. The highest prevalence of positive CAF was observed in the >50 years old age group (2.7%), followed by the 46-50 age group (2.3%). Males tested more positive than females (52.4% Vs 47.6%). Participants were three times more likely to test positive for CFA on filarial test strips (FTS) compared to immunochromatographic test (ICT). There was a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of positive CFA among the two tests (P=.002). Conclusion: the distribution of LF is widespread, with varying transmission risks. The produced prevalence maps of infection provided evidence on the areas for targeted interventions in the national NTD program in South Sudan. An increased number of positive CFA were identified using FTS than ICT; hence, it is advisable to use FTS in the future transmission survey.

Determining Inaccurate Coordinates in Electronic Data Collection for Surveillance and Immunization Supportive Supervision: A Case Study of Nigeria EPI Supportive Supervision Module.

The mobile phone global positioning system (GPS) is used to reconnaissance a mobile phone user's location, e.g., at work, home, shops, etc. Such information can be used to feed data gathering expeditions, the actual position of the interviewer/surveyor using the mobile phone inert settings of location mode via GPS, WIFI, and Mobile networks. Mobile devices are becoming progressively erudite and now integrate diverse and robust sensors. The new generation of smartphones is multi-laden with sensors, including GPS sensors. The study describes and evaluates a data-gathering process used by the World Health Organization (WHO-Nigeria, EPI Program) that uses phone-based in-built GPS sensors to identify the position of users while they undergo supportive supervision. This form of spatial data is collected intrinsically using the Open Data Kit (ODK) GPS interface, which interlaces with the mobile phone GPS sensor to fetch the geo-coordinates during the process. It represents a step in building a methodology of matching places on the map with the geo-coordinates received from the mobile phones to investigate deviation patterns by devices and location mode. The empirical results can help us to understand the variation in geospatial data collation across devices and highlight critical criteria for choosing mobile phones for mobile surveys and data campaigns. This study reviewed the existing data gathered inadvertently from 10 brands of smartphones over 1 year of using the mobile data collection with over 80,000 field visits to predict the deviation pattern for spatial data acquisition via mobile phones by different brands.

Leveraging Polio Geographic Information System Platforms in the African Region for Mitigating COVID-19 Contact Tracing and Surveillance Challenges: Viewpoint.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is an urgent public health crisis. Estimated models projected over 150,000 deaths and 4,600,000 hospitalizations in the first year of the disease in the absence of adequate interventions. Therefore, electronic contact tracing and surveillance have critical roles in decreasing COVID-19 transmission; yet, if not conducted properly, these methods can rapidly become a bottleneck for synchronized data collection, case detection, and case management. While the continent is currently reporting relatively low COVID-19 cases, digitized contact tracing mechanisms and surveillance reporting are necessary for standardizing real-time reporting of new chains of infection in order to quickly reverse growing trends and halt the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to describe a COVID-19 contact tracing smartphone app that includes health facility surveillance with a real-time visualization platform. The app was developed by the AFRO (African Regional Office) GIS (geographic information system) Center, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency preparedness and response team. The app was developed through the expertise and experience gained from numerous digital apps that had been developed for polio surveillance and immunization via the WHO's polio program in the African region. METHODS: We repurposed the GIS infrastructures of the polio program and the database structure that relies on mobile data collection that is built on the Open Data Kit. We harnessed the technology for visualization of real-time COVID-19 data using dynamic dashboards built on Power BI, ArcGIS Online, and Tableau. The contact tracing app was developed with the pragmatic considerations of COVID-19 peculiarities. The app underwent testing by field surveillance colleagues to meet the requirements of linking contacts to cases and monitoring chains of transmission. The health facility surveillance app was developed from the knowledge and assessment of models of surveillance at the health facility level for other diseases of public health importance. The Integrated Supportive Supervision app was added as an appendage to the pre-existing paper-based surveillance form. These two mobile apps collected information on cases and contact tracing, alongside alert information on COVID-19 reports at the health facility level; the information was linked to visualization platforms in order to enable actionable insights. RESULTS: The contact tracing app and platform were piloted between April and June 2020; they were then put to use in Zimbabwe, Benin, Cameroon, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Sudan, and their use has generated some palpable successes with respect to COVID-19 surveillance. However, the COVID-19 health facility-based surveillance app has been used more extensively, as it has been used in 27 countries in the region. CONCLUSIONS: In light of the above information, this paper was written to give an overview of the app and visualization platform development, app and platform deployment, ease of replicability, and preliminary outcome evaluation of their use in the field. From a regional perspective, integration of contact tracing and surveillance data into one platform provides the AFRO with a more accurate method of monitoring countries' efforts in their response to COVID-19, while guiding public health decisions and the assessment of risk of COVID-19.

Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 IgG in Juba, South Sudan, 20201.

Relatively few coronavirus disease cases and deaths have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa, although the extent of its spread remains unclear. During August 10-September 11, 2020, we recruited 2,214 participants for a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We found 22.3% of participants had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain IgG titers above prepandemic levels. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.3% (95% credible interval 31.8%-46.5%) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. At this rate, for each PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by the Ministry of Health, 103 (95% credible interval 86-126) infections would have been unreported, meaning SARS-CoV-2 has likely spread extensively within Juba. We also found differences in background reactivity in Juba compared with Boston, Massachusetts, USA, where the immunoassay was validated. Our findings underscore the need to validate serologic tests in sub-Saharan Africa populations.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Juba, South Sudan: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Relatively few COVID-19 cases and deaths have been reported through much of sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, although the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear due to weak surveillance systems and few population-representative serosurveys. METHODS: We conducted a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We quantified IgG antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain and estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian regression model accounting for test performance. RESULTS: We recruited 2,214 participants from August 10 to September 11, 2020 and 22.3% had anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers above levels in pre-pandemic samples. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.5% (32.1 - 46.8) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. For each RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 case, 104 (87-126) infections were unreported. Background antibody reactivity was higher in pre-pandemic samples from Juba compared to Boston, where the serological test was validated. The estimated proportion of the population infected ranged from 30.1% to 60.6% depending on assumptions about test performance and prevalence of clinically severe infections. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 has spread extensively within Juba. Validation of serological tests in sub-Saharan African populations is critical to improve our ability to use serosurveillance to understand and mitigate transmission.

Outcomes of the Deployment of the Auto-Visual Acute Flaccid Paralysis Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) System for Strengthening Polio Surveillance in Africa From 2017 to 2018: Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: As we move toward a polio-free world, the challenge for the polio program is to create an unrelenting focus on smaller areas where the virus is still present, where children are being repeatedly missed, where immunity levels are low, and where surveillance is weak. OBJECTIVE: This article aimed to describe a possible solution to address weak surveillance systems and document the outcomes of the deployment of the Auto-Visual Acute Flaccid Paralysis Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) project. METHODS: This intervention was implemented in 99 targeted high-risk districts with concerns for silent polio circulation from eight countries in Africa between August 1, 2017, and July 31, 2018. A total of 6954 persons (5390 community informants and 1564 health workers) were trained and equipped with a smartphone on which the AVADAR app was configured to allow community informants to send alerts on suspected acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and allow health worker to use electronic checklists for investigation of such alerts. The AVADAR and Open Data Kit ONA servers were at the center of the entire process. A dashboard system and coordination teams for monitoring and supervision were put in place at all levels. RESULTS: Overall, 96.44% (24,142/25,032) of potential AFP case alerts were investigated by surveillance personnel, yielding 1414 true AFP cases. This number (n=1414) reported through AVADAR was higher than the 238 AFP cases expected during the study period in the AVADAR districts and the 491 true AFP cases reported by the traditional surveillance system. A total of 203 out of the 1414 true AFP cases reported were from special population settings, such as refugee camps and insecure areas. There was an improvement in reporting in silent health areas in all the countries using the AVADAR system. Finally, there were 23,473 reports for other diseases, such as measles, diarrhea, and cerebrospinal meningitis, using the AVADAR platform. CONCLUSIONS: This article demonstrates the added value of AVADAR to rapidly improve surveillance sensitivity. AVADAR is capable of supporting countries to improve surveillance sensitivity within a short interval before and beyond polio-free certification.

Moving from rhetoric to action: how Africa can use scientific evidence to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 has spread rapidly to all countries of the world. Africa is particularly predisposed to an escalation of the pandemic and its negative impact given its weak economy and health systems. In addition, inadequate access to the social determinants of health such as water and sanitation and socio-cultural attributes may constrain the implementation of critical preventive measures such as hand washing and social distancing on the continent.Given these facts, the continent needs to focus on targeted and high impact prevention and control strategies and interventions which could break the chain of transmission quickly. We conclude that the available body of scientific evidence on the coronavirus disease 2019 holds the key to the development of such strategies and interventions.Going forward, we recommend that the African research community should scale up research to provide scientific evidence for a better characterization of the epidemiology, transmission dynamics, prevention and control of the virus on the continent.

The first sixty days of COVID-19 in a humanitarian response setting: a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the outbreak in South Sudan.

INTRODUCTION: the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. South Sudan, a low-income and humanitarian response setting, reported its first case of COVID-19 on April 5, 2020. We describe the socio-demographic and epidemiologic characteristics of COVID-19 cases in this setting. METHODS: we conducted a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of data for 1,330 confirmed COVID-19 cases from the first 60 days of the outbreak. RESULTS: among the 1,330 confirmed cases, the mean age was 37.1 years, 77% were male, 17% were symptomatic with 95% categorized as mild, and the case fatality rate was 1.1%. Only 24.7% of cases were detected through alerts and sentinel site surveillance, with 95% of the cases reported from the capital, Juba. Epidemic doubling time averaged 9.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.7 - 13.4), with an attack rate of 11.5 per 100,000 population. Test positivity rate was 18.2%, with test rate per 100,000 population of 53 and mean test turn-around time of 9 days. The case to contact ratio was 1: 2.2. CONCLUSION: this 2-month initial period of COVID-19 in South Sudan demonstrated mostly young adults and men affected, with most cases reported as asymptomatic. Systems´ limitations highlighted included a small proportion of cases detected through surveillance, low testing rates, low contact elicitation, and long collection to test turn-around times limiting the country´s ability to effectively respond to the outbreak. A multi-pronged response including greater access to testing, scale-up of surveillance, contact tracing and community engagement, among other interventions are needed to improve the COVID-19 response in this setting.