Early evaluation of the risk of functional decline following hospitalization of older patients: development of a predictive tool.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive tool that could be used on admission to identify older hospitalized people at risk of functional decline 3 months after discharge. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study that included 625 patients aged 70 years and older (mean age 80.0 +/- 5.6 years) hospitalized by the way of the emergency room, for at least 48 h, in two academic hospitals. Three months after discharge, 550 patients remained for analysis. On admission, people were assessed for premorbid functional status with the activities of daily living (ADL) scale and instrumental ADL scale. Demographic and medical data, including cognitive function, falls, polypharmacy, comorbidity, continence, mobility and self-rated health, were collected. ADL functioning was re-assessed at discharge and 1 and 3 months later. Functional decline was defined as the loss of at least one point on the ADL scale between the premorbid and 3-month evaluation. Univariate analyses were used to select variables associated with functional decline. A logistic regression model was then constructed to predict functional status 3 months after discharge. RESULTS: Three months after discharge, 165 (31.5%) patients had declined. The predictive tool SHERPA includes five factors: age, impairment in premorbid instrumental ADLs, falls in the year before hospitalization, cognitive impairment (Abbreviated Mini Mental State below 15/21) and poor self-rated health. Sensitivity and specificity were 67.9% and 70.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Older people are at high risk of functional decline following hospitalization. On admission, a simple instrument can easily identify these patients, even though the performance of this instrument is moderate.

Differential risk factors for early and later hospital readmission of older patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study aimed at analyzing rates and factors associated with early and later readmission (0-1 month and 2-3 months after discharge, respectively) of older people after index hospitalization. METHODS: This prospective observational study was conducted in two teaching hospitals. People 70 years and over were interviewed within 48 h of emergency admission. Socio-demographic and medical factors were collected, together with functional factors including Activities of Daily Living (basis and instrumental), cognitive state, and geriatric syndromes. Medical diagnosis, length of stay, and destination were collected at discharge, and patients were followed up by phone 1 and 3 months after discharge. During these interviews, outcomes on readmission, institutionalization, need for help, and death were evaluated. RESULTS: The population of 625 patients had a mean age of 80.0 years. The rate of early readmission (01 month) was 10. 7% and the overall rate within 3 months was 23.1%. Logistic regression analysis showed that variables predicting early readmission were previous hospitalization within 3 months, a longer length of stay, and a discharge diagnosis in chapter 8 (respiratory system) and chapter 10 (genito-urinary system) of the ICD-9-CM. Variables predicting later readmission were previous hospitalization within 3 months, a discharge diagnosis in chapter 7 (circulatory system) of the ICD-9-CM, and a poor pre-admission IADL score. CONCLUSIONS: In a medicalized population of older people, several risk factors may be identified for 0-1 month and 2-3 month readmission. Besides severe morbidities at discharge, diagnoses and previous hospitalization, pre-admission IADL was an independent risk factor for 2-3 month readmission.