Assessment of the accuracy of the Gail model in women with atypical hyperplasia.

PURPOSE: An accurate estimate of a woman's breast cancer risk is essential for optimal patient counseling and management. Women with biopsy-confirmed atypical hyperplasia of the breast (atypia) are at high risk for breast cancer. The Gail model is widely used in these women, but has not been validated in them. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Women with atypia were identified from the Mayo Benign Breast Disease (BBD) cohort (1967 to 1991). Their risk factors for breast cancer were obtained, and the Gail model was used to predict 5-year-and follow-up-specific risks for each woman. The predicted and observed numbers of breast cancers were compared, and the concordance between individual risk levels and outcomes was computed. RESULTS: Of the 9,376 women in the BBD cohort, 331 women had atypia (3.5%). At a mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 58 of 331 (17.5%) patients had developed invasive breast cancer, 1.66 times more than the 34.9 predicted by the Gail model (95% CI, 1.29 to 2.15; P < .001). For individual women, the concordance between predicted and observed outcomes was low, with a concordance statistic of 0.50 (95% CI, 0.44 to 0.55). CONCLUSION: The Gail model significantly underestimates the risk of breast cancer in women with atypia. Its ability to discriminate women with atypia into those who did and did not develop breast cancer is limited. Health care professionals should be cautious when using the Gail model to counsel individual patients with atypia.

Association of mammographic density with the pathology of subsequent breast cancer among postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Limited studies have examined the associations between mammographic density and subsequent breast tumor characteristics. METHODS: Eligible women were part of a case-control study of postmenopausal breast cancer, were 40 years or older and had a routine mammogram 4 years or more before their diagnosis. Mammographic density (percent density, dense area, and nondense area) was estimated using a computer-assisted thresholding program. At the time of cancer diagnosis, cases were classified as asymptomatic or symptomatic based on medical record review and breast imaging workup. Pathologic review was done blinded to the density status. Linear regression models and tests for trend examined the association between pathologic characteristics of the breast tumor and the components of density for all participants, and stratified by symptom status at diagnosis. RESULTS: Of the 286 eligible cases, 77% were 60 years or older and mean percent density was 29.5% (SD, 14.6%). Density was not significantly associated with tumor size (P = 0.22), histologic type (P = 0.77), estrogen receptor (P = 0.11) or progesterone receptor (P = 0.37) status, mitotic activity (P = 0.12), or nuclear pleomorphism (P = 0.09; P values for percent density). An inverse association was suggested between tumor grade and percent density (32.0%, 30.3%, 26.7% for grades 1-3; P = 0.06 for trend). The inverse association with tumor grade and its components (nuclear pleomorphism and tubular differentiation) was only evident among the 97 symptomatic women; positive associations of estrogen receptor (P = 0.009) and progesterone receptor (P = 0.04) were also seen with percent density only in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: The inverse association between tumor grade and percent density in the symptomatic population could inform the biology of the association between mammographic density and breast cancer risk.

Breast cancer risk in women with radial scars in benign breast biopsies.

BACKGROUND: The risk for subsequent breast cancer in women diagnosed with radial scar lesions (RS) on benign breast biopsy remains controversial. We studied the relative risk of radial scar lesions in a large cohort of patients with benign breast disease (BBD). METHODS: Radial scars were identified in a BBD cohort of 9,262 patients biopsied at Mayo Clinic between 1967 and 1991. Radial scar lesions were classified as proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA) unless atypia was present (classified as atypical hyperplasia [AH]). The observed number of breast cancers developing among those with RS was compared to that expected in the general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, mean follow-up interval 17 years). RESULTS: RS were identified in 439 (4.7%) of the cohort members; 382 (87.0%) contained one RS, 42 (9.6%) contained two, 9 (2.0%) contained three, and 6 (1.4%) contained four or more. The majority of RS (356, 82.4%) were less than 5.0 mm in diameter; 60 (13.9%) were 5.0-9.9 mm, and 16 (3.7%) were 10.0 mm or greater. The relative risk for women with PDWA and RS was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.36-2.53), no different than PDWA without RS [relative risk 1.57 (95% CI, 1.37-1.79) (P=0.29)]. Women with atypical hyperplasia and RS (n=60) had a relative risk of 2.81 (95% CI, 1.29-5.35), while those with atypia but without RS had a relative risk of 3.97 (95% CI, 2.99-5.19). CONCLUSIONS: RS imparts no increased breast cancer risk above that of PDWA or AH without RS.

Spirituality in alcoholics during treatment.

The purpose of this study was to measure spiritual well-being (SWB), private religious practices (PRP), positive religious coping, abstinence self-efficacy (AASE), affiliation with AA (AAA), and their associations with alcoholics in treatment. Seventy-four adults in a three-week outpatient addiction treatment program were assessed at admission and discharge. Wilcoxon signed rank and t tests demonstrated significant increases in all variables. Spearman correlation coefficients detected significant associations between the spiritual variables, SWB and AASE, as well as PRP and AAA. Findings suggest that spiritual variables can change during treatment and that there may be connections between spiritual variables and variables associated with longer-term recovery.

Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study.

PURPOSE: Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. RESULTS: With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. CONCLUSION: Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

Longitudinal trends in mammographic percent density and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. However, whether changes in mammographic density are associated with risk remains unclear. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A study of 372 incident breast cancer cases and 713 matched controls was conducted within the Mayo Clinic mammography screening practice. Controls were matched on age, exam date, residence, menopause, interval between, and number of mammograms. All serial craniocaudal mammograms 10 years before ascertainment were digitized, and quantitative measures of percent density (PD) were estimated using a thresholding method. Data on potential confounders were abstracted from medical records. Logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the interactions among PD at earliest mammogram, time from earliest to each serial mammogram, and absolute change in PD between the earliest and subsequent mammograms. Analyses were done separately for PD measures from the ipsilateral and contralateral breast and also by use of hormone therapy (HT). RESULTS: Subjects had an average of five mammograms available, were primarily postmenopausal (83%), and averaged 61 years at the earliest mammogram. Mean PD at earliest mammogram was higher for cases (31%) than controls (27%; ipsilateral side). There was no evidence of an association between change in PD and breast cancer risk by time. Compared with no change, an overall reduction of 10% PD (lowest quartile of change) was associated with an odds ratio of 0.9997 and an increase of 6.5% PD (highest quartile of change) with an odds ratio of 1.002. The same results held within the group of 220 cases and 340 controls never using HT. Among the 124 cases and 337 controls known to use HT during the interval, there was a statistically significant interaction between change in PD and time since the earliest mammogram (P = 0.01). However, in all groups, the risk associated with the earliest PD remained a stronger predictor of risk than change in PD. CONCLUSION: We observed no association between change in PD with breast cancer risk among all women and those never using HT. However, the interaction between change in PD and time should be evaluated in other populations.

Mammographic breast density as a general marker of breast cancer risk.

Mammographic breast density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer but whether breast density is a general marker of susceptibility or is specific to the location of the eventual cancer is unknown. A study of 372 incident breast cancer cases and 713 matched controls was conducted within the Mayo Clinic mammography screening practice. Mammograms on average 7 years before breast cancer were digitized, and quantitative measures of percentage density and dense area from each side and view were estimated. A regional density estimate accounting for overall percentage density was calculated from both mammogram views. Location of breast cancer and potential confounders were abstracted from medical records. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate associations, and C-statistics were used to evaluate the strength of risk prediction. There were increasing trends in breast cancer risk with increasing quartiles of percentage density and dense area, irrespective of the side of the breast with cancer (P(trends) < 0.001). Percentage density from the ipsilateral side [craniocaudal (CC): odds ratios (ORs), 1.0 (ref), 1.7, 3.1, and 3.1; mediolateral oblique (MLO): ORs, 1.0 (ref), 1.5, 2.2, and 2.8] and the contralateral side [CC: ORs, 1.0 (ref), 1.8, 2.2, and 3.7; MLO: ORs, 1.0 (ref), 1.6, 1.9, and 2.5] similarly predicted case-control status (C-statistics, 0.64-65). Accounting for overall percentage density, density in the region where the cancer subsequently developed was not a significant risk factor [CC: 1.0 (ref), 1.3, 1.0, and 1.2; MLO: 1.0 (ref), 1.1, 1.0, and 1.1 for increasing quartiles]. Results did not change when examining mammograms 3 years on average before the cancer. Overall mammographic density seems to represent a general marker of breast cancer risk that is not specific to breast side or location of the eventual cancer.

Age-related lobular involution and risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: As women age, the lobules in their breasts undergo involution or regression. We investigated whether lobular involution in women with benign breast disease was associated with subsequent breast cancer risk. METHODS: We examined biopsy specimens of 8736 women in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort from whom biopsy samples were taken between January 1, 1967, and December 31, 1991. Median follow-up for breast cancer outcomes was 17 years. We classified lobular involution in the background breast tissue as none (0% involuted lobules), partial (1%-74%), or complete (> or = 75%). Subsequent breast cancer events and data on other risk factors were obtained from medical records and follow-up questionnaires. To estimate relative risks (RRs), standardized incidence ratios were calculated by use of incidence rates from the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Distribution of extent of involution was none among 1627 (18.6%) women, partial among 5197 (59.5%), and complete among 1912 (21.9%). Increased involution was positively associated with increased age and inversely associated with parity (both P<.001). The relative risk for the entire cohort of 8736 women, compared with the Iowa SEER population, was 1.40 (95% CI = 1.30 to 1.51). Risk of breast cancer was associated with the extent of involution (for no involution, RR [i.e., observed versus expected] = 1.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.59 to 2.21; for partial involution, RR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.61; and for complete involution, RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.10; test for heterogeneity P<.001). Lobular involution modified risk in all subsets (e.g., among women with atypia, for no involution, RR = 7.79, 95% CI = 3.56 to 14.81; for partial involution, RR = 4.06, 95% CI = 3.03 to 5.33; and for complete involution, RR = 1.49, 95% CI = 0.41 to 3.82; P = .003). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of women with benign breast disease, lobular involution was associated with reduced risk of breast cancer. Aberrant involution may be a biologically important phenomenon in breast cancer biology.

An analysis of breast cancer risk in women with single, multiple, and atypical papilloma.

Breast papillomas may be single or multiple and associated with atypical ductal or lobular hyperplasias (ADH/ALH). The risk of breast carcinoma development in patients with papillomas, particularly those with multiple or atypical lesions, is incompletely defined. Fibrocystic lesions were histopathologically classified in a benign breast disease cohort of 9155 who underwent biopsy from 1967 to 1991, with papilloma assessment in 9108. Individuals with papillomas (N=480) were classified into 4 groups: single papilloma (SP, N=372), single papilloma with ADH or ALH (SP+A, N=54), multiple (>5) papillomas (MP, N=41), and multiple papillomas with ADH or ALH (MP+A, N=13). Those without papillomas were classified as nonproliferative (NP, N=6053), proliferative without atypia (PDWA, N=2308), and ADH/ALH [atypical hyperplasia (AH), N=267]. The relative risk of cancer development within our cohort was compared to that expected in the general population using standardized incidence ratios. The relative risk of breast cancer development associated with SP [2.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-2.81] was greater than NP (1.28, 95% CI 1.16-1.42) but similar to PDWA (1.90, 95% CI 1.66-2.16). The risk associated with SP+A (5.11, 95% CI 2.64-8.92) was highly elevated but not substantively different than atypical hyperplasia (4.17, 95% CI 3.10-5.50). Patients with MP are at increased risk compared with PDWA or SP (3.01, 95% CI 1.10-6.55), particularly those with MP+A (7.01, 95% CI 1.91-17.97). There was a marginal increase in breast cancer risk (16%) among patients with proliferative disease if a papilloma was present, but this did not reach statistical significance (P=0.29). The observed frequency of ipsilateral (vs. contralateral) breast cancer development in papilloma subsets was not significantly different than other patient groups. We conclude that SP imparts a cancer risk similar to conventional proliferative fibrocystic change. The presence of papilloma in, or associated with, atypia does not modify the risk connotation of ADH/ALH overall. MP constitutes a proliferative breast disease subset having unique clinical and biologic behavior.

Benign breast disease and the risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Benign breast disease is an important risk factor for breast cancer. We studied a large group of women with benign breast disease to obtain reliable estimates of this risk. METHODS: We identified all women who received a diagnosis of benign breast disease at the Mayo Clinic between 1967 and 1991. Breast-cancer events were obtained from medical records and questionnaires. To estimate relative risks, we compared the number of observed breast cancers with the number expected on the basis of the rates of breast cancer in the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. RESULTS: We followed 9087 women for a median of 15 years. The histologic findings were nonproliferative lesions in 67 percent of women, proliferative lesions without atypia in 30 percent, and atypical hyperplasia in 4 percent. To date, 707 breast cancers have developed. The relative risk of breast cancer for the cohort was 1.56 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.45 to 1.68), and this increased risk persisted for at least 25 years after biopsy. The relative risk associated with atypia was 4.24 (95 percent confidence interval, 3.26 to 5.41), as compared with a relative risk of 1.88 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.66 to 2.12) for proliferative changes without atypia and of 1.27 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.41) for nonproliferative lesions. The strength of the family history of breast cancer, available for 4808 women, was a risk factor that was independent of histologic findings. No increased risk was found among women with no family history and nonproliferative findings. In the first 10 years after the initial biopsy, an excess of cancers occurred in the same breast, especially in women with atypia. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for breast cancer after the diagnosis of benign breast disease include the histologic classification of a benign breast lesion and a family history of breast cancer.