Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard.

Hazard-level forecasts constitute an important risk mitigation tool to reduce loss of economic values and human life. Avalanche forecasts represent an example of this. As for many other domains, avalanche risk is communicated using a color-coded, categorical risk scale aimed at informing the public about past, current, and future risk. We report the results from three experiments in which we tested if an irrelevant past trend in forecasted avalanche danger affects perceptions of current and future avalanche risk. Our sample consisted of individuals from three different populations targeted by national avalanche warning services. All three experiments showed that the perception of avalanche risk is influenced by the trend, but that the effect is opposite for perceptions of current and expectations of future avalanche risk. While future avalanche risk is extrapolated in the same direction as the change from the previous day, we found that perceived current risk appears to be based on an average of past and current risk. These effects diminish when we provide participants with a scale indicating the exact level of avalanche danger. For most of our measurement instruments, however, the effects remain significant. These results imply that targeted populations may consider historic information more than was intended by the sender. As such, our results have implications for both avalanche warning services and risk communication in general.

Effects of 'doctor shopping' behaviour on prescription of addictive drugs in Sweden.

Free choice of health care providers is aimed to improve the quality of health care by increasing both access to it and the competition between providers. However, it may also give patients possibilities for doctor shopping (DS) behaviour, i.e., visiting different providers to receive illicit drug prescriptions. Abuse of prescribed addictive drugs is a growing problem worldwide and is associated with increased mortality, lower quality of life and other problems on both the individual and societal level. We study DS behaviour for three categories of addictive drugs - opioid painkillers, benzodiazepine anxiolytics, and z-hypnotic sleeping drugs, in the outpatient care sector in Västerbotten County, Sweden. Our dataset contains all drug prescriptions purchased by the residents of Västerbotten in the period from January 2014 to April 2016 (approximately 160,000 observations). To identify signs of addictive prescription drugs abuse by DS, we analyse overlapping prescriptions. We use 'Defined Daily Doses' (DDDs), which is the average treatment dose of a specific drug per day for adults, as a proxy for the treatment duration. To control for medically legitimate overlaps, we compare overlapping prescriptions within a clinic with overlapping prescriptions between different clinics. Our empirical results suggest that there is a significant and positive relationship between the number of overlapping doses and the number of unique providers in the overlap. More specifically, we find that visiting different providers on average gives patients up to three additional DDDs per day. This is three times higher than the standard treatment dose. We discuss policy implications in the concluding discussion.

Powder Fever and Its Impact on Decision-Making in Avalanche Terrain.

We examined the effect of emotions, associated with "powder fever", on decision-making in avalanche terrain. BACKGROUND: Skiing in avalanche terrain is a voluntary activity that exposes the participant to potentially fatal risk. Impaired decision-making in this context can therefore have devastating results, often with limited prior corrective feedback and learning opportunities. Previous research has suggested that arousal caused by emotions affects risk assessment and intentions to engage in risky behavior. We propose that powder fever may induce similar responses. METHODS: We used the following two experimental methods: laboratory studies with visual visceral stimuli (ski movies) and a field study with real stimuli (skiing exciting terrain). We evaluated the effect of emotions on attention, risk assessment, and willingness to expose oneself and others to risk. RESULTS: Both the laboratory studies and the field study showed that skiing-related stimuli had a relatively strong effect on reported emotions. However, we found very few significant effects on decision-making or assessment of risk. CONCLUSIONS: Skiing activities make people happier. However, despite the clear parallels to sexual arousal, powder fever does not appear to significantly impair decision-making in our study. More research on the effects of powder fewer on milder forms of risk-taking behavior is needed.