RESUMO
Antibiotics are often recommended as treatment for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. However, not all COPD exacerbations are caused by bacterial infections and there is consequently considerable misuse and overuse of antibiotics among patients with COPD. This poses a severe burden on healthcare resources such as increased risk of developing antibiotic resistance. The biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) displays specificity to distinguish bacterial inflammations from nonbacterial inflammations and may therefore help to rationalize antibiotic prescriptions. We report in this study, a three-country comparison of the health and economic consequences of a PCT biomarker-guided prescription and clinical decision-making strategy compared to current practice in hospitalized patients with COPD exacerbations. A decision tree was developed, comparing the expected costs and effects of the PCT algorithm to current practice in the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The time horizon of the model captured the length of hospital stay and a societal perspective was also adopted. The primary health outcome was the duration of antibiotic therapy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was defined as the incremental costs per antibiotic day avoided. The incremental cost savings per day on antibiotic therapy avoided were (in Euros) 90 in the Netherlands, 125 in Germany, and 52 in the United Kingdom. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that in the majority of simulations, the PCT biomarker strategy was superior to current practice (the Netherlands: 58%, Germany: 58%, and the United Kingdom: 57%). In conclusion, the PCT biomarker algorithm to optimize antibiotic prescriptions in COPD is likely to be cost-effective compared to current practice. Both the percentage of patients who start with antibiotic treatment as well as the duration of antibiotic therapy are reduced with the PCT decision algorithm, leading to a decrease in total costs per patient. Economic analysis based on real-life data is recommended for further research. Biomarker-driven prescription algorithms are important instruments for personalized medicine in COPD. This also attests to the emerging convergence of biomarker innovations and the broader field of Health Technology Assessment (HTA).
