RESUMO
Foot and mouth disease was the first disease for which, in 1996, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH; founded as OIE) established an official list of disease-free territories, which has helped to facilitate the trade of animals and animal products from those territories. Since that year, there have been a number of suspensions of FMD-free status which have impacted the livestock industry of the territories affected. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with the time taken to recover FMD-free status after suspension. Historical applications submitted (between 1996 and the first semester of 2020) by WOAH Members for recognition and recovery of FMD-free status were used as the main source of data. Only FMD-free status suspensions caused by outbreaks were considered. Data on the Member's socio-economic characteristics, livestock production systems, FMD outbreak characteristics, and control strategies were targeted for the analysis. The period of time taken to recover FMD-free status was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify factors associated with the time taken to recover FMD-free status after suspension. A total of 163 territories were granted official FMD-free status during the study period. The study sample consisted of 45 FMD-free status suspensions. Africa and the Americas accounted for over 50% of FMD-free status suspensions, while over 70% of these occurred in formerly FMD-free territories where vaccination was not practiced. The study noted that implementing a stamping-out or vaccination and remove policy shortened the time to recover FMD-free status, compared with a vaccination and retain policy. Other variables associated with the outcome were the income level of the Member, Veterinary Service capacity, time taken to implement control measures, time taken until the disposal of the last FMD case, whether the territory bordered FMD-infected territories, and time elapsed since FMD freedom. This analysis will contribute toward the understanding of the main determinants affecting the time to recover the FMD free status of WOAH Members and policy processes for FMD control and elimination.
RESUMO
Rabies is listed as one of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Neglected Tropical Diseases Worldwide, with a significant impact in South America. This paper explores the dynamics of rabies cases in humans, pets (dogs and cats), livestock and wildlife (bats in particular) in South America during the period 2009-2018. The data used in this study were derived from the two main databases for rabies in South America: the OIE-WAHIS from the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and PANAFTOSA's Regional Information System for the Epidemiological Surveillance of Rabies (SIRVERA). Being a neglected disease with possible underreporting in some areas, the reported rabies cases may not always represent the real disease burden. The analysis focuses on the evolution of the number of cases in time and their spatial distribution, as well as on the main source of infections in humans, determined by laboratory assays of the antigenic variant or through epidemiological investigations. Additionally, Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to evaluate the risk factors associated with the occurrence of human cases. Our results show that the highest impact of the disease in terms of number of cases was reported on livestock, while the overall number of cases (in animals and humans) progressively decreased along the study period. The spatial distribution of rabies in livestock showed two main clusters in the north-western (mainly Colombia) and in the south-eastern part of the affected area (Brazil), and a third smaller cluster in Peru. A cluster in dogs was observed in Bolivia. Out of the 192 human cases reported during the study period, 70% of them were transmitted by bats. The number of human cases reported during the study period were significantly associated with the number of rabies cases reported in livestock, pets and wildlife. Despite the overall decreasing case report rate, the disease still represents a major animal and public health concern in South America, and new strategies for compiling systematic information, networking and education are needed, as well as the education and training of veterinary staff.
RESUMO
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of major importance for human and animal health because of high morbidity and mortality in poultry and the potential for transmission of this zoonotic pathogen to humans. Knowledge of HPAI epidemiology in avian populations and practical information on the temporal and spatial spread of the disease after introduction into a country is important in order to enhance the capacity of predicting and managing epidemics to minimize the negative impacts on human and animal health. Using data reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health between 2005 and 2017 by 199 countries for 14,129 outbreaks in poultry, we used a spatial and time-series analysis to determine that: (a) During the last 12 years, there were two major global peaks in the number of countries affected by HPAI with 23% and 26% of countries affected in 2006 and 2016. (b) Based on the seasonality analysis, spread is the lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. (c) The median distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was 111 km, while the median apparent rate of spread of outbreaks was 1.9 km/day. (d) In 39% of HPAI events, the disease did not spread beyond the index outbreak and the median maximum spread from the index outbreak per event was 45 km. (e) The distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was significantly negatively correlated with the number of outbreaks during the same time period, indicating that the spread of HPAI was lower during global panzootics than during periods of low transmission. These findings are of major importance for veterinary services to design and implement surveillance measures for improving preparedness to minimize the impacts of this disease.
