The role of ambient parameters on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: A machine learning model.

BACKGROUND: In recent years the relationship between ambient air temperature and the prevalence of viral infection has been under investigation. OBJECTIVE: The study was aimed at providing the statistical and machine learning-based analysis to investigate the influence of climatic factors on frequency of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. METHOD: The data of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and some climatic factors related to 31 provinces of Iran between 04/03/2020 and 05/05/2020 was gathered from official resources. In order to investigate the important climatic factors on the frequency of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in all studied cities, a model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed. RESULTS: The proposed ANN model showed accuracy rates of 87.25%and 86.4%in the training and testing stage, respectively, for classification of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The results showed that in the city of Ahvaz, despite the increase in temperature, the coefficient of determination R2 has been increasing. CONCLUSION: This study clearly showed that, with increasing outdoor temperature, the use of air conditioning systems to set a comfort zone temperature is unavoidable. Thus, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 increases. Also, this study shows the role of closed-air cycle condition in the indoor environment of tropical cities.

Parvovirus 4 in Individuals with Severe Hemophilia A and Matched Control Group.

Background: Hemophilia is a well-known bleeding disorder with worldwide distribution. Replacement therapy, using plasma-derived or recombinant coagulation factors, comprises a gold standard regimen for the treatment. Regardless of the advancements made in viral inactivation methods in the production of plasma-derived coagulation factors, the possibility of transmission of new viral infections remained as a noticeable concern yet. The aim of the current study was to investigate the status of parvovirus 4 (PARV4) in severe hemophilia A, von Willebrand disease (vWD), and healthy control. Materials and Methods: In the current case-control study, 76 patients with hemophilia and vWD and 60 individuals from their family members entered the study. Nested PCR used to determine the presence of PARV4 in study subjects (76 cases). To characterize the PARV4 genotype, positive samples subjected to sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Results: PARV4 genome detected in 11 (14.47%) patients with bleeding disorders. Among whom, nine patients (14.75%) were with severe hemophilia A and two (13.33%) patients with vWD. Only five healthy controls (8.33%) were positive for PARV4. All PARV4 sequences were found to be genotype 1. Conclusion: PARV4 infection in patients with hemophilia and vWD was higher than the control group. While detection of PARV4 DNA in patients with bleeding disorders may not necessarily reflect a clinical urgency, future investigations are needed to define the clinical significance of PARV4. It seems the detection of the virus immune signature of PARV4 infection, particularly in the context of acute and persistent infections, needs to focus on cellular and tissue targets.

Seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus infection and IL-1Β, IL-10, IL-17, and IL-28 polymorphisms in Iranian population.

Increased blood cytokines is the main immunopathological process that were attributed to severe clinical outcomes in cases of influenza A/H3N2 virus infection. The study was aimed to investigate the polymorphisms of IL-1ß, IL-10, IL-17, and IL-28 genes to find the possibility of their association with the clinical outcome of influenza A/H3N2 virus infection among the infected patients in Iran. This is a Case-Control study in which influenza A/H3N2 virus positive confirmed with real-time PCR were the cases. DNA samples from groups were genotyped for polymorphisms in rs16944 (IL-1ß), rs1800872 (IL-10), rs2275913 (IL-17), and rs8099917 (IL-28). Confidence interval (95%CI) and Odds ratio (OR) were calculated. IL-17 rs2275913 (GG and AG) were associated with risk of infection with that were statistically significant (P < 0.05, OR = 2.08-2.94). IL-1ß (rs16944) (GG) was associated with reduced risk of infection (P < 0.01, OR = 0.46). Genotype GG and GT of IL-10 (rs1800872) were associated with increased risk of infection with influenza A/H3N2 virus (P < 0.05, OR = 2.04-2.58). In addition, IL-28 (rs8099917) genotypes GG (P < 0.05, OR = 0.49) and TG (P < 0.05, OR = 0.59) were associated with reduced risk of ILI symptom while genotype TT (P < 0.01, OR = 4.31) was associated with increased risk of ILI symptom. The results of this study demonstrated that polymorphisms of genes involved in the inflammatory and anti-inflammatory process affect the outcome of disease caused by influenza A/H3N2 virus. Thorough insight on host immune response at the time of influenza A virus infection is required to ensure adequate patient care in the case of feature outbreaks. J. Med. Virol. 88:2078-2084, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.