Post-marketing active surveillance of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in persons aged 12-39 years in Italy: a multi-database, self-controlled case series study

ObjectivesTo investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, and myocarditis/pericarditis. DesignSelf-Controlled Case Series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination and emergency care/hospital admissions. SettingItalian Regions (Lombardia, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto, Lazio). Participants2,861,809 individuals, aged 12-39 years, vaccinated with the first doses of mRNA vaccines (2,405,759 BNT162b2 and 456,050 mRNA-1273) between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. Main outcome measuresFirst diagnosis of myocarditis/pericarditis within the study period. The incidence of events in the exposure risk periods (0-21 days from the vaccination day, subdivided in three equal intervals) for first and second dose was compared with baseline period. The SCCS model was fitted using conditional Poisson regression to estimate Relative Incidences (RI) and Excess of Cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose, age, gender and brand. ResultsDuring the study period, 441 participants aged 12-39 years developed myocarditis/pericarditis (346 BNT162b2 and 95 mRNA-1273). During the 21-day risk interval there were 114 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis (74 BNT162b2 and 40 mRNA-1273) corresponding to a RI of 1.27 (0.87-1.85) and 2.16 (1.50-3.10) after first and second dose, respectively. An increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis at [0-7) days was observed after first [RI=6.55; 95% Confidence Interval (2.73-15.72); EC per 100,000 vaccinated=2.0 (1.5-2.3)] and second dose [RI=7.59 (3.26-17.65); EC=5.5 (4.4-5.9)] of mRNA-1273 and after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.39 (2.02-5.68); EC=0.8 (0.6-1.0)]. In males, an increased risk at [0-7) days was observed after first [RI=12.28, 4.09-36.83; EC=3.8 (3.1-4.0)] and second dose [RI=11.91 (3.88-36.53); EC=8.8 (7.2-9.4)] of mRNA-1273 and after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.45 (1.78-6.68); EC=1.0 (0.6-1.2)]. In females, an increased risk at [0-7) days was observed after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.38 (1.47-7.74); EC=0.7 (0.3-0.9)]. At [0-7) days an increased risk following second dose of BNT162b2 was observed in the 12-17 years old [RI=5.74, (1.52-21.72); EC=1.7 (0.7-1.9)] and in 18-29 years old [RI=4.02 (1.81-8.91); EC=1.1 (0.6-1.3)]. At [0-7) days an increased risk after first [RI=7.58 (2.62-21.94); EC=3.5 (2.4-3.8)] and second [RI=9.58 (3.32-27.58); EC=8.3 (6.7-9.2)] dose of mRNA-1273 was found in 18-29 years old and after first dose in 30-39 years old [RI=6.57 (1.32-32.63); EC=1.0 (0.3-1.1)]. ConclusionsThis population-based study indicates that mRNA vaccines were associated with myocarditis/pericarditis in the population younger than 40 years, whereas no association was observed in older subjects. The risk increased after the second dose and in the youngest for both vaccines, remained moderate following vaccination with BNT162b2, while was higher in males following vaccination with mRNA-1273. The public health implication of these findings should be weighed in the light of the overall efficacy and safety profile of both vaccines.

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The TOCIVID-19 phase 2 trial

BackgroundTocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients. MethodsA multicentre, single-arm, hypothesis-driven phase 2 trial was planned to study the effect of Tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints). A cohort of patients consecutively enrolled after phase 2 was used as a validation dataset. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to generate hypotheses, while controlling for possible confounders. Resultsout of 301 patients in phase 2 intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, 180 (59.8%) received tocilizumab. With 67 death events, lethality rates were 18.4% (97.5%CI: 13.6-24.0, P=0.52) and 22.4% (97.5%CI: 17.2-28.3, P<0.001) at 14 and 30 days. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, including 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. The multivariable logistic regression suggests tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. Also, it supports a positive effect on lethality rate of the use of corticosteroids. ConclusionsTocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Such result support the use of tocilizumab while waiting for ongoing phase 3 trials. RegistrationEudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092)

Survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Northern Italy: a population-based cohort study by the ITA-COVID19 Network

BackgroundCOVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies, but reliable estimates specific for age, sex, and comorbidities are needed to design trials for COVID-19 interventions. Aim of this study is to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. MethodsA cohort study was conducted in Lombardy, Veneto, and Reggio Emilia using COVID-19 registries linked to hospital discharge databases containing patient clinical histories. All patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test on oral/nasopharyngeal swabs hospitalized from 21st February to 21st April 2020 were identified. Kaplan Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex and Charlson Index. FindingsOverall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients median age was 69 years (IQR: 57-79), 62{middle dot}6% were males, 69{middle dot}4% had a Charlson Index of 0. In total, 11,205 (26{middle dot}1%) patients died over a median follow-up of 24 days (IQR: 10-35). Survival curves showed that 22{middle dot}0% of patients died within 14 days and 27{middle dot}6% within 30 days of hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. Younger patients with comorbidities had a lower survival than older ones with comorbidities. InterpretationOver 27% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients died within one month in three areas of Northern Italy that were heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such a high fatality rate suggests that trials should focus on survival and have follow-up of at least one month. FundingThe study did not receive any external funding. Research in contextEvidence before this study Two recent systematic reviews with meta-analyses report case fatality rates of three to four percent in COVID-19 patients. Most studies on hospitalized cohorts report only slightly higher figures. These figures do not correspond to those derived from routinely collected clinical data in most European countries, reporting a 10% case fatality rate which has been increasing over time since the epidemic started. Robust and precise survival estimates of hospitalized COVID-19 patients which take into account prognostic factors such as age, sex and burden of comorbidities are needed to design appropriate phase II and phase III clinical studies of drugs targeting COVID-19. Added value of this studyIn this study we present the first survival estimates by age, sex and Charlson index for a large population-based cohort of Italian hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Implications of all the available evidenceOver 27% of COVID-19 patients died within one month from hospital admission. Such a high fatality rate suggests that studies should prioritize mortality as primary outcome. Furthermore, we found that the fatality rate reaches a plateau 30 days after hospitalization, suggesting that studies should have at least one month of follow up to observe deaths; shorter follow-up could lead to overestimation of treatment benefits.