Insufficient Evidence of Purported Lunar Effect on Pollination in Ephedra.

It has been suggested that the timing of pollination in Ephedra foeminea coincides with the full moon in July. The implication is that the plant can detect the full moon through light or gravity and that this trait is an evolutionary adaptation that aids the navigation by pollinating insects. Here we show that there are insufficient data to make such a claim, and we predict that pollinations of E. foeminea do not in general coincide with the full moon.

No evidence of purported lunar effect on hospital admission rates or birth rates.

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate that a fraction of nursing professionals believe in a "lunar effect"-a purported correlation between the phases of the Earth's moon and human affairs, such as birth rates, blood loss, or fertility. PURPOSE: This article addresses some of the methodological errors and cognitive biases that can explain the human tendency of perceiving a lunar effect where there is none. APPROACH: This article reviews basic standards of evidence and, using an example from the published literature, illustrates how disregarding these standards can lead to erroneous conclusions. FINDINGS: Román, Soriano, Fuentes, Gálvez, and Fernández (2004) suggested that the number of hospital admissions related to gastrointestinal bleeding was somehow influenced by the phases of the Earth's moon. Specifically, the authors claimed that the rate of hospital admissions to their bleeding unit is higher during the full moon than at other times. Their report contains a number of methodological and statistical flaws that invalidate their conclusions. Reanalysis of their data with proper procedures shows no evidence that the full moon influences the rate of hospital admissions, a result that is consistent with numerous peer-reviewed studies and meta-analyses. A review of the literature shows that birth rates are also uncorrelated to lunar phases. CONCLUSIONS: Data collection and analysis shortcomings, as well as powerful cognitive biases, can lead to erroneous conclusions about the purported lunar effect on human affairs. Adherence to basic standards of evidence can help assess the validity of questionable beliefs.

Gravity field and internal structure of Mercury from MESSENGER.

Radio tracking of the MESSENGER spacecraft has provided a model of Mercury's gravity field. In the northern hemisphere, several large gravity anomalies, including candidate mass concentrations (mascons), exceed 100 milli-Galileos (mgal). Mercury's northern hemisphere crust is thicker at low latitudes and thinner in the polar region and shows evidence for thinning beneath some impact basins. The low-degree gravity field, combined with planetary spin parameters, yields the moment of inertia C/MR(2) = 0.353 ± 0.017, where M and R are Mercury's mass and radius, and a ratio of the moment of inertia of Mercury's solid outer shell to that of the planet of C(m)/C = 0.452 ± 0.035. A model for Mercury's radial density distribution consistent with these results includes a solid silicate crust and mantle overlying a solid iron-sulfide layer and an iron-rich liquid outer core and perhaps a solid inner core.

Topography of the northern hemisphere of Mercury from MESSENGER laser altimetry.

Laser altimetry by the MESSENGER spacecraft has yielded a topographic model of the northern hemisphere of Mercury. The dynamic range of elevations is considerably smaller than those of Mars or the Moon. The most prominent feature is an extensive lowland at high northern latitudes that hosts the volcanic northern plains. Within this lowland is a broad topographic rise that experienced uplift after plains emplacement. The interior of the 1500-km-diameter Caloris impact basin has been modified so that part of the basin floor now stands higher than the rim. The elevated portion of the floor of Caloris appears to be part of a quasi-linear rise that extends for approximately half the planetary circumference at mid-latitudes. Collectively, these features imply that long-wavelength changes to Mercury's topography occurred after the earliest phases of the planet's geological history.

Spin rate of asteroid (54509) 2000 PH5 increasing due to the YORP effect.

Radar and optical observations reveal that the continuous increase in the spin rate of near-Earth asteroid (54509) 2000 PH5 can be attributed to the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, a torque due to sunlight. The change in spin rate is in reasonable agreement with theoretical predictions for the YORP acceleration of a body with the radar-determined size, shape, and spin state of 2000 PH5. The detection of asteroid spin-up supports the YORP effect as an explanation for the anomalous distribution of spin rates for asteroids under 10 kilometers in diameter and as a binary formation mechanism.

Direct detection of the asteroidal YORP effect.

The Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect is believed to alter the spin states of small bodies in the solar system. However, evidence for the effect has so far been indirect. We report precise optical photometric observations of a small near-Earth asteroid, (54509) 2000 PH5, acquired over 4 years. We found that the asteroid has been continuously increasing its rotation rate omega over this period by domega/dt = 2.0 (+/-0.2) x 10(-4) degrees per day squared. We simulated the asteroid's close Earth approaches from 2001 to 2005, showing that gravitational torques cannot explain the observed spin rate increase. Dynamical simulations suggest that 2000 PH5 may reach a rotation period of approximately 20 seconds toward the end of its expected lifetime.

No evidence for thick deposits of ice at the lunar south pole.

Shackleton crater at the Moon's south pole has been suggested as a possible site of concentrated deposits of water ice, on the basis of modelling of bi-static radar polarization properties and interpretations of earlier Earth-based radar images. This suggestion, and parallel assumptions about other topographic cold traps, is a significant element in planning for future lunar landings. Hydrogen enhancements have been identified in the polar regions, but these data do not identify the host species or its local distribution. The earlier Earth-based radar data lack the resolution and coverage for detailed studies of the relationship between radar scattering properties, cold traps in permanently shadowed areas, and local terrain features such as the walls and ejecta of small craters. Here we present new 20-m resolution, 13-cm-wavelength radar images that show no evidence for concentrated deposits of water ice in Shackleton crater or elsewhere at the south pole. The polarization properties normally associated with reflections from icy surfaces in the Solar System were found at all the observed latitudes and are strongly correlated with the rock-strewn walls and ejecta of young craters, including the inner wall of Shackleton. There is no correlation between the polarization properties and the degree of solar illumination. If the hydrogen enhancement observed by the Lunar Prospector orbiter indicates the presence of water ice, then our data are consistent with the ice being present only as disseminated grains in the lunar regolith.

Radar imaging of binary near-Earth asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4.

High-resolution radar images reveal near-Earth asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 to be a binary system. The approximately 1.5-kilometer-diameter primary (Alpha) is an unconsolidated gravitational aggregate with a spin period approximately 2.8 hours, bulk density approximately 2 grams per cubic centimeter, porosity approximately 50%, and an oblate shape dominated by an equatorial ridge at the object's potential-energy minimum. The approximately 0.5-kilometer secondary (Beta) is elongated and probably is denser than Alpha. Its average orbit about Alpha is circular with a radius approximately 2.5 kilometers and period approximately 17.4 hours, and its average rotation is synchronous with the long axis pointed toward Alpha, but librational departures from that orientation are evident. Exotic physical and dynamical properties may be common among near-Earth binaries.

Direct detection of the Yarkovsky effect by radar ranging to asteroid 6489 Golevka.

Radar ranging from Arecibo, Puerto Rico, to the 0.5-kilometer near-Earth asteroid 6489 Golevka unambiguously reveals a small nongravitational acceleration caused by the anisotropic thermal emission of absorbed sunlight. The magnitude of this perturbation, known as the Yarkovsky effect, is a function of the asteroid's mass and surface thermal characteristics. Direct detection of the Yarkovsky effect on asteroids will help constrain their physical properties, such as bulk density, and refine their orbital paths. Based on the strength of the detected perturbation, we estimate the bulk density of Golevka to be 2.7(+0.4)(-0.6) grams per cubic centimeter.