COVID-19 mortality among working-age Americans in 46 states, by industry and occupation

IntroductionA small body of epidemiological research suggests that working in an essential sector is a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection or subsequent disease or mortality. However, there is limited evidence to date on the US, or on how the risks associated with essential work differ across demographic subgroups defined by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. MethodsUsing publicly available data from the National Center for Health Statistics on deaths occurring in the US in 2020, we calculated per-capita COVID-19 mortality by industry and occupation. We additionally calculated per-capita COVID-19 mortality by essential industry--essential or not--by age group, sex, and race/ethnicity. ResultsAmong non-military individuals and individuals with a known industry or occupation, there were 48,030 reported COVID-19 deaths, representing 25.1 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 working-age individuals after age standardization. Per-capita age-standardized COVID-19 mortality was 1.96 times higher among essential workers than among workers in non-essential industries, representing an absolute difference of 14.9 per 100,000. Across industry, per-capita age-standardized COVID-19 mortality was highest in the following industries: accommodation and food services (45.4 per 100,000); transportation and warehousing (43.4); agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (42.3); mining (39.6); and construction (38.7). DiscussionGiven that SARS-CoV-2 is an airborne virus, we call for collaborative efforts to ensure that workplace settings are properly ventilated and that workers have access to effective masks. We also urge for paid sick leave, which can help increase vaccine access and minimize disease transmission.

COVID-19 mortality and excess mortality among working-age Californians, by occupational sector: March 2020 through November 2021

BackgroundDuring the first year of the pandemic, essential workers faced higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than non-essential workers. It is unknown whether disparities in pandemic-related mortality across occupational sectors have continued to occur, amidst SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine availability. MethodsWe obtained data on all deaths occurring in the state of California from 2016 through 2021. We restricted our analysis to California residents who were working age (18-65 years at time of death) and died of natural causes. Occupational sector was classified into 9 essential sectors; non-essential; or not in the labor market. We calculated the number of COVID-19 deaths in total and per capita that occurred in each occupational sector. Separately, using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we estimated total, per-capita, and relative excess natural-cause mortality by week between March 1, 2020, and November 30, 2021, stratifying by occupational sector. We additionally stratified analyses of occupational risk into regions with high versus low vaccine uptake, categorizing high-uptake regions as counties where at least 50% of the population completed a vaccination series by August 1, 2021. FindingsFrom March 2020 through November 2021, essential work was associated with higher COVID-19 and excess mortality compared with non-essential work, with the highest per-capita COVID-19 mortality in agriculture (131.8 per 100,000), transportation/logistics (107.1), manufacturing (103.3), and facilities (101.1). Essential workers continued to face higher COVID-19 and excess mortality during the period of widely available vaccines (March through November 2021). Between July and November 2021, emergency workers experienced higher per-capita COVID-19 mortality (113.7) than workers from any other sector. Essential workers faced the highest COVID-19 mortality in counties with low vaccination rates, a difference that was more pronounced during the period of the Delta surge in Summer 2021. InterpretationEssential workers have continued to bear the brunt of high COVID-19 and excess mortality throughout the pandemic, particularly in the agriculture, emergency, manufacturing, facilities, and transportation/logistics sectors. This high death toll has continued during periods of vaccine availability and the delta surge. In an ongoing pandemic without widespread vaccine coverage and anticipated threats of new variants, the US must actively adopt policies to more adequately protect essential workers.

A descriptive analysis of 2020 California Occupational Safety and Health Administration COVID-19-related complaints

COVID-19 mortality disproportionately affected specific occupations and industries. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) protects the health and safety of workers by setting and enforcing standards for working conditions. Workers may file OSHA complaints about unsafe conditions. Complaints may indicate poor workplace safety during the pandemic. We evaluated COVID-19-related complaints filed with California (Cal)/OSHA between January 1, 2020 and December 14, 2020 across seven industries. To assess whether workers in occupations with high COVID-19-related mortality were also most likely to file Cal/OSHA complaints, we compared industry-specific per-capita COVID-19 confirmed deaths from the California Department of Public Health with COVID-19-related complaints. Although 7,820 COVID-19-related complaints were deemed valid by Cal/OSHA, only 627 onsite inspections occurred and 32 citations were issued. Agricultural workers had the highest per-capita COVID-19 death rates (402 per 100,000 workers) but were least represented among workplace complaints (44 per 100,000 workers). Health Care workers had the highest complaint rates (81 per 100,000 workers) but the second lowest COVID-19 death rate (81 per 100,000 workers). Industries with the highest inspection rates also had high COVID-19 mortality. Our findings suggest complaints are not proportional to COVID-19 risk. Instead, higher complaint rates may reflect worker groups with greater empowerment, resources, or capacity to advocate for better protections. This capacity to advocate for safe workplaces may account for relatively low mortality rates in potentially high-risk occupations. Future research should examine factors determining worker complaints and complaint systems to promote participation of those with the greatest need of protection.

Contributions of occupation characteristics and educational attainment to racial/ethnic inequities in COVID-19 mortality

BackgroundRacial/ethnic inequities in COVID-19 mortality are hypothesized to be driven by education and occupation, but limited empirical evidence has assessed these mechanisms. ObjectiveTo quantify the extent to which educational attainment and occupation explain racial/ethnic inequities in COVID-19 mortality. DesignObservational cohort. SettingCalifornia. ParticipantsCalifornians aged 18-65 years. MeasurementsWe linked all COVID-19-confirmed deaths in California through February 12, 2021 (N=14,783), to population estimates within strata defined by race/ethnicity, sex, age, USA nativity, region of residence, education, and occupation. We characterized occupations using measures related to COVID-19 exposure including essential sector, telework-ability, and wages. Using sex-stratified regressions, we predicted COVID-19 mortality by race/ethnicity if all races/ethnicities had the same education and occupation distribution as White people and if all people held the safest educational/occupational positions. ResultsCOVID-19 mortality per 100,000 ranged from 15 for White and Asian females to 139 for Latinx males. Accounting for differences in age, nativity, and region, if all races/ethnicities had the education and occupation distribution of Whites, COVID-19 mortality would be reduced for Latinx males (-22%) and females (-23%), and Black males (-1%) and females (-8%), but increased for Asian males (+22%) and females (+23%). Additionally, if all individuals had the COVID-19 mortality associated with the safest educational and occupational position (Bachelors degree, non-essential, telework, highest wage quintile), there would have been 57% fewer COVID-19 deaths. ConclusionEducational and occupational disadvantage are important risk factors for COVID-19 mortality across all racial/ethnic groups, especially Latinx individuals. Eliminating avoidable excess risk associated with low-education, essential, on-site, and low-wage jobs may reduce COVID-19 mortality and inequities, but is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve equity.

Amyloid-PET imaging offers small improvements in predictions of future cognitive trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Amyloid ß (Aß) is thought to initiate a cascade of pathology culminating in Alzheimer's disease-related cognitive decline. Aß accumulation in brain tissues may begin one to two decades prior to clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. Prior studies have demonstrated that Aß detected in vivo with positron emission tomography with amyloid ligands (amyloid-PET) predicts contemporaneously measured cognition and future cognitive trajectories. Prior studies have not evaluated the added value of Aß measures in predicting future cognition when repeated past cognitive measures are available. We evaluated the extent to which amyloid-PET improves prediction of future cognitive changes over and above predictions based only on sociodemographics and past cognitive measures. METHODS: We used data from participants in the University of California Davis Alzheimer's Disease Research cohort who were cognitively normal at baseline, participated in amyloid-PET imaging, and completed at least three cognitive assessments prior to amyloid-PET imaging (N = 132 for memory andN = 135 for executive function). We used sociodemographic and cognitive measures taken prior to amyloid-PET imaging to predict cognitive trajectory after amyloid-PET imaging and assessed whether measures of amyloid burden improved predictions of subsequent cognitive change. Improvements in prediction were characterized as percent reduction in the mean squared error (MSE) in predicted cognition post amyloid-PET and increase in percent variance explained. RESULTS: The base model using only sociodemographics and past cognitive performance explained the majority of variance in both predicted memory measures (55.6%) and executive function measures (74.5%) following amyloid-PET. Adding amyloid positivity to the model reduced the MSE for memory by 0.2%, 95% CI: (0%, 2.6%), p = 0.48 and for executive function by 3.4%, 95% CI: (0.6%, 10.2%), p = 0.002. This corresponded to an increase in the percent variance explained of 0.1%, 95% CI: (0%, 1.2%) for memory and 0.9%, 95% CI: (0.1%, 2.8%) for executive function. Similar results were obtained using a continuous measure of amyloid burden. CONCLUSION: In this cohort, the addition of amyloid burden slightly improved predictions of executive function compared to models based only on past cognitive assessments and sociodemographics. When repeated cognitive assessments are available, the additional utility of amyloid-PET in predicting future cognitive impairment may be limited.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic among Californians 18-65 years of age, by occupational sector and occupation: March through October 2020

BackgroundThough SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been documented in occupational settings and though there is speculation that essential workers face heightened risks for COVID-19, occupational differences in excess mortality have, to date, not been examined. Such information could point to opportunities for intervention, such as workplace modifications and prioritization of vaccine distribution. Methods and findingsUsing death records from the California Department of Public Health, we estimated excess mortality among Californians 18-65 years of age by occupational sector and occupation, with additional stratification of the sector analysis by race/ethnicity. During the COVID-19 pandemic, working age adults experienced a 22% increase in mortality compared to historical periods. Relative excess mortality was highest in food/agriculture workers (39% increase), transportation/logistics workers (28% increase), facilities (27%) and manufacturing workers (23% increase). Latino Californians experienced a 36% increase in mortality, with a 59% increase among Latino food/agriculture workers. Black Californians experienced a 28% increase in mortality, with a 36% increase for Black retail workers. Asian Californians experienced an 18% increase, with a 40% increase among Asian healthcare workers. Excess mortality among White working-age Californians increased by 6%, with a 16% increase among White food/agriculture workers. ConclusionsCertain occupational sectors have been associated with high excess mortality during the pandemic, particularly among racial and ethnic groups also disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In-person essential work is a likely venue of transmission of coronavirus infection and must be addressed through strict enforcement of health orders in workplace settings and protection of in-person workers. Vaccine distribution prioritizing in-person essential workers will be important for reducing excess COVID mortality.

Excess deaths among Latino people in California during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundLatino people in the US are experiencing higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than any other racial/ethnic group, but it is unclear which subgroups within this diverse population are most affected. Such information is necessary to target policies that prevent further excess mortality and reduce inequities. MethodsUsing death certificate data for January 1, 2016 through February 29, 2020 and time-series models, we estimated the expected weekly deaths among Latino people in California from March 1 through October 3, 2020. We quantified excess mortality as observed minus expected deaths and risk ratios (RR) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. We considered subgroups defined by age, sex, place of birth, education, occupation, and combinations of these factors. FindingsDuring the first seven months of the pandemic, Latino deaths in California exceeded expected deaths by 10,316, a 31% increase. Excess death rates were greatest for individuals born in Mexico (RR 1.44; 95% PI, 1.41, 1.48) or Central America (RR 1.49; 95% PI, 1.37, 1.64), with less than a high school degree (RR 1.41; 95% PI, 1.35, 1.46), or in food-and-agriculture (RR 1.60; 95% PI, 1.48, 1.74) or manufacturing occupations (RR 1.59; 95% PI, 1.50, 1.69). Immigrant disadvantages in excess death were magnified among working-age Latinos in essential occupations. InterpretationThe pandemic has disproportionately impacted mortality among Latino immigrants and Latinos in unprotected essential jobs; Interventions to reduce these disparities should include early vaccination, workplace safety enforcement, and expanded access to medical care. FundingNational Institute on Aging; UCSF RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSSeveral articles have suggested all-cause excess mortality estimates are superior to official COVID-19 counts for assessing the impact of the pandemic on marginalized populations that lack access to testing and healthcare. We searched PubMed, Google scholar, and the medRxiv preprint database through December 22, 2020 for studies of ("excess mortality" or "excess death") AND ("COVID-19" or "coronavirus") set in the United States and we identified two empirical studies with estimates of excess mortality among Latinos during the pandemic. The study set in California (from our research team) found per capita excess mortality was highest among Black and Latino people. The national study found percent excess mortality was significantly higher among Latino people than any other racial/ethnic group. Neither study further disaggregated the diverse Latino population or provided subgroup estimates to clarify why excess pandemic mortality is so high in this population. In the U.S., official COVID-19 statistics are rarely disaggregated by place of birth, education, or occupation which has resulted in a lack of evidence of how these factors have impacted mortality during the pandemic. No study to date of excess mortality in the U.S. has provided estimates for immigrant or occupational subgroups. Added value of this studyOur population-based observational study of all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic provides the first estimates of within-group heterogeneity among the Latino population in California - one of the populations hardest hit by COVID-19 in the U.S. We provide the first subgroup estimates by place of birth and occupational sector, in addition to combined estimates by foreign-birth and participation in an essential job and education. In doing so, we reveal that Latino immigrants in essential occupations have the highest risk of excess death during the pandemic among working-age Latinos. We highlight the heightened risk of excess mortality associated with food/agriculture and manufacturing occupational sectors, essential sectors in which workers may lack COVID-19 protections. Implications of all the available evidenceOur study revealed stark disparities in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic among Latinos, pointing to the particularly high vulnerability of Latino immigrants and Latinos in essential jobs. These findings may offer insight into the disproportionate COVID-19 mortality experienced by immigrants or similarly marginalized groups in other contexts. Interventions to reduce these disparities should include policies enforcing occupational safety, especially for immigrant workers, early vaccination, and expanded access to medical care.

Post-traumatic Stress Disorder and 20-Year Physical Activity Trends Among Women.

INTRODUCTION: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may be associated with physical inactivity, a modifiable lifestyle factor that contributes to risk of cardiovascular and other chronic diseases; however, no study has evaluated the association between PTSD onset and subsequent physical activity (PA) changes. METHOD: Analyses were conducted between October 2014 and April 2016, using data from the ongoing Nurses' Health Study II (N=50,327). Trauma exposure and PTSD symptoms were assessed using two previously validated measures, the Brief Trauma Questionnaire and Short Screening Scale for DSM-IV PTSD. Average PA (hours/week) was assessed using self-report measures at six time points across 20 years (1989-2009). Linear mixed models with time-updated PTSD assessed differences in PA trajectories by trauma/PTSD status. Among a subsample of women whose trauma/PTSD onset during follow-up, group differences in PA patterns before and after onset were assessed using linear spline models. RESULTS: PA decreased more steeply over time among trauma-exposed women reporting four or five (ß= -2.5E-3, SE=1.0E-3, p=0.007) or six or seven PTSD symptoms (ß= -6.7E-3, SE=1.1E-3, p<0.001) versus women without trauma exposure, adjusting for potential confounders. Among a subsample of women whose trauma/PTSD symptoms onset during follow-up, no differences in PA were observed prior to onset; after onset, women with six or seven PTSD symptoms had a steeper decline (ß= -17.1E-3, SE=4.2E-3, p<0.001) in PA over time than trauma-exposed women without PTSD. CONCLUSIONS: Decreases in PA associated with PTSD symptoms may be a pathway through which PTSD influences cardiovascular and other chronic diseases.

Combining direct and proxy assessments to reduce attrition bias in a longitudinal study.

Retaining severely impaired individuals poses a major challenge in longitudinal studies of determinants of dementia or memory decline. In the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), participants complete direct memory assessments biennially until they are too impaired to complete the interview. Thereafter, proxy informants, typically spouses, assess the subject's memory and cognitive function using standardized instruments. Because there is no common scale for direct memory assessments and proxy assessments, proxy reports are often excluded from longitudinal analyses. The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS) implemented full neuropsychological examinations on a subsample (n=856) of HRS participants, including respondents with direct or proxy cognitive assessments in the prior HRS core interview. Using data from the ADAMS, we developed an approach to estimating a dementia probability and a composite memory score on the basis of either proxy or direct assessments in HRS core interviews. The prediction model achieved a c-statistic of 94.3% for DSM diagnosed dementia in the ADAMS sample. We applied these scoring rules to HRS core sample respondents born 1923 or earlier (n=5483) for biennial assessments from 1995 to 2008. Compared with estimates excluding proxy respondents in the full cohort, incorporating information from proxy respondents increased estimated prevalence of dementia by 12 percentage points in 2008 (average age=89) and suggested accelerated rates of memory decline over time.

Self-reported and measured hypertension among older US- and foreign-born adults.

Self-reported hypertension is frequently used for health surveillance. However, little is known about the validity of self-reported hypertension among older Americans by nativity status. This study compared self-reported and measured hypertension among older black, white, and Hispanic Americans by nativity using the 2006 and 2008 Health and Retirement Study (n = 13,451). Sensitivity and specificity of self-reported hypertension were calculated using the Seventh report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure definition. Sensitivity was high among older blacks (88.9%), whites (82.8%), and Hispanics (84.0%), and both foreign-born (83.2%) and US-born (84.0%). Specificity was above 90% for both US-born and foreign-born, but higher for whites (92.8%) than blacks (86.0%). Despite the potential vulnerability of older foreign-born Americans, self-reported hypertension may be considered a reasonable estimate of hypertension status. Future research should confirm these findings in samples with a larger and more ethnically diverse foreign-born population.