The development of an alternative growth chart for estimated fetal weight in the absence of ultrasound: Application in Indonesia.

A fetal growth chart is a vital tool for assessing fetal risk during pregnancy. Since fetal weight cannot be directly measured, its reliable estimation at different stages of pregnancy has become an essential issue in obstetrics and gynecology and one of the critical elements in developing a fetal growth chart for estimated fetal weight. In Indonesia, however, a reliable model and data for fetal weight estimation remain challenging, and this causes the absence of a standard fetal growth chart in antenatal care practices. This study has reviewed and evaluated the efficacy of the prediction models used to develop the most prominent growth charts for estimated fetal weight. The study also has discussed the potential challenges when such surveillance tools are utilized in low resource settings. The study, then, has proposed an alternative model based only on maternal fundal height to estimate fetal weight. Finally, the study has developed an alternative growth chart and assessed its capability in detecting abnormal patterns of fetal growth during pregnancy. Prospective data from twenty selected primary health centers in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, were used for the proposed model validation, the comparison task, and the alternative growth chart development using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Results show that limited access to individual fetal biometric characteristics and low-quality data on personal maternal and neonatal characteristics make the existing fetal growth charts less applicable in the local setting. The proposed model based only on maternal fundal height has a comparable ability in predicting fetal weight with less error than the existing models. The results have shown that the developed chart based on the proposed model can effectively detect signs of abnormality, between 20 and 41 weeks, among low birth weight babies in the absence of ultrasound. Consequently, the developed chart would improve the quality of fetal risk assessment during pregnancy and reduce the risk of adverse neonatal outcomes.

Optimal Profile Limits for Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) Influenced by Haemorrhage and Unsafe Abortion in South Sudan.

Maternal mortality rate (MMR) is one of the main worldwide public health challenges. Presently, the high levels of MMR are a common problem in the world public health and especially, in developing countries. Half of these maternal deaths occur in Sub-Saharan Africa where little or nothing progress has been made. South Sudan is one of the developing countries which has the highest MMR. Thus, this paper deploys statistical analysis to identify the significant physiological causes of MMR in South Sudan. Prediction models based on Poisson Regression are then developed to predict MMR in terms of the significant physiological causes. Coefficients of determination and variance inflation factor are deployed to assess the influence of the individual causes on MMR. Efficacy of the models is assessed by analyzing their prediction errors. The paper for the first time has used optimization procedures to develop yearly lower and upper profile limits for MMR. Hemorrhaging and unsafe abortion are used to achieve UN 2030 lower and upper MMR targets. The statistical analysis indicates that reducing haemorrhaging by 1.91% per year would reduce MMR by 1.91% (95% CI (42.85-52.53)), reducing unsafe abortion by 0.49% per year would reduce MMR by 0.49% (95% CI (11.06-13.56)). The results indicate that the most influential predictors of MMR are; hemorrhaging (38%), sepsis (11.5%), obstructed labour (11.5%), unsafe abortion (10%), and indirect causes such as anaemia, malaria, and HIV/AIDs virus (29%). The results also show that to obtain the UN recommended MMR levels of minimum 21 and maximum 42 by 2030, the Government and other stakeholders should simultaneously, reduce haemorrhaging from the current value of 62 to 33.38 and 16.69, reduce unsafe abortion from the current value of 16 to 8.62 and 4.31. Thirty years of data is used to develop the optimal reduced Poisson Model based on hemorrhaging and unsafe abortion. The model with R 2 of 92.68% can predict MMR with mean error of -0.42329 and SE-mean of 0.02268. The yearly optimal level of hemorrhage, unsafe abortion, and MMR can aid the government and other stakeholders on resources allocation to reduce the risk of maternal death.

Improving the Information Availability and Accessibility of Antenatal Measurements to Ensure Safe Delivery: A Research-Based Policy Recommendation to Reduce Neonatal Mortality in Indonesia.

PURPOSE: Assessing the risks and preventable causes of maternal and neonatal mortality requires the availability of good-quality antenatal information. In Indonesia, however, access to reliable information on pregnancy-related results remains challenging. This research has proposed a research-based policy recommendation to improve availability and accessibility to vital information on antenatal examinations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Descriptive statistics were used to characterize midwives' capabilities in routinely gathering and recording antenatal information during pregnancy. The investigation was carried out among 19 midwives in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, from April 2016 to October 2017. Antenatal data on 4946 women (retrospective study) and 381 women (prospective study) have been accessed through a scientific and technical training program. RESULTS: To date, lack of timely access to antenatal information has hampered the process of reducing neonatal mortality in Indonesia. The post-training statistical analysis showed that the training has significantly improved midwives' scientific knowledge and technical abilities in providing more reliable data on antenatal measurements. CONCLUSION: Consistent scientific and technical training among midwives is required to update their knowledge and skills, particularly those relating to documenting the results of antenatal examinations at different stages of pregnancy and using that information to assess potential risks and identify necessary interventions. This should also be followed by routine monitoring on the quality of collected antenatal data. This can be one of the enabling actions to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals target in reducing neonatal mortality in Indonesia.

The Impact of Scientific and Technical Training on Improving Databases' Adequacy for Fetal Growth Chart Development in Limited-Resource Settings: A Case Study in the Province of South Kalimantan, Indonesia.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of scientific and technical training on midwives' abilities in collecting and recording the key performance indicators for fetal growth chart development in limited-resource settings. METHODS: A descriptive design was used to describe midwives' abilities in timely collecting and recording the minimum data required to estimate fetal weight and develop fetal growth chart. The study was conducted among 19 urban and rural midwives in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, between April 2016 and October 2017. The training provided access to antenatal care information on 4,946 women (retrospective cohort study) and 381 women (prospective cohort study). RESULTS: The average amount of recorded antenatal care data on the key performance indicators of fetal growth assessment has been significantly improved (from 33.4% to 89.1%, p-value < 0.0005) through scientific and technical training. CONCLUSIONS: Scientific knowledge and technical abilities have enabled midwives to timely record routine data of the key performance indicators for fetal growth surveillance. Access to this information is vital during different stages of pregnancy. The information can be utilised as evidence-based guidelines to assess fetal risks through fetal weight estimation and to develop fetal growth chart that is currently not available in Indonesian primary healthcare systems.

Foetal weight prediction models at a given gestational age in the absence of ultrasound facilities: application in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Birth weight is one of the most important indicators of neonatal survival. A reliable estimate of foetal weight at different stages of pregnancy would facilitate intervention plans for medical practitioners to prevent the risk of low birth weight delivery. This study has developed reliable models to more accurately predict estimated foetal weight at a given gestation age in the absence of ultrasound facilities. METHODS: A primary health care centre was involved in collecting retrospective non-identified Indonesian data. The best subset model selection criteria, coefficient of determination, standard deviation, variance inflation factor, Mallows Cp, and diagnostic tests of residuals were deployed to select the most significant independent variables. Simple and multivariate linear regressions were used to develop the proposed models. The efficacy of models for predicting foetal weight at a given gestational age was assessed using multi-prediction accuracy measures. RESULTS: Four weight prediction models based on fundal height and its combinations with gestational age (between 32 and 41 weeks) and ultrasonic estimates of foetal head circumference and foetal abdominal circumference have been developed. Multiple comparison criteria show that the proposed models were more accurate than the existing models (mean prediction errors between - 0.2 and 2.4 g and median absolute percentage errors between 4.1 and 4.2%) in predicting foetal weight at a given gestational age (between 35 and 41 weeks). CONCLUSIONS: This research has developed models to more accurately predict estimated foetal weight at a given gestational age in the absence of ultrasound machines and trained ultra-sonographers. The efficacy of the models was assessed using retrospective data. The results show that the proposed models produced less error than the existing clinical and ultrasonic models. This research has resulted in the development of models where ultrasound facilities do not exist, to predict the estimated foetal weight at varying gestational age. This would promote the development of foetal inter growth charts, which are currently unavailable in Indonesian primary health care systems. Consistent monitoring of foetal growth would alleviate the risk of having inter growth abnormalities, such as low birth weight that is the most leading factor of neonatal mortality.

The Impact of Scientific and Technical Training on Improving Routine Collection of Antenatal Care Data for Maternal and Foetal Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Province of South Kalimantan, Indonesia.

OBJECTIVES: First, to assess the impact of scientific and technical training on midwives' abilities in collecting and recording the results of routine antenatal care examinations. Second, to explore midwives' views with regard to factors affecting their abilities to successfully complete the data documentation tasks. METHODS: The study was conducted in South Kalimantan, Indonesia (April 2016-October 2017). Nineteen urban and rural midwives were selected. Access to antenatal care information on 4,946 women (retrospective cohort study) and 381 women (prospective cohort study) was granted. A descriptive and exploratory design was used to describe midwives' abilities and challenges pertaining to timely collection and recording of results concerning antenatal care examinations. RESULTS: Scientific and technical training has significantly improved the average amount of recorded antenatal care data (from 17.5% to 62.1%, p-value < 0.0005). Lack of awareness, high workload, and insufficient skills and facilities are the main reasons for the database gaps. CONCLUSIONS: The training has equipped midwives with scientific knowledge and technical abilities to allow routine collection of antenatal care data. Provision and adequate use of this information during different stages of pregnancy is crucial as an evidence-based guideline to assess maternal and foetal risk factors to ending preventable mortality.

Optimal profile limits for maternal mortality rate (MMR) in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Reducing Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is considered by the international community as one of the eight Millennium Development Goals. Based on previous studies, Skilled Assistant at Birth (SAB), General Fertility Rate (GFR) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been identified as the most significant predictors of MMR in South Sudan. This paper aims for the first time to develop profile limits for the MMR in terms of significant predictors SAB, GFR, and GDP. The paper provides the optimal values of SAB and GFR for a given MMR level. METHODS: Logarithmic multi- regression model is used to model MMR in terms of SAB, GFR and GDP. Data from 1986 to 2015 collected from Juba Teaching Hospital was used to develop the model for predicting MMR. Optimization procedures are deployed to attain the optimal level of SAB and GFR for a given MMR level. MATLAB was used to conduct the optimization procedures. The optimized values were then used to develop lower and upper profile limits for yearly MMR, SAB and GFR. RESULTS: The statistical analysis shows that increasing SAB by 1.22% per year would decrease MMR by 1.4% (95% CI (0.4-5%)) decreasing GFR by 1.22% per year would decrease MMR by 1.8% (95% CI (0.5-6.26%)). The results also indicate that to achieve the UN recommended MMR levels of minimum 70 and maximum 140 by 2030, the government should simultaneously reduce GFR from the current value of 175 to 97 and 75, increase SAB from the current value of 19 to 50 and 76. CONCLUSIONS: This study for the first time has deployed optimization procedures to develop lower and upper yearly profile limits for maternal mortality rate targeting the UN recommended lower and upper MMR levels by 2030. The MMR profile limits have been accompanied by the profile limits for optimal yearly values of SAB and GFR levels. Having the optimal level of predictors that significantly influence the maternal mortality rate can effectively aid the government and international organizations to make informed evidence-based decisions on resources allocation and intervention plans to reduce the risk of maternal death.

Five-year efficacy and safety of tenofovir-based salvage therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B who previously failed LAM/ADV therapy.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant HBV continues to be an important clinical problem. The TDF-109 study demonstrated that TDF±LAM is an effective salvage therapy through 96 weeks for LAM-resistant patients who previously failed ADV add-on or switch therapy. We evaluated the 5-year efficacy and safety outcomes in patients receiving long-term TDF±LAM in the TDF-109 study. METHODS: A total of 59 patients completed the first phase of the TDF-109 study and 54/59 were rolled over into a long-term prospective open-label study of TDF±LAM 300 mg daily. RESULTS: Results are reported at the end of year 5 of treatment. At year 5, 75% (45/59) had achieved viral suppression by intent-to-treat analysis. Per-protocol assessment revealed 83% (45/54) were HBV DNA undetectable. Nine patients remained HBV DNA detectable, however 8/9 had very low HBV DNA levels (<264IU/mL) and did not meet virological criteria for virological breakthrough (VBT). One patient experienced VBT, but this was in the setting of documented non-compliance. The response was independent of baseline LAM therapy or mutations conferring ADV resistance. Four patients discontinued TDF, one patient was lost to follow-up and one died from hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term TDF treatment appears to be safe and effective in patients with prior failure of LAM and a suboptimal response to ADV therapy. These findings confirm that TDF has a high genetic barrier to resistance is active against multidrug-resistant HBV, and should be the preferred oral anti-HBV agent in CHB patients who fail treatment with LAM and ADV.

Characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

AIM: To determine characteristics and prognostic predictors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in association with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: We reviewed the records of all patients with NAFLD associated HCC between 2000 and 2012. Data collected included demographics; histology; presence or absence of cirrhosis, size and number of HCC, alpha-fetoprotein, body mass index (BMI), and the presence of diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidaemia. RESULTS: Fifty-four patients with NAFLD associated HCC were identified. Mean age was 64 years with 87% male. Fifteen percent (8/54) were not cirrhotic. 11%, 24% and 50% had a BMI of <25 kg/m2, 25-29 kg/m2 and ≥30 kg/m2 respectively. Fifty-nine percent were diabetic, 44% hypertensive and 26% hyperlipidaemic. Thirty-four percent of the patients had ≤1 of these risk factors. Non-cirrhotics had a significantly larger mean tumour diameter at diagnosis than cirrhotics (P=0.041). Multivariate analysis did not identify any other patient characteristics that predicted the size or number of HCC. CONCLUSION: HCC can develop in NAFLD without cirrhosis. At diagnosis such tumours are larger than those in cirrhotics, conferring a poorer prognosis.

Outcomes in the surgical treatment of low rectal cancer: does neoadjuvant treatment equalize results?

BACKGROUND: The choice of operation for potentially curable cancer of the low rectum (≤6 cm from the anal verge) is usually between ultra low anterior resection (ULAR) or abdominal perineal excision (APE). Numerous studies have suggested improved results with ULAR. METHODS: This study was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data for a series of patients undergoing surgical treatment for low rectal cancer at three Melbourne hospitals. The patient details and outcomes were compared between those undergoing APE and ULAR. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-eight of 213 patients with potentially curable low rectal cancer were treated by either ULAR (n = 82) or APE (n = 116). Overall survival and local recurrence rates were similar, although there was a trend towards improved results for ULAR. Preoperative radiation was received by 89 (76.7%) of APE patients and 44 (53.7%) of ULAR patients (P < 0.0005). CONCLUSION: In this study there was no statistical difference in the oncological results between APE and ULAR. However, there was a trend to improved result for ULAR in spite of a strikingly higher rate of neoadjuvant radiation in the APE group. It is possible that enhanced use of preoperative radiation has a beneficial role in the management of low rectal cancer treated by conventional APE.

Quality of life after surgery in individuals with familial colorectal cancer: does extended surgery have an adverse impact?

BACKGROUND: There is controversy regarding the optimum surgical treatment of patients presenting with colorectal cancer with known or suspected genetic cancer syndromes. Although standard segmental resection may be curative, a high risk of metachronous malignancy leads many to advocate extended surgery. The current study was designed to assess whether or not extended surgery adversely impacts quality of life compared to segmental surgery. METHODS: Records at The Royal Melbourne Hospital Family Cancer Clinic were searched in order to identify patients with suspected high risk familial colon cancer. Patients who underwent surgery were identified and mailed two Standardized Quality of Life Questionnaires (EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-CR38). RESULTS: Fifty respondents met the inclusion criteria. None of the 15 patients whose primary operation was an extended procedure developed a metachronous cancer. Seventeen of the 35 (48.67%) who had an initial segmental resection had subsequent surgery for metachronous cancer. At the time of the questionnaire, 27 had extended surgery and 23 had segmental operations. The overall global health status and quality of life was very similar between the two groups. CONCLUSION: This study confirms that there is a high rate of metachronous cancer for patients undergoing segmental resection for hereditary colon cancer. Quality of life following either segmental or extended resection is not significantly different. Consequently, it is reasonable to recommend extended surgery for most patients with high risk hereditary colon cancer.

Magnetic resonance colonography for colorectal cancer screening in patients with Lynch syndrome gene mutation.

Lynch syndrome gene carriers have a 50-80% risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Current guidelines recommend yearly colonoscopy, with associated procedure-related risks. Magnetic resonance colonography (MRC) was evaluated as a non-invasive alternative for CRC screening in this high-risk population. Adult Lynch syndrome gene carriers underwent both screening procedures on the same day. MRI radiologists read the scans and rated image quality. Endoscopists performed colonoscopy unaware of MRC findings until after procedure completion. If lesions were detected, their number, size and location were noted. Post-procedure, patients compared discomfort and inconvenience of MRC and colonoscopy on a visual analogue scale. Thirty patients were recruited. 83% of the MRC scans were of adequate to good quality. MRC detected three lesions in three patients (70, 36, 17 mm). All 3 were independently detected on colonoscopy, excised and found to be CRC. MRC failed to detect a 3 mm CRC found on colonoscopy. CRC prevalence was 13%. Colonoscopy detected a further 30 polyps, all <10 mm. Of these, 17 were hyperplastic polyps and 10 normal mucosa. Colonoscopy had a false positive rate of 32% as defined by histology. MRC failed to detect any polyp <10 mm. Mean patient discomfort scores were 20% for MRC and 68% for colonoscopy, P = 0.003. Mean patient inconvenience scores were 54% for MRC and 52% for colonoscopy, P = 0.931. MRC was reliable in detecting large polyps, potentially CRC. However MRC currently has poor sensitivity in detecting small polyps, limiting its utility in adenoma screening at this time. MRC was associated with less discomfort than CC.

Surveillance of FAP: a prospective blinded comparison of capsule endoscopy and other GI imaging to detect small bowel polyps.

BACKGROUND: Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is a hereditary disorder characterized by polyposis along the gastrointestinal tract. Information on adenoma status below the duodenum has previously been restricted due to its inaccessibility in vivo. Capsule Endoscopy (CE) may provide a useful adjunct in screening for polyposis in the small bowel in FAP patients. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of CE in the assessment of patients with FAP, compared to other imaging modalities for the detection of small bowel polyps. METHOD: 20 consecutive patients with previously diagnosed FAP and duodenal polyps, presenting for routine surveillance of polyps at The Royal Melbourne Hospital were recruited. Each fasted patient initially underwent a magnetic resonance image (MRI) of the abdomen, and a barium small bowel follow-through study. Capsule Endoscopy was performed four weeks later on the fasted patient. An upper gastrointestinal side-viewing endoscopy was done one (1) to two (2) weeks after this. Endoscopists and investigators were blinded to results of other investigations and patient history. RESULTS: Within the stomach, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy found more polyps than other forms of imaging. SBFT and MRI generally performed poorly, identifying fewer polyps than both upper gastrointestinal and capsule endoscopy. CE was the only form of imaging that identified polyps in all segments of the small bowel as well as the only form of imaging able to provide multiple findings outside the stomach/duodenum. CONCLUSION: CE provides important information on possible polyp development distal to the duodenum, which may lead to surgical intervention. The place of CE as an adjunct in surveillance of FAP for a specific subset needs consideration and confirmation in replication studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000616370.