Development of a bedside score to predict dengue severity.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, New Caledonia experienced an outbreak of severe dengue causing high hospital burden (4379 cases, 416 hospital admissions, 15 deaths). We decided to build a local operational model predictive of dengue severity, which was needed to ease the healthcare circuit. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical and biological parameters associated with severe dengue in the cohort of patients hospitalized at the Territorial Hospital between January and July 2017 with confirmed dengue, in order to elaborate a comprehensive patient's score. Patients were compared in univariate and multivariate analyses. Predictive models for severity were built using a descending step-wise method. RESULTS: Out of 383 included patients, 130 (34%) developed severe dengue and 13 (3.4%) died. Major risk factors identified in univariate analysis were: age, comorbidities, presence of at least one alert sign, platelets count < 30 × 109/L, prothrombin time < 60%, AST and/or ALT > 10 N, and previous dengue infection. Severity was not influenced by the infecting dengue serotype nor by previous Zika infection. Two models to predict dengue severity were built according to sex. Best models for females and males had respectively a median Area Under the Curve = 0.80 and 0.88, a sensitivity = 84.5 and 84.5%, a specificity = 78.6 and 95.5%, a positive predictive value = 63.3 and 92.9%, a negative predictive value = 92.8 and 91.3%. Models were secondarily validated on 130 patients hospitalized for dengue in 2018. CONCLUSION: We built robust and efficient models to calculate a bedside score able to predict dengue severity in our setting. We propose the spreadsheet for dengue severity score calculations to health practitioners facing dengue outbreaks of enhanced severity in order to improve patients' medical management and hospitalization flow.

Viral evolution sustains a dengue outbreak of enhanced severity.

Compared to the previous 2013-2014 outbreak, dengue 2016-2017 outbreak in New Caledonia was characterized by an increased number of severe forms associated with hepatic presentations. In this study, we assessed the virological factors associated with this enhanced severity. Whole-genome sequences were retrieved from dengue virus (DENV)-1 strains collected in 2013-2014 and from severe and non-severe patients in 2016-2017. Fitness, hepatic tropism and cytopathogenicity of DENV 2016-2017 strains were compared to those of 2013-2014 strains using replication kinetics in the human hepatic cell line HuH7. Whole-genome sequencing identified four amino acid substitutions specific to 2016-2017 strains and absent from 2013-2014 strains. Three of these mutations occurred in predicted T cell epitopes, among which one was also a B cell epitope. Strains retrieved from severe forms did not exhibit specific genetic features. DENV strains from 2016-2017 exhibited a trend towards reduced replicative fitness and cytopathogenicity in vitro compared to strains from 2013-2014. Overall, the 2016-2017 dengue outbreak in New Caledonia was associated with a viral genetic evolution which had limited impact on DENV hepatic tropism and cytopathogenicity. These mutations, however, may have modified DENV strains antigenicity, altering the anti-DENV immune response in some patients, in turn favoring the development of severe forms.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04615364.