A data-driven medication score predicts 10-year mortality among aging adults.

Health differences among the elderly and the role of medical treatments are topical issues in aging societies. We demonstrate the use of modern statistical learning methods to develop a data-driven health measure based on 21 years of pharmacy purchase and mortality data of 12,047 aging individuals. The resulting score was validated with 33,616 individuals from two fully independent datasets and it is strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.18 per point increase in score; 95% CI 1.14-1.22; p = 2.25e-16). When combined with Charlson comorbidity index, individuals with elevated medication score and comorbidity index had over six times higher risk (HR 6.30; 95% CI 3.84-10.3; AUC = 0.802) compared to individuals with a protective score profile. Alone, the medication score performs similarly to the Charlson comorbidity index and is associated with polygenic risk for coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes.

Polygenic Hyperlipidemias and Coronary Artery Disease Risk.

BACKGROUND: Hyperlipidemia is a highly heritable risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). While monogenic familial hypercholesterolemia associates with severely increased CAD risk, it remains less clear to what extent a high polygenic load of a large number of LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol (LDL-C) or triglyceride (TG)-increasing variants associates with increased CAD risk. METHODS: We derived polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with ≈6M variants separately for LDL-C and TG with weights from a UK Biobank-based genome-wide association study with ≈324K samples. We evaluated the impact of polygenic hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia to lipid levels in 27 039 individuals from the National FINRISK Study (FINRISK) cohort and to CAD risk in 135 638 individuals (13 753 CAD cases) from the FinnGen project (FinnGen). RESULTS: In FINRISK, median LDL-C was 3.39 (95% CI, 3.38-3.40) mmol/L, and it ranged from 2.87 (95% CI, 2.82-2.94) to 3.78 (95% CI, 3.71-3.83) mmol/L between the lowest and highest 5% of the LDL-C PRS distribution. Median TG was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.18-1.20) mmol/L, ranging from 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-1.00) to 1.55 (95% CI, 1.48-1.61) mmol/L with the TG PRS. In FinnGen, comparing the highest 5% of the PRS to the lowest 95%, CAD odds ratio was 1.36 (95% CI, 1.24-1.49) for the LDL-C PRS and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.19-1.43) for the TG PRS. These estimates were only slightly attenuated when adjusting for a CAD PRS (odds ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.16-1.38] for LDL-C and 1.24 [95% CI, 1.13-1.36] for TG PRS). CONCLUSIONS: The CAD risk associated with a high polygenic load for lipid-increasing variants was proportional to their impact on lipid levels and partially overlapping with a CAD PRS. In contrast with a PRS for CAD, the lipid PRSs point to known and directly modifiable risk factors providing additional guidance for clinical translation.

Genomic prediction of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.

While polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to predict many diseases and risk factors, the potential of genomic prediction in harm caused by alcohol use has not yet been extensively studied. Here, we built a novel polygenic risk score of 1.1 million variants for alcohol consumption and studied its predictive capacity in 96,499 participants from the FinnGen study and 39,695 participants from prospective cohorts with detailed baseline data and up to 25 years of follow-up time. A 1 SD increase in the PRS was associated with 11.2 g (=0.93 drinks) higher weekly alcohol consumption (CI = 9.85-12.58 g, p = 2.3 × 10-58). The PRS was associated with alcohol-related morbidity (4785 incident events) and the risk estimate between the highest and lowest quintiles of the PRS was 1.83 (95% CI = 1.66-2.01, p = 1.6 × 10-36). When adjusted for self-reported alcohol consumption, education, marital status, and gamma-glutamyl transferase blood levels in 28,639 participants with comprehensive baseline data from prospective cohorts, the risk estimate between the highest and lowest quintiles of the PRS was 1.58 (CI = 1.26-1.99, p = 8.2 × 10-5). The PRS was also associated with all-cause mortality with a risk estimate of 1.33 between the highest and lowest quintiles (CI = 1.20-1.47, p = 4.5 × 10-8) in the adjusted model. In conclusion, the PRS for alcohol consumption independently associates for both alcohol-related morbidity and all-cause mortality. Together, these findings underline the importance of heritable factors in alcohol-related health burden while highlighting how measured genetic risk for an important behavioral risk factor can be used to predict related health outcomes.

Tuberculosis in people with rheumatic disease in Finland 1995-2007: a nationwide retrospective register study.

OBJECTIVES: RA and its medication, especially TNF-α inhibitors, increase the risk of clinical tuberculosis (TB) infection. We aimed to investigate the clinical manifestations, incidence and temporal changes in TB occurring concurrently with rheumatic diseases (RDs) between 1995 and 2007. METHODS: We combined the register of the Social Insurance Institution of Finland and the National Infectious Disease Register to find adult patients with reimbursed DMARDs and with a TB notification between 1995 and 2007. After reviewing the medical records, we described their clinical manifestations and medications, explored TB incidence trends using Poisson regression, and compared the incidence of TB with that of the general population. RESULTS: We identified 291 patients with both TB and rheumatic disease (RD), 196 of whom had RA. Between 1995 and 2007, the incidence of TB in adult RD decreased from 58.8 to 30.0 per 100 000 (trend P < 0.001, average marginal effect -3.4/100 000 per year, 95% CI -4.4, -2.4). Compared with the general population, the incidence was ∼4-fold. Among RD patients, pulmonary TB was the most common form of TB (72.6%). Disseminated TB was present in 56 (19.6%) patients. CONCLUSION: The incidence of TB among RD patients was ∼4-fold that of the general population, and it declined between 1995 and 2007. Disseminated TB was present in nearly 20% of patients.

5-year versus risk-category-specific screening intervals for cardiovascular disease prevention: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines suggest preventive interventions such as statin therapy for individuals with a high estimated 10-year risk of major cardiovascular events. For those with a low or intermediate estimated risk, risk-factor screenings are recommended at 5-year intervals; this interval is based on expert opinion rather than on direct research evidence. Using longitudinal data on the progression of cardiovascular disease risk over time, we compared different screening intervals in terms of timely detection of high-risk individuals, cardiovascular events prevented, and health-care costs. METHODS: We used data from participants in the British Whitehall II study (aged 40-64 years at baseline) who had repeated biomedical screenings at 5-year intervals and linked these data to electronic health records between baseline (Aug 7, 1991, to May 10, 1993) and June 30, 2015. We estimated participants' 10-year risk of a major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, cardiac death, and fatal or non-fatal stroke) using the revised Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculator. We used multistate Markov modelling to estimate optimum screening intervals on the basis of progression rates from low-risk and intermediate-risk categories to the high-risk category (ie, ≥7·5% 10-year risk of a major cardiovascular event). Our assessment criteria included person-years spent in a high-risk category before detection, the number of major cardiovascular events prevented and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and screening costs. FINDINGS: Of 6964 participants (mean age 50·0 years [SD 6·0] at baseline) with 152 700 person-years of follow-up (mean follow-up 22·0 years [SD 5·0]), 1686 participants progressed to the high-risk category and 617 had a major cardiovascular event. With the 5-year screening intervals, participants spent 7866 (95% CI 7130-8658) person-years unrecognised in the high-risk group. For individuals in the low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high risk categories, 21 alternative risk category-based screening intervals outperformed the 5-yearly screening protocol. Screening intervals at 7 years, 4 years, and 1 year for those in the low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high-risk category would reduce the number of person-years spent unrecognised in the high-risk group by 62% (95% CI 57-66; 4894 person-years), reduce the number of major cardiovascular events by 8% (7-9; 49 events), and raise 44 QALYs (40-49) for the study population. INTERPRETATION: In terms of timely preventive interventions, the 5-year screening intervals were unnecessarily frequent for low-risk individuals and insufficiently frequent for intermediate-risk individuals. Screening intervals based on risk-category-specific progression rates would perform better in terms of preventing major cardiovascular disease events and improving cost-effectiveness. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Association, National Institutes on Aging, NordForsk, Academy of Finland.