Global-to-Local Dependencies in Phosphorus Mass Flows and Markets: Pathways to Improving System Resiliency in Response to Exogenous Shocks.

Uneven global distribution of phosphate rock deposits and the supply chains to transport phosphorus (P) make P fertilizers vulnerable to exogenous shocks, including commodity market shocks; extreme weather events or natural disasters; and geopolitical instability, such as trade disputes, disruption of shipping routes, and war. Understanding bidirectional risk transmission (global-to-local and local-to-global) in P supply and consumption chains is thus essential. Ignoring P system interdependencies and associated risks could have major impacts on critical infrastructure operations and increase the vulnerability of global food systems. We highlight recent unanticipated events and cascading effects that have impacted P markets globally. We discuss the need to account for exogenous shocks in local assessments of P flows, policies, and infrastructure design choices. We also provide examples of how accounting for undervalued global risks to the P industry can hasten the transition to a sustainable P future. For example, leveraging internal P recycling loops, improving plant P use efficiency, and utilizing legacy soil P all enhance system resiliency in the face of exogenous shocks and long-term anticipated threats. Strategies applied at the local level, which are embedded within national and global policy systems, can have global-scale impacts in derisking the P supply chain.

Benchmarks for urine volume generation and phosphorus mass recovery in commercial and institutional buildings.

Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and necessary nutrient for agriculture. Urine contains a higher concentration of P than domestic wastewater, which can be recovered by source separation and treatment (hereafter urine diversion). Commercial and institutional (CI) buildings are a logical location for urine diversion since restrooms account for a substantial fraction of water use and wastewater generation. This study estimated the potential for P recovery from human urine and water savings from reduced flushing in CI buildings, and proposed an approach to identify building types and community layouts that are amenable to implementing urine diversion. The results showed that urine diversion is most advantageous in CI buildings with either high daily occupancy counts or times, such as hospitals, schools, office buildings, and airports. Per occupant P recovery benchmarks were estimated to be between 0.04-0.68 g/cap·d. Per building P recovery rates were estimated to be between 0.002-5.1 kg/d, and per building water savings were estimated to be between 3 and 23 % by volume. Recovered P in the form of phosphate fertilizer and potable water savings could accrue profits and cost reductions that could offset the capital costs of new urine diversion systems within 5 y of operation. Finally, urine diversion systems can be implemented at different levels of decentralization based on community layout and organizational structure, which will require socioeconomic and policy acceptance for wider adoption.

Perspective: Phosphorus monitoring must be rooted in sustainability frameworks spanning material scale to human scale.

Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource, and its environmental fate and transport is complex. With fertilizer prices expected to remain high for years and disruption to supply chains, there is a pressing need to recover and reuse P (primarily as fertilizer). Whether recovery is to occur from urban systems (e.g., human urine), agricultural soil (e.g., legacy P), or from contaminated surface waters, quantification of P in various forms is vital. Monitoring systems with embedded near real time decision support, so called cyber physical systems, are likely to play a major role in the management of P throughout agro-ecosystems. Data on P flow(s) connects the environmental, economic, and social pillars of the triple bottom line (TBL) sustainabilty framework. Emerging monitoring systems must account for complex interactions in the sample, and interface with a dynamic decision support system that considers adaptive dynamics to societal needs. It is known from decades of study that P is ubiquitous, yet without quantitative tools for studying the dynamic nature of P in the environment, the details may remain elusive. If new monitoring systems (including CPS and mobile sensors) are informed by sustainability frameworks, data-informed decision making may foster resource recovery and environmental stewardship from technology users to policymakers.